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Who Should I Draft?

Rafael Devers or Bryce Harper (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Expert
Recommendation
96%
Recommended by
49 of 51 experts
4%
Recommended by
2 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 11# 19
Best Rank# 7# 13
Worst Rank# 24# 58
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 18# 40
Best Rank# 17# 35
Worst Rank# 18# 45
   
Projections 
   
Runs10395
Home Runs3631
RBI104101
Stolen Bases145
Batting Average.266.282
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 27
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 22
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 12# 20
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 14# 34
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 14# 17
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 11# 26
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 11# 19
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 7# 58
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 19
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 11# 17
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 12# 15
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 12# 21
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 13# 21
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 12# 19
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 13# 24
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 18
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 11# 21
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 11# 24
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 12# 17
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 13# 24
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 11# 17
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 10# 25
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 13# 23
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 11# 24
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 11# 23
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 11# 24
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 11# 28
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 11# 27
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 12# 17
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 11# 20
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 13# 29
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 23
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 11# 21
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 11# 23
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 10# 18
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 7# 33
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 11# 22
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 11# 22
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 12# 22
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 18# 30
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 8# 16
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 12# 27
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 12# 24
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 11# 29
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 11# 22
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 9# 27
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 11# 17
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 12# 15
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 11# 19
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 13
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 24# 17
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats190232
   
Runs4132
   
Hits5161
   
Singles2733
   
Doubles916
   
Triples21
   
Home Runs1311
   
RBI3343
   
Stolen Bases80
   
Caught Stealing20
   
Walks4913
   
Strikeouts4367
   
Batting Average.268.263
   
On Base Pct.420.311
   
Slugging Pct.542.483
   
On-base Plus Slugging.962.793
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats536589
   
Runs10395
   
Hits141165
   
Singles7391
   
Doubles3040
   
Triples23
   
Home Runs3631
   
RBI104101
   
Stolen Bases145
   
Caught Stealing43
   
Walks11145
   
Strikeouts155138
   
Batting Average.266.282
   
On Base Pct.394.334
   
Slugging Pct.527.518
   
On-base Plus Slugging.920.852
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
News 
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 3-for-5 with a double, two RBI, and an inside-the-park home run in Tuesday's loss to the Nationals. The homer was his 16th of the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Jul 28th
Rafael Devers left Wednesday's game with an apparent hamstring injury. Devers was rubbing his right hamstring after running the bases. It sounds like it was precautionary after playing in both doubleheader games.
Corbin Young
Wed, Jul 28th
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 with a double, a walk, a run scored, and three stolen bases in Friday's win over the Braves.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Jul 24th
Rafael Devers went 2-for-4 with a home run in Monday's win over Toronto.
Liam Gibney
Tue, Jul 27th
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 1-for-4 with a walk in Sunday's win over the Marlins.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Mon, Jul 19th
Rafael Devers went 2-for-4 with two home runs, five RBIs, and two runs scored.
Liam Gibney
Sat, Jul 24th
 Bryce Harper's two hits were a double and a single, as he secured two RBIs and a run scored on the day.
Ethan Biddle
Sun, Jul 11th
Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers launched his 24th homer of the season in Wednesday's 7-4 win over the Blue Jays.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jul 22nd
 Bryce Harper went 1-for-4 with an RBI single on Friday.
Ethan Biddle
Sat, Jul 10th
Rafael Devers went 1-for-4 with a home run, and two runs scored on Monday.
Liam Gibney
Tue, Jul 20th
Notes 
 In 157 games in Harper's first year with the Phillies, he batted .260 with 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBI, and 15 steals. In 2020, his 157-game pace was .268 with 35 home runs, 111 runs, 89 RBI, and 21 steals. In other words, Harper provides an incredibly safe baseline now with Philadelphia, and fantasy managers can expect roughly 35 home runs, 15-20 steals, and 220 combined runs and RBI. There were some gains for Harper in 2020, as he walked more and struck out less than he ever had in his career, and hit the ball as hard as ever. But there's no reason to expect much growth in Harper's surface numbers at this point. Take the incredibly high floor in the second round and be happy with it.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Devers' 2020 season was . . . fine. That's about the best you can say about it. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, and he increased his barrel rate significantly. His counting stat paces from his breakout 2019 season went down, but not dramatically so (other than his batting average), and fantasy managers never felt like Devers was a drain on their teams. But, at the same time, his already poor walk rate declined, his strikeout rate jumped to a career worst, and he didn't even attempt a single stolen base. Devers is just 24 years old, so there is plenty of upside for him. The safest course of action is to build in some natural regression from Devers' strong 2019 season, and pencil him in for roughly 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. That still makes him an asset to any fantasy team.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Harper's 2020 Statcast data wound up being better than his 2015 unanimous MVP campaign. The 28-year-old has become somewhat of a saber-metric darling as his batting average, RBIs, and runs don't also jump off the page. Of course, those stats are pretty relevant for fantasy purposes. While Harper has been running more since his arrival to Philadelphia (15 steals in '19 and eight stolen bases last summer), he just isn't as valuable in traditional 5x5 roto as he is in points leagues or category leagues that utilize OBP. The Statcast data is STRONG, however, and public perception hasn't seem to catch on just yet. Harper is going to be an early-round target of mine, particularly in points and OBP leagues.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Just like in 2019, Devers got off to a slow start last season. He posted a weak .543 OPS over his first 14 games before coming to life with an .868 mark over his final 43 contests. Devers' O-swing has increased every year that he has been in the league, up to 42.3% in 2020. His breakout 2019 saw him make contact on an unsustainable number of pitchers outside the zone. The young third baseman is able to do damage on anything he makes contact with, but he needs to decrease the amount of strikeout to become a consistently elite hitter.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
  Devers would be more appealing if he stole bases more often, but batting in the middle of the mediocre Red Sox lineup does not scream huge season. He is a fine pick, but not someone primed to break out.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy