Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Matt Carpenter (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Expert
Recommendation
55%
Recommended by
31 of 56 experts
45%
Recommended by
25 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 48# 50
Best Rank# 16# 12
Worst Rank# 85# 100
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 53# 65
Best Rank# 43# 58
Worst Rank# 70# 72
   
Projections 
   
Runs7597
Home Runs2228
RBI7776
Stolen Bases43
Batting Average.300.256
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertDTD-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 49
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 30# 65
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 54# 78
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 49# 83
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 49# 50
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 53# 65
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 70
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 54# 71
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 16# 100
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 55# 59
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 39# 48
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 54# 76
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 70# 78
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 45# 47
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 44# 53
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 53# 66
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 46# 47
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 45# 48
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 31# 37
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 50
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 46# 49
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 51
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 61# 72
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 20# 62
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 42# 51
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 81
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 57
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 49# 64
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 48# 61
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 36# 55
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 54# 70
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 37
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 42# 36
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 44# 39
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 45# 40
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 46# 29
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 46# 39
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 46# 24
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 35
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 48# 36
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 49# 26
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 51# 36
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 51# 47
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 53# 37
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 61# 50
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 62# 33
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 62# 46
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 62# 38
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 66# 54
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 66# 12
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 69# 47
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 71# 64
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 71# 51
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 82# 68
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 85# 56
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 58
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats564
   
Runs111
   
Hits145
   
Singles67
   
Doubles42
   
Triples0
   
Home Runs36
   
RBI81
   
Stolen Bases4
   
Caught Stealing1
   
Walks102
   
Strikeouts158
   
Batting Average.257
   
On Base Pct.374
   
Slugging Pct.523
   
On-base Plus Slugging.897
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats482529
   
Runs7597
   
Hits145135
   
Singles9371
   
Doubles2935
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs2228
   
RBI7776
   
Stolen Bases43
   
Caught Stealing22
   
Walks4695
   
Strikeouts72140
   
Batting Average.300.256
   
On Base Pct.361.369
   
Slugging Pct.505.486
   
On-base Plus Slugging.866.855
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back in the lineup for the Blue Jays in their Sunday game against the Astros. He is batting second and slotted in at DH.
Dan Harris
Sun, Jun 16th
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with an RBI on Thursday against the Mets.
Dan Harris
Fri, Jun 14th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (hand) is absent from Saturday's lineup versus the Astros.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 15th
Carpenter is not in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 7th
 X-rays on the injured hand of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came back negative for any fractures on Friday according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
John Aubin
Sat, Jun 15th
Carpenter was pulled in the top of the eighth inning of Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Reds; he was replaced at third base by Jedd Gyorko.
James Bisson
Thu, Jun 6th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Friday's game in the second inning after getting beaned on the hand by a Gerrit Cole fastball.
Andrew Gould
Fri, Jun 14th
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-1 with a pinch-hit, solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-3 win over the Phillies on Thursday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 30th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with an RBI and two runs scored in a win over the Orioles on Wednesday.
John Aubin
Thu, Jun 13th
Matt Carpenter went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in the Cardinals' 5-2 loss to the Braves on Friday.
Elliott Baas
Sat, May 25th
Notes 
 Nobody is doubting Guerrero's skills. Especially not Steamer, as the typically pessimistic projection system has the 19-year-old batting .306/.368/.511 with 22 homers in 550 plate appearances. Toronto's teenage prodigy has nothing left to prove in the minors after collectively batting .381/.437/.636 in Double-A and Triple-A. The problem is opportunity, with the Blue Jays almost certain to hold baseball's top prospect back for service-time manipulation. Since he was never going to make the Opening Day roster, supporters shouldn't get cold feet because of an oblique injury that guarantees a delay to his anticipated arrival. With Ronald Acuna's sensational debut fresh in everyone's mind, there's still little chance of snagging Vlad Jr. at a discount. Don't bite so soon in re-drafts, but it'll get tougher to resist if he lasts to the late fifth or sixth round.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 The always conservative Steamer projection model sees Vlad Jr. as a similar player to Nolan Arenado from the get-go with a .300+ BA, 30 homers and both 100 RBIs and runs over a full season's at bats. This issue, however, will be whether he gets those at-bats. You can gamble on him as early as the 4th round, but it may not be early enough to beat others to the punch
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Carpenter blew away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Guerrero profiles as a future superstar. He was unstoppable across four minor league levels last season, hitting .381 with 20 home runs in just 95 games. The projection systems universally expect him to rake from day one in the Major Leagues, envisioning that he is capable of hitting close to .300 with 20-25 home runs even while missing the first few weeks of the season due to service time considerations. He won't be good for more than a handful of stolen bases, but that hardly matters for a player who could someday soon lead the league in both batting average and home runs.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros