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Who Should I Draft?

Trevor Bauer or Aaron Nola (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Trevor Bauer
SP - LAD
Trevor Bauer
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Expert
Recommendation
78%
Recommended by
40 of 51 experts
22%
Recommended by
11 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 5# 8
Best Rank# 2# 3
Worst Rank# 20# 13
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 14# 22
Best Rank# 13# 22
Worst Rank# 14# 25
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts232222
Wins1513
Saves00
ERA3.453.56
WHIP1.111.17
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertRST-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 7
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 8
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 6# 9
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 7# 9
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 9
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 4# 7
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 6# 7
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 4# 9
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 5# 10
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 3# 7
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 7# 9
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 4# 8
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 4# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 7# 8
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 4# 6
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 4# 13
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 6# 8
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 4# 7
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 6# 7
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 4# 7
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 4# 7
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 5# 6
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 4# 8
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 4# 7
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 8# 9
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 4# 7
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 4# 7
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 6# 7
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 4# 12
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 11# 12
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 4# 6
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 7# 9
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 5# 10
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 6# 7
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 2# 7
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 5# 9
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 5# 8
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 7# 8
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 4# 5
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 5# 8
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 6# 4
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 7# 6
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 7# 6
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 8# 7
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 9# 4
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 9# 5
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 10# 7
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 8
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 10# 7
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 13# 3
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 20# 12
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Trevor Bauer
SP - LAD
Trevor Bauer
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1112
   
Games Started1112
   
Innings Pitched73.171.2
   
Wins55
   
Losses45
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed4154
   
Earned Runs1426
   
Home Runs Allowed99
   
Strikeouts10096
   
Walks1723
   
ERA1.733.28
   
WHIP0.791.08
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Trevor Bauer
SP - LAD
Trevor Bauer
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3131
   
Games Started3131
   
Innings Pitched193.5190.0
   
Wins1513
   
Losses89
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156161
   
Earned Runs7475
   
Home Runs Allowed2624
   
Strikeouts232222
   
Walks5960
   
ERA3.453.56
   
WHIP1.111.17
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Trevor Bauer
SP - LAD
Trevor Bauer
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
News 
 Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer’s leave has been extended to September 3.
Brad Camara
Fri, Aug 27th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in Wednesday's loss to the Atlanta Braves.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Sep 30th
 Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer’s leave will be extended to August 13.
Brad Camara
Thu, Aug 5th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight over six innings in Thursday's win over the Pirates.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 24th
 Trevor Bauer’s administrative leave has been extended through Aug. 6, according to multiple reports. Bauer's hearing last week on an ex-parte temporary restraining order was postponed to Aug 2, 3, and 19. The investigation into him and the alleged sexual assault, both by Pasadena PD and by MLB, remains active, according to The Athletic's Britt Ghiroli.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Tue, Jul 27th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on six hits and no walks while striking out six over five innings in Tuesday's loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Sep 8th
 Trevor Bauer’s administrative leave has been extended by nearly two weeks to July 27, according to a report from ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Jul 14th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 3rd
 Major League Baseball extended Dodgers RHP Trevor Bauer’s administrative leave by an additional seven days.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jul 8th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on three hits and no walks while striking out seven over 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Friday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Aug 28th
Notes 
 Over the past few seasons the time to invest in Bauer has been when his ADP has dipped, and not when he's coming off a career-year. However, the spin rate on his fastball increased so much in 2020 that I feel a lot better about projecting him moving forward. It's fair to assume he was using sticky stuff, but so is everyone else. There's little reason to think he'll stop using it, which is why he easily checks in as my SP4. Additionally, the Dodgers are letting Bauer be himself this spring. He's controversial for a lot of reasons, but ultimately profiles as a true fantasy ace.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Bauer capped off a Cy Young season by signing a massive deal with the Dodgers. There's no other way to describe Bauer's 2020 season other than utterly dominant. A 1.73 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 36% strikeout rate. Notably, the spin rate on almost all of his pitched jumped dramatically, and every single one of them was more effective than we'd previously seen. Bauer had an outstanding season in 2018 and followed it up with a sub-par 2019, so we shouldn't take for granted that he'll be the best pitcher in baseball for the second season in a row. But on the best team in baseball with a near bulletproof 2020 resume, he should be drafted as a top-five starter and a second-round pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros