Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Matt Carpenter (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
Expert
Recommendation
54%
Recommended by
32 of 59 experts
46%
Recommended by
27 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 48# 49
Best Rank# 16# 12
Worst Rank# 85# 100
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 53# 65
Best Rank# 43# 58
Worst Rank# 70# 72
   
Projections 
   
Runs7597
Home Runs2228
RBI7776
Stolen Bases43
Batting Average.300.256
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 49
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 30# 65
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 54# 78
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 49# 83
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 49# 50
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 53# 65
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 70
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 54# 71
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 16# 100
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 55# 59
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 39# 48
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 54# 76
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 70# 78
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 45# 47
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 44# 53
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 53# 66
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 45# 48
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 31# 37
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 50
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 46# 49
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 51
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 61# 72
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 20# 62
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 42# 51
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 81
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 57
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 49# 64
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 48# 61
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 36# 55
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 23# 45
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 51# 58
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 54# 70
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 37
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 42# 36
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 44# 39
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 45# 40
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 46# 29
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 46# 39
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 46# 24
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 35
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 48# 36
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 49# 26
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 51# 36
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 51# 38
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 51# 42
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 51# 47
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 53# 37
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 61# 50
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 62# 33
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 62# 46
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 62# 38
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 66# 54
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 66# 12
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 69# 47
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 71# 64
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 71# 51
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 82# 68
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 85# 56
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 58
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats564
   
Runs111
   
Hits145
   
Singles67
   
Doubles42
   
Triples0
   
Home Runs36
   
RBI81
   
Stolen Bases4
   
Caught Stealing1
   
Walks102
   
Strikeouts158
   
Batting Average.257
   
On Base Pct.374
   
Slugging Pct.523
   
On-base Plus Slugging.897
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats482529
   
Runs7597
   
Hits145135
   
Singles9371
   
Doubles2935
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs2228
   
RBI7776
   
Stolen Bases43
   
Caught Stealing22
   
Walks4695
   
Strikeouts72140
   
Batting Average.300.256
   
On Base Pct.361.369
   
Slugging Pct.505.486
   
On-base Plus Slugging.866.855
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Carpenter
1B,2B,3B - STL
Matt Carpenter
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a walk on Tuesday as the Blue Jays beat the Orioles by an 8-5 score.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 18th
Matt Carpenter did not start Tuesday's game against the Nationals, and went 0-for-1 as a pinch hitter.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 18th
 Vladimir Guerrero went 1-for-3 and drove in three RBI in an 8-0 triumph over the Red Sox on Wednesday.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 12th
Matt Carpenter went 2-for-3 with two walks, two singles, an RBI, and a run scored in Thursday's win over the Giants.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 5th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with a triple and a walk while driving in a run as the Blue Jays lost to the Rays on Thursday by a 6-4 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 6th
Matt Carpenter went 3-for-4 with a home run, three runs scored, two RBI, and a walk in Sunday's win over the Rockies.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Aug 26th
 Vlad Guerrero Jr. will get the day off Monday against the Braves.
Brad Camara
Mon, Sep 2nd
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-3 with a walk as the Cardinals defeated the Royals 2-0.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Aug 13th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was ejected for the first time in his big league career on Friday for grumbling and pointing at home plate umpire Mike Estabrook.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 31st
Matt Carpenter (foot) was activated off the 10-day injured list Sunday.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Aug 4th
Notes 
 Nobody is doubting Guerrero's skills. Especially not Steamer, as the typically pessimistic projection system has the 19-year-old batting .306/.368/.511 with 22 homers in 550 plate appearances. Toronto's teenage prodigy has nothing left to prove in the minors after collectively batting .381/.437/.636 in Double-A and Triple-A. The problem is opportunity, with the Blue Jays almost certain to hold baseball's top prospect back for service-time manipulation. Since he was never going to make the Opening Day roster, supporters shouldn't get cold feet because of an oblique injury that guarantees a delay to his anticipated arrival. With Ronald Acuna's sensational debut fresh in everyone's mind, there's still little chance of snagging Vlad Jr. at a discount. Don't bite so soon in re-drafts, but it'll get tougher to resist if he lasts to the late fifth or sixth round.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Over the last five years, Carpenter has a remarkable 468 walks, which obviously has contributed to his 483 runs. In that time, his power has steadily improved, all the way to 36 homers last year, and while that total may not be repeatable, 30 homers with 100 runs makes him well worth a sixth round pick in 2019 fantasy leagues
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 The always conservative Steamer projection model sees Vlad Jr. as a similar player to Nolan Arenado from the get-go with a .300+ BA, 30 homers and both 100 RBIs and runs over a full season's at bats. This issue, however, will be whether he gets those at-bats. You can gamble on him as early as the 4th round, but it may not be early enough to beat others to the punch
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Carpenter blew away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he's ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it's not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He's a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5x5 roto/categories leagues, where he could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Guerrero profiles as a future superstar. He was unstoppable across four minor league levels last season, hitting .381 with 20 home runs in just 95 games. The projection systems universally expect him to rake from day one in the Major Leagues, envisioning that he is capable of hitting close to .300 with 20-25 home runs even while missing the first few weeks of the season due to service time considerations. He won't be good for more than a handful of stolen bases, but that hardly matters for a player who could someday soon lead the league in both batting average and home runs.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Despite entering the season with health woes and batting .155 in April, Carpenter then went scorched earth to hit .257/.374/.523 with a career-high 36 homers. It's dicey to bet on a 33-year-old coming off a career year, but he simply punishes baseball too severely to discredit. He led qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.0%) with the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (46.9%) and fourth-lowest popup rate (2.1%). Given his elite blend of hitting the ball hard, high, and far, Statcast's .535 XSLG and .386 xwOBA even offer room for growth. Expect more elite power in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros