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Who Should I Draft?

Tyler Mahle or Craig Kimbrel (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
Expert
Recommendation
53%
Recommended by
27 of 51 experts
47%
Recommended by
24 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 56# 61
Best Rank# 36# 35
Worst Rank# 109# 108
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 173# 164
Best Rank# 162# 153
Worst Rank# 215# 233
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts15579
Wins83
Saves024
ERA4.443.65
WHIP1.281.21
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 55# 108
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 57# 61
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 53# 72
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 55# 58
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 71# 76
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 72# 83
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 52# 69
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 52# 58
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 51# 54
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 55# 63
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 52# 71
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 51# 86
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 58# 73
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 64# 89
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 36# 63
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 63# 68
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 56# 68
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 49# 98
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 65
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 55# 62
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 50# 58
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 68# 75
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 57# 80
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 52# 58
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 68# 87
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 68# 103
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 36# 98
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 53# 50
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 56# 55
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 59# 58
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 60# 48
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 61# 55
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 61# 54
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 62# 51
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 63# 54
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 64# 35
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 65# 61
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 65# 64
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 66# 64
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 68# 47
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 72# 65
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 72# 63
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 72# 58
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 76# 59
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 77# 63
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 80# 39
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 81# 67
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 82# 74
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 97# 70
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 103# 42
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 109# 52
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1018
   
Games Started90
   
Innings Pitched48.315.0
   
Wins20
   
Losses21
   
Saves02
   
Blown Saves01
   
Holds03
   
Hits Allowed3510
   
Earned Runs219
   
Home Runs Allowed62
   
Strikeouts6028
   
Walks2112
   
ERA3.975.28
   
WHIP1.171.43
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2856
   
Games Started270
   
Innings Pitched143.454.1
   
Wins83
   
Losses92
   
Saves024
   
Blown Saves011
   
Holds04
   
Hits Allowed13640
   
Earned Runs7122
   
Home Runs Allowed248
   
Strikeouts15579
   
Walks4826
   
ERA4.443.65
   
WHIP1.281.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
News 
 Tyler Mahle (12-5) earned the win Thursday against the Pirates, tossing six shutout innings while allowing five hits and one walk. He struck out four.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 16th
Craig Kimbrel had a rough ninth inning, allowing a one out double followed by two walks and a sacrifice fly that scored a run. He did chip in two strikeouts though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
 Tyler Mahle did not factor into the decision Friday against the Cardinals, allowing two runs on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
Craig Kimbrel pitched the seventh inning on Saturday, allowing one hit while striking out three batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
 Tyler Mahle (11-5) earned the win Saturday against the Tigers, allowing four runs on six hits across five innings. He walked five and struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
Craig Kimbrel came into the ninth with a seven run lead but ended up giving up three earned runs on two hits and a walk. He would strike out two batters though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Aug 28th
 Tyler Mahle (10-5) took the tough-luck loss Sunday against the Marlins, allowing two runs on four hits across seven innings. He walked two and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Aug 29th
Craig Kimbrel pitched one inning, allowing one hit while also striking out one batter to earn his 24th save of the season and first with the White Sox.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Fri, Aug 27th
 Tyler Mahle did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's loss to Milwaukee, allowing one run on five hits and one walk in 5.2 innings. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 25th
Craig Kimbrel didn't allow a ball to leave the infield on Monday, but lost the game after an infield hit, a wild pitch, a sacrifice ground ball, and another wild pitch. He would also walk a batter and strike out two.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 24th
Notes 
 Mahle's solid 2020 season (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) will probably slip under the radar, but there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about him with a guaranteed spot in the Reds rotation. His strikeout rate jumped to 30% on the back of a 4.4% increase in his swinging strike rate, and he had just a .188 expected batting average against, top 10% in the league. The biggest change for Mahle was that he brought back a slider that he had shelved entirely in 2019, and batters hit just .180 against the pitch with a .249 wOBA. He could do well to cut down on his walks a bit, but still, as a fifth starter for your fantasy team, there's plenty of potential for profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
As a whole, Kimbrel's 2020 numbers were abysmal. A 5.28 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a walk rate of 17.4%. And yet, there were some encouraging signs. Not only did his strikeout rate bounce back to 40.6%, but he was actually an elite pitcher after his first four outings. How elite? He pitched to a 1.42 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and stuck out 53.1% of the batters he faced. It wasn't perfect, as Kimbrel still walked five batters per nine innings over that stretch. But he showed that he still has some has left in the tank. Although he never reclaimed the closer's job despite his strong finish, it's a good bet that the Cubs hand him the ninth-inning role to start, as they try to rebuild his trade value in the final year of his deal. That means Kimbrel should at least get save chances for the first several weeks of the season, and, as such, should be drafted as low-end second closer with just a modicum of upside.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Tyler Mahle broke out in 2020, posting a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 60 strikeouts across 47 2/3 innings. He added a slider to his pitch repertoire and upped his strike percentage to 29.6. The 26-year-old signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with the Reds avoiding arbitration. Mahle will be a fixture in the Reds rotation and prove his breakout in 2020 was no fluke. He could be a mid-round bargain and a pitcher fantasy managers should be targeting in their upcoming drafts.
Brad Camara - FantasyPros
Over his final 14 appearances (12 2/3 IP) Kimbrel registered a 27:7 K:BB ratio to go along with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. I'd like confirmation from the Cubs that he's entering the season as the closer before going "all in" on drafting him, but as long as he gets the ninth inning I'll be interested. Kimbrel has likely turned off many fantasy managers with some ugly blowup performances the past two years. This creates a buying opportunity. Kimbrel is a perfect candidate to draft for those who prefer to wait on saves.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros