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Who Should I Draft?

Rafael Devers or Luis Castillo (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
55%
Recommended by
30 of 55 experts
45%
Recommended by
25 of 55 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 28# 31
Best Rank# 16# 18
Worst Rank# 84# 58
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 40# 27
Best Rank# 35# 24
Worst Rank# 45# 38
   
Projections 
   
Runs95
Home Runs3121
RBI101
Stolen Bases5
Batting Avg.282
Strikeouts138216
Wins13
Saves0
ERA3.52
WHIP1.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 40
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 43# 58
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 19# 45
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 33# 48
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 29# 33
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 33# 38
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 20# 56
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 20# 37
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 30# 36
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 28# 32
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 36
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 31# 37
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 24# 36
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 35# 39
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 26# 29
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 36# 42
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 33# 39
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 34# 46
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 26# 29
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 26# 31
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 45# 53
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 33# 47
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 30# 33
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 43# 44
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 22# 41
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 31# 41
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 40# 42
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 23# 26
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 19# 47
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 28# 50
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 28# 26
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 28# 24
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 28# 23
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 29# 26
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 31# 30
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 31# 29
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 32# 27
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 32# 25
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 32# 22
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 34# 25
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 34# 23
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 34# 29
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 35# 24
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 35# 34
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 35# 34
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 36# 20
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 38# 25
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 39# 22
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 40# 20
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 26
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 42# 23
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 42# 24
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 42# 21
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 42# 18
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 84# 35
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs32
   
Home Runs115
   
RBI43
   
Stolen Bases0
   
Batting Avg.263
   
Strikeouts6789
   
Wins4
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.34
   
WHIP1.23
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs95
   
Home Runs3121
   
RBI101
   
Stolen Bases5
   
Batting Avg.282
   
Strikeouts138216
   
Wins13
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.52
   
WHIP1.18
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers (shoulder) is absent from Tuesday's lineup against the Tigers.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, May 4th
Luis Castillo (1-3) took the loss Saturday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on eight hits and one walk in 5.1 innings. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, May 1st
 Rafael Devers went 1-for-3 with a home run and a walk on Friday.
Liam Gibney
Sat, May 1st
Luis Castillo (1-2) allowed four runs on six hits and one walk across five innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Sunday. He struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Apr 25th
 Rafael Devers drove in the only run for the Red Sox with a double in the sixth inning. He finished 1-for-4 on the day with an RBI.
Liam Gibney
Fri, Apr 30th
Luis Castillo did not factor in the decision in Tuesday/Wednesday's loss to the Diamondbacks. He allowed three runs (one earned) on seven hits and three walks, while striking out four.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 21st
 Rafael Devers went 2-for-3 with a double as the Red Sox beat the Mets 1-0 on Wednesday evening.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Apr 29th
Luis Castillo allowed four runs on seven hits -- including two home runs -- over five innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Tuesday. He struck out seven and walked none.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 14th
 Rafael Devers went 2-for-4 with an RBI double as the Red Sox fell tot he Mariners on Saturday afternoon.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Apr 24th
Luis Castillo (1-1) earned the win Wednesday against the Pirates. He threw seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits and one walk. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 7th
Notes 
 Devers' 2020 season was . . . fine. That's about the best you can say about it. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, and he increased his barrel rate significantly. His counting stat paces from his breakout 2019 season went down, but not dramatically so (other than his batting average), and fantasy managers never felt like Devers was a drain on their teams. But, at the same time, his already poor walk rate declined, his strikeout rate jumped to a career worst, and he didn't even attempt a single stolen base. Devers is just 24 years old, so there is plenty of upside for him. The safest course of action is to build in some natural regression from Devers' strong 2019 season, and pencil him in for roughly 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. That still makes him an asset to any fantasy team.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Castillo turned in another excellent season last year, cutting his walk rate and striking out batters at a higher rate than he ever had in his career. His WHIP increased to a career-worst 1.23, but that was largely due to bad luck, as batters hit .232 against him despite an expected batting average of just .212. Nevertheless, Castillo kept runs off the board, largely because he was able to avoid home runs (just five in 70 innings) and limit free passes. Castillo is capable of fronting a fantasy pitching staff, though he's more of a low-end ace, and there are plenty of trade rumors following him around. But, given his reliable production and increased strikeout rate the past two seasons, he can be drafted with confidence.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Just like in 2019, Devers got off to a slow start last season. He posted a weak .543 OPS over his first 14 games before coming to life with an .868 mark over his final 43 contests. Devers' O-swing has increased every year that he has been in the league, up to 42.3% in 2020. His breakout 2019 saw him make contact on an unsustainable number of pitchers outside the zone. The young third baseman is able to do damage on anything he makes contact with, but he needs to decrease the amount of strikeout to become a consistently elite hitter.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
 
 Devers would be more appealing if he stole bases more often, but batting in the middle of the mediocre Red Sox lineup does not scream huge season. He is a fine pick, but not someone primed to break out.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy