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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
31 of 51 experts
39%
Recommended by
20 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 30# 34
Best Rank# 9# 12
Worst Rank# 60# 65
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 33# 51
Best Rank# 30# 40
Worst Rank# 42# 54
   
Projections 
   
Runs8584
Home Runs3127
RBI9795
Stolen Bases23
Batting Average.274.288
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 40
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 38
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 31# 34
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 29# 54
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 33
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 9# 65
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 29# 50
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 29# 32
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 30# 37
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 20# 41
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 49
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 19# 41
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 24# 49
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 44
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 32# 33
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 29# 33
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 29# 31
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 32# 38
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 18# 44
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 44
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 29# 31
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 29# 31
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 20# 25
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 37
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 31# 42
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 40# 41
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 37# 42
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 19# 59
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 14# 28
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 31# 35
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 29# 37
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 26# 20
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 31# 23
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 29
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 33# 32
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 34# 27
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 18
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 37# 33
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 37# 23
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 37
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 39# 32
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 41# 32
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 41# 27
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 41# 35
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 41# 12
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 42# 37
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 45# 29
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 47# 41
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 51# 35
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 53# 18
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 60# 23
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats182221
   
Runs2334
   
Hits4658
   
Singles2934
   
Doubles913
   
Triples02
   
Home Runs89
   
RBI2633
   
Stolen Bases02
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks1520
   
Strikeouts2038
   
Batting Average.253.262
   
On Base Pct.304.329
   
Slugging Pct.434.462
   
On-base Plus Slugging.738.791
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats571554
   
Runs8584
   
Hits155158
   
Singles9395
   
Doubles2932
   
Triples23
   
Home Runs3127
   
RBI9795
   
Stolen Bases23
   
Caught Stealing11
   
Walks6156
   
Strikeouts95101
   
Batting Average.274.288
   
On Base Pct.345.354
   
Slugging Pct.494.502
   
On-base Plus Slugging.839.856
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
News 
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-8 with a solo home run and three runs scored across both games of Saturday's doubleheader versus Baltimore.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 12th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Thursday's 6-4 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 10th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a pair of RBI in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 7th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with a solo home run in Monday's 8-0 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 7th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-5 with a pair of home runs in a 15-4 blowout win over the Brewers on Friday night.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 4th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 at the plate with a pair of runs in Sunday's 8-0 win over Oakland.
John Aubin
Mon, Sep 6th
Notes 
 On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros