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Who Should I Draft?

Walker Buehler or Aaron Nola (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Expert
Recommendation
52%
Recommended by
26 of 50 experts
48%
Recommended by
24 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 7# 8
Best Rank# 4# 3
Worst Rank# 15# 13
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 21# 22
Best Rank# 19# 22
Worst Rank# 26# 25
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts197222
Wins1213
Saves00
ERA3.303.56
WHIP1.071.17
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 4# 8
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 7# 9
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 5# 9
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 9
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 6# 7
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 8# 9
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 7# 10
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 5# 7
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 5# 9
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 6# 8
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 5# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 5# 8
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 5# 13
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 7# 8
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 6# 7
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 7# 8
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 5# 9
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 8
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 5# 12
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 4# 12
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 7
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 6# 9
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 4# 9
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 7# 8
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 6# 8
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 9# 12
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 6# 3
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 7# 6
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 7# 4
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 7# 4
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 7# 5
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 8# 7
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 8# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 8# 6
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 8# 6
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 9# 5
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 9# 6
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 9# 7
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 7
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 6
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 9# 8
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 9# 7
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 10# 7
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 11# 7
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 11# 7
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 11# 10
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 11# 7
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 12# 7
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 13# 7
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 15# 7
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played812
   
Games Started812
   
Innings Pitched37.171.2
   
Wins15
   
Losses05
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed2454
   
Earned Runs1426
   
Home Runs Allowed79
   
Strikeouts4296
   
Walks1123
   
ERA3.443.28
   
WHIP0.951.08
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2931
   
Games Started3031
   
Innings Pitched168.9190.0
   
Wins1213
   
Losses69
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed137161
   
Earned Runs6275
   
Home Runs Allowed2124
   
Strikeouts197222
   
Walks4460
   
ERA3.303.56
   
WHIP1.071.17
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
News 
 RHP Walker Buehler was handed a no-decision on Friday when he allowed two runs on seven hits with four strikeouts and one walk over six innings as the Dodgers took down the Padres 11-6 in extra-innings.
Jon Mathisen
Sat, Apr 17th
Phillies ace Aaron Nola tossed a complete game shutout in Sunday's win over the St. Louis Cardinals, striking out ten while allowing to hits and no walks.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Mon, Apr 19th
 RHP Walker Buehler picked up his first win of the year on Friday, allowing six hits and no runs with four strikeouts over six innings in the Dodgers 1-0 win over the Nationals.
Jon Mathisen
Fri, Apr 9th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over five innings in Tuesday's loss to the New York Mets.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Apr 14th
 Walker Buehler took a no-decision on Saturday when he allowed two runs on four hits with four strikeouts over six innings in the Dodgers 6-5 win over the Rockies.
Jon Mathisen
Sun, Apr 4th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on six hits and two walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets on Wednesday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Apr 8th
 Walker Buehler avoided arbitration by signing a 2-year, $8 million deal with the Dodgers. The deal includes a $2 million signing bonus, and includes several $500K contract escalators based on games started and Cy Young Award finishes.
Carmen Maiorano - Carm's Clubhouse
Thu, Feb 11th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on six hits and no walks while striking out six over 6 2/3 innings in Thursday's no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Opening Day.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Apr 2nd
  The Phillies announced RHP Aaron Nola as their Opening Day starter.
Brad Camara
Mon, Mar 22nd
Notes 
 Because the Dodgers wanted to closely watch Buehler's routine and workload, he got a late start to the shortened season, essentially using his first few starts as the end of his spring training. He also dealt with blisters late in the year. All that to say, Buehler's 36 2/3 regular-season innings are, for the most part, largely meaningless. He gave up a few more home runs and walked a few more batters than usual, and he won just a single game. But none of it matters. Value Buehler as you did after his 2019 season - as one of the true stud pitchers in the game. Once the big three of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Shane Bieber are off the board, Buehler should come under immediate consideration, as the type of starting pitcher who can be your fantasy ace.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 There's little doubt that Buehler is one of the most talented starting pitchers in baseball, but we do have questions about his volume entering 2021. Did you know that during the regular season, Buehler had just one appearance where he completed six full innings? This wasn't just a Dodgers thing, either. Julio Urias had five such appearances while Tony Gonsolin had four and Dustin May had three. Of course, the team was saving Buehler for the playoffs more so than their other youngsters, and it worked out. The Dodgers have always handled Buehler with kid gloves, and while he'll be one of the best starters on a per-inning basis in 2021, I'm worried enough about the volume that I'm ranking him closer to the back half of my top-10 starters.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros