Who Should I Draft?

Walker Buehler or James Paxton (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Expert
Recommendation
73%
Recommended by
41 of 56 experts
27%
Recommended by
15 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 12# 14
Best Rank# 4# 11
Worst Rank# 39# 31
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 40# 49
Best Rank# 35# 47
Worst Rank# 44# 55
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts180196
Wins1213
Saves00
ERA3.183.46
WHIP1.141.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 9# 19
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 22
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 28
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 12# 15
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 12# 15
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 14# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 12# 15
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 17# 22
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 10# 18
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 12# 15
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 6# 15
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 12# 16
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 4# 24
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 14# 16
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 15
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 10# 27
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 12# 15
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 10# 14
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 12# 14
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 15# 16
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 13# 16
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 11# 15
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 12# 17
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 18# 21
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 14# 31
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 12# 13
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 13# 14
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 17# 19
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 12# 17
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 12# 13
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 9# 19
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 12# 17
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 12# 18
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 13# 28
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 18# 20
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 12# 16
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 12# 16
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 11# 19
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 12# 13
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 13
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 12# 11
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 13# 12
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 13# 12
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 13# 12
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 13# 12
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 14# 12
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 14# 13
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 15# 14
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 15# 13
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 16# 14
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 16# 15
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 18# 16
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 19# 18
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 21# 16
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 39# 12
   
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2428
   
Games Started2328
   
Innings Pitched137.2160.1
   
Wins811
   
Losses56
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves10
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed95134
   
Earned Runs4067
   
Home Runs Allowed1223
   
Strikeouts151208
   
Walks3742
   
ERA2.623.76
   
WHIP0.961.10
   
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2828
   
Games Started2828
   
Innings Pitched162.2166.2
   
Wins1213
   
Losses77
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed133144
   
Earned Runs5764
   
Home Runs Allowed1721
   
Strikeouts180196
   
Walks5245
   
ERA3.183.46
   
WHIP1.141.14
   
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
News 
 Walker Buehler received a no-decision on Saturday versus the Cubs, hurling seven scoreless frames while striking out six and allowing just two hits.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 16th
James Paxton gave up two runs on eight hits with one walk and struck out seven batters over six innings to pick up a win against the White Sox on Sunday.
John Aubin
Sun, Jun 16th
 Walker Buehler improved to 7-1 on Sunday versus the Giants, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out nine.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
James Paxton was handed the loss after surrendering six runs on seven hits over 2 2/3 innings during Game 2 of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Mets. He struck out one and walked two.
John Aubin
Wed, Jun 12th
 Walker Buehler picked up the win on Monday versus Arizona, striking out 11 over eight innings of one-run ball.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 4th
James Paxton pitched 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Wednesday and allowed four runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks. He struck out four and did not factor in the decision.
John Aubin
Thu, Jun 6th
 Walker Buehler received a no-decision on Wednesday versus the Mets, giving up five runs on seven hits over five innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, May 30th
James Paxton gave up no runs and no hits while walking two and striking out seven over four innings on Wednesday as the Yankees beat the Padres.
John Aubin
Wed, May 29th
 Walker Buehler improved to 5-1 on Friday versus the Pirates, throwing six innings of one-run ball while striking out six.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, May 25th
James Paxton (knee) has been cleared to come off the injured list to start Wednesday versus the Padres.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, May 27th
Notes 
 After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 An easy Rookie of the Year pick any other year, Buehler boasted a 2.62 ERA, 152 strikeouts, and a 50.0% ground-ball rate in 137.1 spectacular frames for the Dodgers. That's not including a dominant World Series gem. The hype is thus growing exponentially, so much so that he's going around the same area as Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard. Such a steep price is a tough sell because the Dodgers -- who haven't let a single starter work 180 innings in the last three years -- will curate his workload with extreme caution. That's before considering arm discomfort that has made his Opening Day availability "a little far-fetched." Drafters are probably paying too much for 160 superb frames in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Buehler lived up to the hype and more in his first extended stint in the Big Leagues, posting a 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate across 137 1/3 innings. His peripherals suggest his ERA is due to rise into the low-3.00s, but make no mistake, he is the real deal. The bigger question is how many innings the Dodgers will let him throw this season. Last season's total represented a big jump, and the Dodgers are notorious for rotating six or seven starters in and out of their rotation, so it is best to expect Buehler to throw around 150 innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros