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Who Should I Draft?

Sonny Gray or Charlie Morton (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
Charlie Morton
SP - ATL
Charlie Morton
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
32 of 51 experts
37%
Recommended by
19 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 28# 31
Best Rank# 16# 15
Worst Rank# 120# 64
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 90# 107
Best Rank# 80# 102
Worst Rank# 111# 122
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts179171
Wins1111
Saves00
ERA3.793.71
WHIP1.221.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 25# 36
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 20# 35
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 19# 64
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 28
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 20# 30
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 22# 34
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 22# 40
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 25# 26
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 27# 32
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 25# 33
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 21# 40
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 31# 41
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 23# 30
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 31# 47
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 28# 34
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 33# 35
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 28# 32
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 17# 53
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 16# 50
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 20# 63
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 28# 31
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 19# 26
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 20# 42
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 35# 41
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 23# 37
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 21# 40
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 26# 29
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 27# 31
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 28# 31
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 18# 40
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 22# 24
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 32# 34
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 16# 15
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 31# 29
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 31# 27
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 31# 20
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 32# 30
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 34# 29
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 35# 20
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 35# 24
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 39# 38
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 41# 32
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 43# 25
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 43# 33
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 44# 31
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 46# 27
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 30
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 49# 32
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 49# 26
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 50# 40
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 120# 31
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
Charlie Morton
SP - ATL
Charlie Morton
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played119
   
Games Started119
   
Innings Pitched56.238.2
   
Wins52
   
Losses32
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed4243
   
Earned Runs2320
   
Home Runs Allowed44
   
Strikeouts7242
   
Walks2610
   
ERA3.704.74
   
WHIP1.211.39
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
Charlie Morton
SP - ATL
Charlie Morton
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2929
   
Games Started2929
   
Innings Pitched157.6154.7
   
Wins1111
   
Losses87
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed132138
   
Earned Runs6664
   
Home Runs Allowed1918
   
Strikeouts179171
   
Walks5947
   
ERA3.793.71
   
WHIP1.221.20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Sonny Gray
SP - CIN
Sonny Gray
Charlie Morton
SP - ATL
Charlie Morton
News 
 Sonny Gray did not factor into the decision Friday against the Nationals, allowing four runs on five hits in four innings. He walked four and struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
Charlie Morton pitched six innings against the Diamondbacks Thursday, allowing five hits, three runs (all earned), and two walks while striking out eight batters. The start was a no-decision for him, but he did earn a quality start. Morton threw 96 pitches, 65 for strikes, and carries a 3.53 ERA.
Steve Painter
Thu, Sep 23rd
 Sonny Gray (7-8) was saddled with the loss Saturday against the Dodgers, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 18th
Charlie Morton pitched five innings against the Giants Saturday, allowing four hits, two runs (both earned), and three walks while striking out three batters. The Braves offense was held scoreless, and Morton got the loss, his record is now 13-6 on the year. He threw 97 pitches, 51 for strikes, and carries a 3.49 ERA.
Steve Painter
Sun, Sep 19th
 Sonny Gray (7-7) took the loss Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing two runs on three hits and one walk in seven innings. He struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 12th
Charlie Morton pitched seven innings against the Marlins Friday, allowing six hits and three runs (all earned) while striking out seven batters. While he didn't get the win, he did earn another quality start. Morton threw 91 pitches, 64 for strikes, and carries a 3.49 ERA.
Steve Painter
Sat, Sep 11th
 Sonny Gray did not factor into the decision in Monday's loss to the Cubs, allowing three runs (two earned) on three hits in five innings. He struck out eight and walked none.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Sep 6th
Charlie Morton and the Braves agreed to a one year, $20 million contract extension on Monday. The deal also includes a club option for 2023 with $20 million as well.
Chris Schommer
Mon, Sep 6th
 Sonny Gray (7-6) picked up the win Wednesday against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the doubleheader. He allowed two runs on two hits across five innings. He walked none and struck out three.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 1st
Charlie Morton pitched seven innings against the Rockies Sunday, allowing two hits, two runs (both earned), and two walks while striking four batters out. The Braves offense was loud in this one, and Morton's record improved to 13-5 on the year, and he also earned another start. He threw 89 pitches, 60 for strikes, and carries a 3.47 ERA.
Steve Painter
Sun, Sep 5th
Notes 
 Two dreadful starts late in the season severely hurt what was otherwise a strong 2020 campaign for Gray, though it was a bizarre year. His strikeout rate surpassed 30% for the first time in his career, while his walk rate jumped to 11.1%. He was also far more hittable, particularly his slider and curveball, which had been dominant pitches in 2019. But even if Gray simply repeats his 2020 season, his strikeout rate and decent ERA and WHIP should be enough to make him a borderline SP2 for fantasy leagues. He will likely begin the year on the IL after experiencing back spasms in mid-March, but the injury doesn't sound like it will keep him out for long. Considering we've seen much more than that from him in 2019, fantasy managers should have little hesitation drafting him.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Morton's 2020 numbers were poor, without question. He was limited to just 38 regular season innings because of a shoulder injury, and pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. His velocity was way down early in the season (when he got hit hard) and trickled up after he returned, but he got back to his normal 95 MPH fastball in the postseason and totaled a 2.70 ERA. Now 37 and with the Braves, the question is whether fantasy managers can write off Morton's down 2020 season considering his sterling post-season, or whether his age and injury history means they should avoid him. In reality, the answer is neither. Morton should still have gas left in the tank considering his playoff run, but should only be drafted as a value, meaning no earlier than a low-end SP3. Grab him there, at which point the risk-reward balance should reach an equilibrium.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros