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Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Kenta Maeda (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Expert
Recommendation
55%
Recommended by
31 of 56 experts
45%
Recommended by
25 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 49# 53
Best Rank# 15# 19
Worst Rank# 98# 135
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 51# 47
Best Rank# 40# 45
Worst Rank# 54# 61
   
Projections 
   
Runs84
Home Runs2723
RBI95
Stolen Bases3
Batting Avg.288
Strikeouts101177
Wins12
Saves0
ERA3.83
WHIP1.13
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL60
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 53# 58
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 51# 57
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 36# 61
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 70
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 48# 57
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 93
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 35# 135
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 49# 101
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 46# 49
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 52# 57
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 30# 86
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 44# 57
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 45# 73
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 35# 65
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 47# 51
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 40# 57
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 30# 38
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 15# 60
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 44# 49
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 54# 79
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 61# 64
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 44# 50
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 41# 69
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 47# 79
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 28# 68
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 43# 54
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 53# 56
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 39# 69
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 49# 51
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 45# 54
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 53# 70
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 39# 32
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 50# 47
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 50# 45
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 51# 50
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 51# 44
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 53# 19
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 53# 49
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 54# 50
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 57# 35
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 57# 54
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 57# 55
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 58# 40
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 59# 52
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 59# 50
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 61# 44
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 64# 46
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 64# 49
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 65# 35
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 70# 41
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 71# 52
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 71# 49
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 74# 63
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 85# 40
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 95# 47
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 98# 89
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs34
   
Home Runs99
   
RBI33
   
Stolen Bases2
   
Batting Avg.262
   
Strikeouts3880
   
Wins6
   
Saves0
   
ERA2.70
   
WHIP0.75
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs84
   
Home Runs2723
   
RBI95
   
Stolen Bases3
   
Batting Avg.288
   
Strikeouts101177
   
Wins12
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.83
   
WHIP1.13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Saturday's win over the Orioles after rolling his ankle but is feeling fine, Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star reports.
John Aubin
Sun, Oct 3rd
Kenta Maeda is set to undergo season-ending surgery on Wednesday, according to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.
Ari Koslow
Fri, Aug 27th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-4 with a double and drove in a run on Thursday as the Blue Jays lost to the Yankees by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Oct 1st
Twins' SP Kenta Maeda is seeking second opinions on his forearm injury, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Jack Mannis
Tue, Aug 24th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, and scored a run on Wednesday as the Blue Jays lost to the Rays by a 7-1 score.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 23rd
Kenta Maeda was placed on the 10-day IL due to forearm tightness. It is unclear when he will be back.
Kamran Hoda
Mon, Aug 23rd
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Friday's 7-3 loss to Minnesota.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 18th
Kenta Maeda exited Saturday’s start against the Yankees with forearm tightness.
Chris Schommer
Sat, Aug 21st
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
The Twins are pushing Kenta Maeda's next start back to Saturday against the Yankees.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 18th
Notes 
 Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Fantasy managers rejoiced when Maeda was traded from the Dodgers to the Twins, but he surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. In the short season, Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate. In addition to simply being let loose with his innings, Maeda made a tangible change to his pitch mix, throwing far fewer fastball and more sliders and changeups (though his fastball was as effective as it had ever been last year, too). Maeda surely won't be able to repeat his numbers from 2020, as he allowed just a .208 BABIP, had an 80.2% LOB rate, and benefited from being able to feast on solely the NL and AL Central lineups. But even with some regression, he should still be a rock solid SP2, and should be drafted as such.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
In 2020 Maeda joined Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber as the only three starters to finish top-five in both xFIP and xERA. It was a dominant campaign as his new team, the Twins, finally unleashed him in a way the Dodgers never did. Maeda also finished top-five in swinging strike rate last summer. He admittedly faced the easiest "hub" against AL/NL Central foes, but a large number of his 2021 starts will come against similar opponents. There's still profit to be had with his current ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
 At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros