Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Nicholas Castellanos (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
Expert
Recommendation
57%
Recommended by
32 of 56 experts
43%
Recommended by
24 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 48# 53
Best Rank# 16# 35
Worst Rank# 85# 88
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 53# 90
Best Rank# 43# 53
Worst Rank# 70# 100
   
Projections 
   
Runs7582
Home Runs2225
RBI7790
Stolen Bases43
Batting Average.300.283
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 48# 66
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 44# 51
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 30# 47
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 54# 55
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 49# 69
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 48# 69
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 53# 86
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 41# 64
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 49# 80
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 64
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 16# 69
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 39# 55
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 45# 54
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 45# 51
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 62# 78
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 44# 47
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 42# 56
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 46# 57
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 45# 53
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 31# 59
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 46# 48
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 36# 49
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 46# 58
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 47
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 20# 63
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 42# 88
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 79
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 56
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 49# 67
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 48# 53
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 36# 62
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 46# 65
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 46# 45
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 49# 47
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 49# 48
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 51# 50
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 51# 48
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 53# 46
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 53# 39
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 54# 48
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 54# 41
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 54# 35
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 55# 51
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 61# 44
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 61# 51
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 62# 56
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 62# 58
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 66# 50
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 66# 65
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 69# 48
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 70# 39
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 71# 49
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 71# 65
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 82# 52
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 85# 60
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 51
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats620
   
Runs88
   
Hits185
   
Singles111
   
Doubles46
   
Triples5
   
Home Runs23
   
RBI89
   
Stolen Bases2
   
Caught Stealing1
   
Walks49
   
Strikeouts151
   
Batting Average.298
   
On Base Pct.354
   
Slugging Pct.500
   
On-base Plus Slugging.854
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats482592
   
Runs7582
   
Hits145168
   
Singles9397
   
Doubles2939
   
Triples26
   
Home Runs2225
   
RBI7790
   
Stolen Bases43
   
Caught Stealing22
   
Walks4647
   
Strikeouts72141
   
Batting Average.300.283
   
On Base Pct.361.336
   
Slugging Pct.505.498
   
On-base Plus Slugging.866.834
   
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Nicholas Castellanos
RF - DET
Nicholas Castellanos
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back in the lineup for the Blue Jays in their Sunday game against the Astros. He is batting second and slotted in at DH.
Dan Harris
Sun, Jun 16th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-2 with a double, a steal, two walks, two runs, and an RBI in a 5-4 win over the Pirates on Tuesday.
Matthew Terelle
Wed, Jun 19th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (hand) is absent from Saturday's lineup versus the Astros.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 15th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-4 in an 8-0 loss to the Indians on Sunday.
Matthew Terelle
Mon, Jun 17th
 X-rays on the injured hand of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came back negative for any fractures on Friday according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
John Aubin
Sat, Jun 15th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in a 3-2 loss to the Royals on Tuesday.
Matthew Terelle
Wed, Jun 12th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Friday's game in the second inning after getting beaned on the hand by a Gerrit Cole fastball.
Andrew Gould
Fri, Jun 14th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-4 with a double in a 4-0 loss to the Rays on Wednesday.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Jun 6th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with an RBI and two runs scored in a win over the Orioles on Wednesday.
John Aubin
Thu, Jun 13th
Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos went 1-for-5 with a two-run homer in an 8-2 win over the Braves on Friday.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, Jun 1st
Notes 
 Nobody is doubting Guerrero's skills. Especially not Steamer, as the typically pessimistic projection system has the 19-year-old batting .306/.368/.511 with 22 homers in 550 plate appearances. Toronto's teenage prodigy has nothing left to prove in the minors after collectively batting .381/.437/.636 in Double-A and Triple-A. The problem is opportunity, with the Blue Jays almost certain to hold baseball's top prospect back for service-time manipulation. Since he was never going to make the Opening Day roster, supporters shouldn't get cold feet because of an oblique injury that guarantees a delay to his anticipated arrival. With Ronald Acuna's sensational debut fresh in everyone's mind, there's still little chance of snagging Vlad Jr. at a discount. Don't bite so soon in re-drafts, but it'll get tougher to resist if he lasts to the late fifth or sixth round.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
There's no doubt that Castellanos is a solid fantasy option, but last season's .298 batting average looks due for quite a bit of regression, he doesn't run, and his run production numbers could also take a hit as the Tigers enter into a full-on rebuild. There are better outfielders available at his late-seventh round ADP.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 The always conservative Steamer projection model sees Vlad Jr. as a similar player to Nolan Arenado from the get-go with a .300+ BA, 30 homers and both 100 RBIs and runs over a full season's at bats. This issue, however, will be whether he gets those at-bats. You can gamble on him as early as the 4th round, but it may not be early enough to beat others to the punch
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
After showing solid contact in 2016 and power in 2017, Castellanos put it all together to hit .298/.354/.500 with 23 homers. Even playing every day in a desolate Detroit lineup led him to 88 runs and 89 RBI, so he's a high-floor option entering his age-27 season. The ceiling, however, is also limited. While he continues to make more hard contact, he'll struggle to maintain such a high average with the third-highest swinging-strike rate (15.8%) of all qualified hitters. Pay for a steady hand rather than a burgeoning star with more room for growth.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Guerrero profiles as a future superstar. He was unstoppable across four minor league levels last season, hitting .381 with 20 home runs in just 95 games. The projection systems universally expect him to rake from day one in the Major Leagues, envisioning that he is capable of hitting close to .300 with 20-25 home runs even while missing the first few weeks of the season due to service time considerations. He won't be good for more than a handful of stolen bases, but that hardly matters for a player who could someday soon lead the league in both batting average and home runs.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Castellanos was a disappointment for so long that it may still be hanging over his stock. The fact of the matter, however, is that he has been great the past two season, hitting .285 with 49 homers and 190 RBIs. He only qualifies as an outfielder now, but should be regarded every bit as high as someone like Justin Upton or Mitch Haniger.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros