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Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Matt Chapman (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
Expert
Recommendation
85%
Recommended by
50 of 59 experts
15%
Recommended by
9 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 48# 64
Best Rank# 16# 29
Worst Rank# 85# 117
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 53# 103
Best Rank# 43# 86
Worst Rank# 70# 111
   
Projections 
   
Runs7590
Home Runs2227
RBI7782
Stolen Bases43
Batting Average.300.257
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 71# 82
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 65
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 51# 57
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 49# 70
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 51# 73
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 30# 103
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 54# 74
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 49# 62
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 49# 69
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 48# 73
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 66# 86
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 53# 63
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 77
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 49# 55
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 77
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 54# 68
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 16# 68
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 55# 67
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 39# 68
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 45# 64
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 54# 68
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 53# 65
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 70# 84
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 45# 65
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 62# 64
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 44# 65
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 42# 73
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 53# 60
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 45# 50
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 31# 44
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 46# 56
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 71
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 46# 61
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 55
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 61# 73
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 20# 87
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 42# 59
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 80
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 65
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 49# 63
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 48# 66
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 51# 69
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 36# 69
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 23# 77
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 51# 64
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 51# 117
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 46# 55
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 54# 73
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 46# 48
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 62# 65
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 44# 29
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 61# 53
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 62# 59
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 66# 64
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 69# 58
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 71# 67
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 82# 39
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 85# 69
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 41
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats547
   
Runs100
   
Hits152
   
Singles80
   
Doubles42
   
Triples6
   
Home Runs24
   
RBI68
   
Stolen Bases1
   
Caught Stealing2
   
Walks58
   
Strikeouts146
   
Batting Average.278
   
On Base Pct.356
   
Slugging Pct.508
   
On-base Plus Slugging.864
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats482558
   
Runs7590
   
Hits145144
   
Singles9375
   
Doubles2936
   
Triples25
   
Home Runs2227
   
RBI7782
   
Stolen Bases43
   
Caught Stealing23
   
Walks4659
   
Strikeouts72157
   
Batting Average.300.257
   
On Base Pct.361.328
   
Slugging Pct.505.487
   
On-base Plus Slugging.866.816
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Matt Chapman
3B - OAK
Matt Chapman
News 
 Blue Jays CEO Mark Shapiro says Vladimir Guerrero Jr. "couldn't be pushing himself harder" in off-season workouts thus far.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Nov 7th
Matt Chapman went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run and a walk in Thursday's 3-1 win over the Mariners.
Brad Camara
Fri, Sep 27th
 Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins says the team is "committed" to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. playing third base.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Oct 1st
Matt Chapman went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 3-2 win over the Angels.
Brad Camara
Thu, Sep 26th
 Vladimir Guerrero was a late scratch from Saturday's lineup against the Rays with right knee soreness, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 28th
Matt Chapman went 0-for-3 with two walks and two runs scored in Friday's 8-0 win over the Rangers.
Brad Camara
Sat, Sep 21st
 Vladimir Guerrero went 1-for-4 on Friday as the Blue Jays lost to the Rays by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 28th
Matt Chapman went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Sunday's 6-1 win over the Rangers.
Brad Camara
Mon, Sep 16th
 Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in a 4-3 victory against the Yankees on Friday.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 21st
Matt Chapman went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run in Saturday's 8-6 win over the Rangers.
Brad Camara
Sun, Sep 15th
Notes 
 Nobody is doubting Guerrero's skills. Especially not Steamer, as the typically pessimistic projection system has the 19-year-old batting .306/.368/.511 with 22 homers in 550 plate appearances. Toronto's teenage prodigy has nothing left to prove in the minors after collectively batting .381/.437/.636 in Double-A and Triple-A. The problem is opportunity, with the Blue Jays almost certain to hold baseball's top prospect back for service-time manipulation. Since he was never going to make the Opening Day roster, supporters shouldn't get cold feet because of an oblique injury that guarantees a delay to his anticipated arrival. With Ronald Acuna's sensational debut fresh in everyone's mind, there's still little chance of snagging Vlad Jr. at a discount. Don't bite so soon in re-drafts, but it'll get tougher to resist if he lasts to the late fifth or sixth round.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
While it may be appealing to draft incredible real-life players, there is a major difference between fringe AL MVP candidate and top 80 fantasy baseball player. Chapman's defensive prowess doesn't transfer over, unfortunately, so rather, we are looking at a mediocre power hitter with some batting average concerns.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 The always conservative Steamer projection model sees Vlad Jr. as a similar player to Nolan Arenado from the get-go with a .300+ BA, 30 homers and both 100 RBIs and runs over a full season's at bats. This issue, however, will be whether he gets those at-bats. You can gamble on him as early as the 4th round, but it may not be early enough to beat others to the punch
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Chapman didn't hit quite as many homers in 2018 as fantasy owners may have hoped, after displaying 30-HR power in the minors. But he made up for it with much lower strikeout rate than he had in the minors, riding that and a .338 BABIP to a .278 batting average and even 100 runs scored. The high BABIP all but ensures that Chapman's batting average will fall in 2019, but if he's able to keep the strikeouts in check he could be more of a .260 hitter than a .240 one. He also still has clear 30 HR potential if he can just elevate the ball more -- his 40.3 percent ground ball rate last year was much higher than he ever had in the minors.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Guerrero profiles as a future superstar. He was unstoppable across four minor league levels last season, hitting .381 with 20 home runs in just 95 games. The projection systems universally expect him to rake from day one in the Major Leagues, envisioning that he is capable of hitting close to .300 with 20-25 home runs even while missing the first few weeks of the season due to service time considerations. He won't be good for more than a handful of stolen bases, but that hardly matters for a player who could someday soon lead the league in both batting average and home runs.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Although he underwent offseason surgery, Chapman is expected to be ready by Oakland's season opener in Tokyo on March 20. Fantasy investors don't reap the rewards of his Gold Glove at third, and typical five-by-five gamers didn't fully benefit from his 42 doubles. Yet those strengths led to a steadfast starting role and 100 runs scored. Having towered as many as 36 homers in a minor league season, he could expand upon last season's 23. He also make quiet contact gains to support his .278 batting average, so even if Chapman doesn't take another step further, he also won't regress as much as most projections expect.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
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