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Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Jeff McNeil (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Jeff McNeil
2B,3B,LF,RF - NYM
Jeff McNeil
Expert
Recommendation
94%
Recommended by
48 of 51 experts
6%
Recommended by
3 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 34# 63
Best Rank# 12# 38
Worst Rank# 65# 101
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 51# 99
Best Rank# 40# 73
Worst Rank# 54# 105
   
Projections 
   
Runs8481
Home Runs2718
RBI9573
Stolen Bases36
Batting Average.288.296
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 70
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 38# 63
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 47
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 27# 74
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 84
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 33# 70
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 65# 95
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 100
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 32# 60
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 35# 54
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 50# 62
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 32# 61
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 37# 64
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 42
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 41# 60
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 27# 68
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 29# 54
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 49# 66
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 33# 54
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 41# 64
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 23# 95
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 57
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 33# 84
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 20# 64
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 12# 68
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 33# 59
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 31# 67
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 38# 62
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 37# 86
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 44# 63
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 44# 67
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 31# 68
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 29# 63
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 32# 53
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 18# 66
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 31# 74
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 25# 72
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 37# 63
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 42# 46
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 41# 72
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 42# 69
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 59# 71
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 28# 64
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 35# 63
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 35# 52
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 32# 64
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 37# 65
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 37# 101
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 41# 38
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 49# 39
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 54# 45
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Jeff McNeil
2B,3B,LF,RF - NYM
Jeff McNeil
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats221183
   
Runs3419
   
Hits5857
   
Singles3439
   
Doubles1314
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs94
   
RBI3323
   
Stolen Bases20
   
Caught Stealing02
   
Walks2020
   
Strikeouts3824
   
Batting Average.262.312
   
On Base Pct.329.383
   
Slugging Pct.462.454
   
On-base Plus Slugging.791.836
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Jeff McNeil
2B,3B,LF,RF - NYM
Jeff McNeil
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats554556
   
Runs8481
   
Hits158163
   
Singles95106
   
Doubles3235
   
Triples33
   
Home Runs2718
   
RBI9573
   
Stolen Bases36
   
Caught Stealing14
   
Walks5646
   
Strikeouts10182
   
Batting Average.288.296
   
On Base Pct.354.350
   
Slugging Pct.502.465
   
On-base Plus Slugging.856.815
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Jeff McNeil
2B,3B,LF,RF - NYM
Jeff McNeil
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
Jeff McNeil went 1-for-3 with one single, one strikeout, and two RBIs.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Sat, Aug 14th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-8 with a solo home run and three runs scored across both games of Saturday's doubleheader versus Baltimore.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 12th
Jeff McNeil went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and a strikeout.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Mon, Aug 2nd
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Thursday's 6-4 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 10th
Jeff McNeil is absent from Thursday's lineup against the Braves.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jul 29th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with a solo home run in Monday's 8-0 win over the Yankees.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 7th
Jeff McNeil went 2-for-5 with one run scored, one home run, one double, one strikeout, and two RBIs.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Wed, Jul 28th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 at the plate with a pair of runs in Sunday's 8-0 win over Oakland.
John Aubin
Mon, Sep 6th
Jeff McNeil went 2-for-3 with a single, a double, and a RBI in game two of the double header after not playing in game one.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Tue, Jul 27th
Notes 
 Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Much of McNeil's 2020 season looked similar to his year in 2019. He hit over .300, rarely struck out, and got on base plenty. But the power gains that we saw in 2019 vanished, as he hit just four home runs over 52 games. His barrel rate (2.5%) and hard-hit percentage (26.5%) were some of the worst in the league, and he didn't even offer the token stolen base that he had chipped in during previous seasons. This is a scenario where McNeil's value to any particular fantasy manager will depend on the weight he or she gives to the shortened 2020 season. Given that McNeil never hit the ball particularly hard anyway, though, a good bet is to assume he at least returns to the high teens in home runs, slightly below his 2019 pace. With his strong average and multi-position eligibility, that makes McNeil an asset in the middle rounds.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros