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Who Should I Draft?

Patrick Corbin or Aaron Nola (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Patrick Corbin
SP - WSH
Patrick Corbin
Expert
Recommendation
100%
Recommended by
50 of 50 experts
0%
Recommended by
0 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 8# 44
Best Rank# 3# 17
Worst Rank# 13# 88
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 22# 125
Best Rank# 22# 95
Worst Rank# 25# 137
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts222192
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.563.99
WHIP1.171.27
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 37
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 50
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 9# 37
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 9# 17
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 5# 48
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 9# 49
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 51
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 7# 23
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 83
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 35
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 10# 27
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 42
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 9# 39
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 8# 47
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 11# 30
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 6# 43
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 48
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 6# 41
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 13# 49
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 8# 55
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 7# 44
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 7# 62
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 7# 81
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 6# 31
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 7# 61
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 6# 35
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 7# 32
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 8# 51
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 39
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 3# 55
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 28
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 4# 43
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 39
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 7# 46
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 46
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 12# 44
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 12# 88
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 7# 41
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 6# 54
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 4# 45
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 9# 55
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 10# 36
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 7# 63
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 7# 40
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 9# 26
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 8# 45
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 8# 65
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 5# 44
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 8# 34
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 12# 88
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Patrick Corbin
SP - WSH
Patrick Corbin
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1211
   
Games Started1211
   
Innings Pitched71.266.3
   
Wins52
   
Losses57
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed5485
   
Earned Runs2634
   
Home Runs Allowed910
   
Strikeouts9660
   
Walks2318
   
ERA3.284.66
   
WHIP1.081.57
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Patrick Corbin
SP - WSH
Patrick Corbin
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3131
   
Games Started3131
   
Innings Pitched190.0183.5
   
Wins1312
   
Losses910
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed161179
   
Earned Runs7581
   
Home Runs Allowed2425
   
Strikeouts222192
   
Walks6054
   
ERA3.563.99
   
WHIP1.171.27
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Patrick Corbin
SP - WSH
Patrick Corbin
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on five hits and two walks while striking out 10 over six innings in Tuesday's win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The win brings him to 3-1 on the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, May 5th
In Friday's 11-4 win against the Yankees, Patrick Corbin recorded his second quality start in a row. Corbin allowed four hits, three earned runs, and zero walks with two strikeouts in six innings. He also allowed 11 hard-hit batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ mph.
Corbin Young
Fri, May 7th
 Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out four in Saturday's win over the Rockies. The win brings him to 2-1 on the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sun, Apr 25th
In Saturday's 7-2 win, Patrick Corbin tossed a quality start and earned his first win of the season. Corbin allowed four hits, two earned runs, and four walks with four strikeouts in seven innings.
Corbin Young
Sat, May 1st
 Phillies ace Aaron Nola tossed a complete game shutout in Sunday's win over the St. Louis Cardinals, striking out ten while allowing to hits and no walks.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Mon, Apr 19th
In the Nationals 4-0 loss to the Mets, Patrick Corbin struggled once again and went 0-3 on the season. Corbin allowed seven hits, four earned runs, and three walks with three strikeouts in four innings.
Corbin Young
Sun, Apr 25th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over five innings in Tuesday's loss to the New York Mets.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Apr 14th
In Tuesday's 3-2 win against the Cardinals, Patrick Corbin bounced back with six scoreless innings. Corbin allowed four hits and zero walks with five strikeouts. Before this start, Corbin allowed 16 total earned runs in two starts with seven walks and six strikeouts combined.
Corbin Young
Tue, Apr 20th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on six hits and two walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets on Wednesday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Apr 8th
In Thursday's 11-6 loss to the Diamondbacks, Patrick Corbin got rocked for nine earned runs across two innings. He allowed six hits, nine earned runs, four walks, and three home runs with only one strikeout.
Corbin Young
Thu, Apr 15th
Notes 
 Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Corbin had a disastrous 2020 season, during which he went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. His strikeout rate plummeted, and his velocity dropped significantly, with his fastball seeing a dip of almost two miles per hour. Corbin leans heavily into his slider, and he needs it to be pristine to be an effective pitcher. And although it wasn't a terrible pitch in 2020, the swinging strike rate on it dropped from 28.1% to 21.2%, and the whiff rate from 52% to just 38.2%. If the loss in velocity and effectiveness of his slider were entirely due to the oddities of the shortened season, then Corbin is going to be a major value in drafts this year. But if not, then his days as a "set it and forget it" starter are likely over. Monitor Corbin's performance this spring, particularly with his velocity. If it's back up to prior levels, then push him up your board significantly.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros