Who Should I Draft?

Walker Buehler or James Paxton (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Expert
Recommendation
75%
Recommended by
44 of 59 experts
25%
Recommended by
15 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 12# 14
Best Rank# 4# 11
Worst Rank# 39# 31
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 40# 49
Best Rank# 35# 47
Worst Rank# 44# 55
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts180196
Wins1213
Saves00
ERA3.183.46
WHIP1.141.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 9# 19
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 22
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 28
   
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FullTime Fantasy
# 12# 15
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 12# 15
   
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The Athletic
# 14# 16
   
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USA Today
# 12# 15
   
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RotoChamp
# 17# 22
   
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Razzball
# 10# 18
   
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The Fake Baseball
# 12# 15
   
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Brewer Rat
# 6# 15
   
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Fantasy Football Empire
# 12# 16
   
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Beast Dome
# 4# 24
   
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CBS Sports
# 14# 16
   
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Yahoo! Sports
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The Athletic
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Mr. Cheatsheet
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The Fantasy Sports Brain
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FantasyPros
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Razzball
# 15# 16
   
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BretskyBall
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The Athletic
# 11# 15
   
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Expand The Boxscore
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Fake Teams
# 18# 21
   
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Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
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The Fake Baseball
# 12# 13
   
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FanGraphs
# 17# 19
   
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# 12# 17
   
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# 12# 13
   
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FantasyPros
# 9# 19
   
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# 12# 17
   
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# 12# 15
   
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# 18# 20
   
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Freeze Stats
# 12# 16
   
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Fantasy Six Pack
# 14# 18
   
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Hail to Fantasy Football
# 13# 15
   
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# 12# 16
   
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BRoto Fantasy
# 12# 16
   
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BRoto Fantasy
# 13# 21
   
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Fake Teams
# 11# 19
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 12# 13
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 13
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 12# 11
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 13# 12
   
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The Athletic
# 13# 12
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 13# 12
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 13# 12
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 14# 12
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 14# 13
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 15# 14
   
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The Fantasy Headliners
# 15# 13
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 16# 14
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 16# 15
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 18# 16
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 19# 18
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 21# 16
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 39# 12
   
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2428
   
Games Started2328
   
Innings Pitched137.2160.1
   
Wins811
   
Losses56
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves10
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed95134
   
Earned Runs4067
   
Home Runs Allowed1223
   
Strikeouts151208
   
Walks3742
   
ERA2.623.76
   
WHIP0.961.10
   
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2828
   
Games Started2828
   
Innings Pitched162.2166.2
   
Wins1213
   
Losses77
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed133144
   
Earned Runs5764
   
Home Runs Allowed1721
   
Strikeouts180196
   
Walks5245
   
ERA3.183.46
   
WHIP1.141.14
   
  Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
News 
 Walker Buehler improved to 13-3 on Tuesday versus the Orioles, striking out 11 while spinning seven scoreless innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Sep 11th
James Paxton allowed one run on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts across five innings while earning a win against the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 15th
 Walker Buehler earned the win despite a shaky outing on Monday versus Colorado, giving up six runs on eight hits over five innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Sep 3rd
James Paxton gave up four hits and three walks while striking out seven through 6 2/3 scoreless innings to take the win over the Red Sox on Monday.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 10th
 Walker Buehler earned the win on Tuesday in San Diego, striking out 11 while tossing six scoreless frames.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 28th
James Paxton pitched seven shutout innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, while striking out 12 as the Yankees defeated the Rangers 10-1.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Sep 3rd
 Walker Buehler received a no-decision on Wednesday versus the Blue Jays, tossing seven scoreless innings while striking out eight.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Aug 22nd
James Paxton allowed two earned runs in five innings and improved to 11-6 on the year as the Yankees defeated the Mariners 7-3.
Brandon Plutner
Wed, Aug 28th
 Walker Buehler took the loss on Thursday in Miami, allowing five runs on five hits over four innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Aug 16th
James Paxton earned the win Friday, allowing two runs on five hits and striking out 11 in a 10-2 win over the Dodgers.
John Aubin
Sat, Aug 24th
Notes 
 After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 An easy Rookie of the Year pick any other year, Buehler boasted a 2.62 ERA, 152 strikeouts, and a 50.0% ground-ball rate in 137.1 spectacular frames for the Dodgers. That's not including a dominant World Series gem. The hype is thus growing exponentially, so much so that he's going around the same area as Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard. Such a steep price is a tough sell because the Dodgers -- who haven't let a single starter work 180 innings in the last three years -- will curate his workload with extreme caution. That's before considering arm discomfort that has made his Opening Day availability "a little far-fetched." Drafters are probably paying too much for 160 superb frames in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Buehler lived up to the hype and more in his first extended stint in the Big Leagues, posting a 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate across 137 1/3 innings. His peripherals suggest his ERA is due to rise into the low-3.00s, but make no mistake, he is the real deal. The bigger question is how many innings the Dodgers will let him throw this season. Last season's total represented a big jump, and the Dodgers are notorious for rotating six or seven starters in and out of their rotation, so it is best to expect Buehler to throw around 150 innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros