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Who Should I Draft?

Starling Marte or Nolan Arenado (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Starling Marte
CF - MIA
Starling Marte
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
68%
Recommended by
34 of 50 experts
32%
Recommended by
16 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 29# 30
Best Rank# 18# 9
Worst Rank# 56# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 53# 33
Best Rank# 42# 30
Worst Rank# 58# 42
   
Projections 
   
Runs8585
Home Runs1931
RBI7197
Stolen Bases242
Batting Average.278.274
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL10-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 32
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 27# 31
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 23# 29
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 21# 37
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 29# 31
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 26# 36
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 30# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 34# 41
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 28# 29
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 44# 60
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 37# 41
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 31# 33
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 35# 37
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 19# 24
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 29# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 32# 36
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 30# 32
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 34# 41
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 27# 29
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 28# 29
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 27# 32
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 23# 38
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 28# 29
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 44# 45
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 28# 41
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 35# 53
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 23# 29
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 27# 31
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 39# 40
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 24# 37
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 30# 31
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 23# 51
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 20# 33
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 29# 42
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 27# 20
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 29# 15
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 30# 28
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 30# 26
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 31# 14
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 32# 19
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 32# 29
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 32# 9
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 33# 30
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 33# 17
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 33# 31
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 35# 19
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 41# 29
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 44# 34
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 47# 26
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 56# 20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Starling Marte
CF - MIA
Starling Marte
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats228182
   
Runs3623
   
Hits6446
   
Singles4329
   
Doubles149
   
Triples10
   
Home Runs68
   
RBI2726
   
Stolen Bases100
   
Caught Stealing20
   
Walks1215
   
Strikeouts4120
   
Batting Average.281.253
   
On Base Pct.340.304
   
Slugging Pct.430.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging.770.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Starling Marte
CF - MIA
Starling Marte
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats568571
   
Runs8585
   
Hits157155
   
Singles10493
   
Doubles3029
   
Triples42
   
Home Runs1931
   
RBI7197
   
Stolen Bases242
   
Caught Stealing71
   
Walks3161
   
Strikeouts11295
   
Batting Average.278.274
   
On Base Pct.316.345
   
Slugging Pct.445.494
   
On-base Plus Slugging.761.839
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Starling Marte
CF - MIA
Starling Marte
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
 Starling Marte will take dry swings this weekend as he works his way back from a rib injury.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, May 7th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs scored against his former team on Sunday afternoon.
Lucas Spence
Sun, May 9th
 After sustaining a non-displaced left rib fracture two weeks ago, Starling Marte has been unable to resume baseball activities.
Andy Zimmerman
Tue, May 4th
Nolan Arenado came to the plate in the third inning on Monday, trailing 5-2 with two on and two out, and unloaded a three-run home run to left field off of Mets starter Joey Lucchesi to tie the game. Arenado finished the evening 1-for-3 with a walk as well.
Lucas Spence
Tue, May 4th
 Starling Marte was placed on the 10-day IL with a non displaced rib fracture on April 20th. Reports came out Monday that he was still dealing with a good deal of pain in his side. Therefore, the timetable for his return remains unclear.
Liam Gibney
Mon, Apr 26th
Nolan Arenado went 3-for-4 with a walk, a single, a double, a triple, two runs scored, and three RBI in a 12-5 win over the Pirates on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, May 1st
 Marlins OF Starling Marte underwent an MRI which revealed a non-displace fracture on his rib.
Brad Camara
Mon, Apr 19th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-5 with two doubles and two RBI in a 7-3 win over the Pirates on Friday.
Lucas Spence
Fri, Apr 30th
 Starling Marte left Sunday's game against the Giants after an awkward swing. He was clutching his left side.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Apr 18th
Nolan Arenado made his presence felt all over the field on Tuesday, going 2-for-4 with two doubles and an RBI while also making a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch in foul territory to retire Bryce Harper.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Apr 28th
Notes 
 Marte's getting a little old for a player to rely on for stolen bases, and although fantasy managers need to start lowering their expectations as he enters his age-32 season, there should be enough left in the tank for him to be productive. He ranked in the top 11% in sprint speed last year and was caught stealing just twice in 10 attempts. The quality of his contact declined fairly significantly, however, and considering he now plays in Miami, anything more than 15 home runs should be considered gravy. But he'll likely continue to chip in for all five rotisserie categories and be an asset in both stolen bases and batting average, two difficult categories to fill. Again, temper expectations a bit against his historical production, but fantasy managers can still draft him with confidence.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
  Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros