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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Matt Chapman (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
Expert
Recommendation
100%
Recommended by
51 of 51 experts
0%
Recommended by
0 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 30# 61
Best Rank# 9# 46
Worst Rank# 60# 94
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 33# 98
Best Rank# 30# 93
Worst Rank# 42# 122
   
Projections 
   
Runs8588
Home Runs3132
RBI9789
Stolen Bases22
Batting Average.274.251
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 51
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 67
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 31# 71
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 29# 79
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 34# 48
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 37# 57
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 62
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 9# 47
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 49
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 39# 71
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 41# 48
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 29# 66
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 29# 62
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 30# 68
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 60# 79
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 20# 55
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 41# 50
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 66
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 59
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 37# 60
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 19# 65
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 31# 55
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 24# 55
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 47# 59
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 64
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 32# 64
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 26# 52
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 41# 65
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 29# 69
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 29# 79
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 32# 72
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 60
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 18# 68
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 68
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 29# 64
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 45# 66
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 41# 79
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 53# 76
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 29# 64
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 20# 62
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 65
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 31# 72
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 40# 66
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 37# 94
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 19# 46
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 14# 67
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 31# 64
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 51# 54
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 33# 54
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 29# 59
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 42# 55
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats182142
   
Runs2322
   
Hits4633
   
Singles2912
   
Doubles99
   
Triples02
   
Home Runs810
   
RBI2625
   
Stolen Bases00
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks158
   
Strikeouts2054
   
Batting Average.253.232
   
On Base Pct.304.276
   
Slugging Pct.434.535
   
On-base Plus Slugging.738.812
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats571547
   
Runs8588
   
Hits155136
   
Singles9366
   
Doubles2933
   
Triples24
   
Home Runs3132
   
RBI9789
   
Stolen Bases22
   
Caught Stealing11
   
Walks6159
   
Strikeouts95159
   
Batting Average.274.251
   
On Base Pct.345.324
   
Slugging Pct.494.502
   
On-base Plus Slugging.839.826
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
News 
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in a 5-2 win over the Brewers on Monday night.
Lucas Spence
Mon, Sep 20th
Matt Chapman went 2-for-4 with one RBI, one run, one walk and one strikeout in the Athletics 3-2 extra-inning win on Sunday against the Angels.
Ari Koslow
Mon, Sep 20th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
Matt Chapman went 1-for-4 with one RBI and one strikeout in the Athletics 3-1 win on Saturday against the Angels.
Ari Koslow
Sun, Sep 19th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
A's 3B Matt Chapman (shin) remains sidelined on Thursday against the Royals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Sep 16th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
Matt Chapman went 1-for-4 with one RBI, one run and two strikeouts in the Athletics 5-1 win on Wednesday against the White Sox.
Ari Koslow
Thu, Sep 9th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a pair of RBI in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 7th
Matt Chapman went 0-for-2 with one walk and two strikeouts in the Athletics 8-0 loss on Sunday against Toronto.
Ari Koslow
Mon, Sep 6th
Notes 
 On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Chapman lost a significant chunk of his 2020 season to a torn labrum in his hip, and had surgery to repair the injury. It seems obvious that the injury was bothering him all year, as evidenced by his massive jump in strikeout rate (35.5%) and corresponding drop in walk rate. There's little reason to give Chapman's 2020 season any credence given what he'd shown the previous two years. Expect him to bounce back to the 30-homer bat with decent all-around production that we had come to expect, and enjoy the discount that his numbers from last year provide.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros