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Who Should I Draft?

Will Smith or Carson Kelly (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Will Smith
C - LAD
Will Smith
Carson Kelly
C - ARI
Carson Kelly
Expert
Recommendation
96%
Recommended by
49 of 51 experts
4%
Recommended by
2 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 94# 182
Best Rank# 67# 127
Worst Rank# 276# 300
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 100# 282
Best Rank# 86# 252
Worst Rank# 121# 345
   
Projections 
   
Runs5642
Home Runs2115
RBI6549
Stolen Bases20
Batting Average.250.240
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL10
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 75# 179
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 109# 158
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 73# 139
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 70# 195
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 138# 156
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 103
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 107
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 96
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 151# 244
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 90# 185
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 98# 197
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 90# 210
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 76# 176
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 103# 195
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 73
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 84# 182
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 113# 207
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 80# 177
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 83# 167
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 83# 180
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 93# 175
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 104# 172
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 67
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 94# 220
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 92# 174
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 245# 249
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 108# 162
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 74# 127
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 107# 144
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 87
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 80
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 78
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 85
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 88# 176
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 67# 165
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 92# 169
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 91# 186
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 69
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 83# 173
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 192# 300
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 89# 177
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 83# 177
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 72
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 89
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 92# 174
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 86# 158
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 75# 225
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 88# 169
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 105
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 203# 183
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 276# 155
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Will Smith
C - LAD
Will Smith
Carson Kelly
C - ARI
Carson Kelly
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats114122
   
Runs2311
   
Hits3327
   
Singles1617
   
Doubles95
   
Triples00
   
Home Runs85
   
RBI2519
   
Stolen Bases00
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks206
   
Strikeouts2229
   
Batting Average.290.221
   
On Base Pct.402.264
   
Slugging Pct.579.385
   
On-base Plus Slugging.980.649
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Will Smith
C - LAD
Will Smith
Carson Kelly
C - ARI
Carson Kelly
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats343347
   
Runs5642
   
Hits8583
   
Singles4550
   
Doubles1917
   
Triples10
   
Home Runs2115
   
RBI6549
   
Stolen Bases20
   
Caught Stealing10
   
Walks4438
   
Strikeouts9284
   
Batting Average.250.240
   
On Base Pct.337.316
   
Slugging Pct.484.422
   
On-base Plus Slugging.821.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Will Smith
C - LAD
Will Smith
Carson Kelly
C - ARI
Carson Kelly
News 
 Catcher Will Smith went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk as the Dodgers took down the Rockies 3-2 on Sunday.
Jon Mathisen
Sun, Jul 25th
D'Backs catcher Carson Kelly was diagnosed with a fractured wrist on Saturday night.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 20th
 Catcher Will Smith went 1-for-4 with a two-run homer and two strikeouts as the Dodgers lost to the Giants 5-3 on Thursday.
Jon Mathisen
Fri, Jul 23rd
Catcher Carson Kelly went 3-for-4 with a double, a home run, and two RBI as the Diamondbacks lost to the Giants by a score of 5-2 on Monday.
Jon Mathisen
Tue, Jun 15th
 Catcher Will Smith went 1-for-1 with a pinch-hit three-run homer in the Dodgers' 8-6 win over the Giants on Tuesday.
Jon Mathisen
Wed, Jul 21st
Catcher Carson Kelly went 0-for-3 with a walk as the Diamondbacks were shut out by the A's by a score of 4-0 on Wednesday.
Jon Mathisen
Thu, Jun 10th
 Catcher Will Smith went 3-for-4 with a home run, three RBI, a stolen base, a walk, and a strikeout in the Dodgers' 6-5 extra-innings loss to the Rockies on Sunday.
Jon Mathisen
Mon, Jul 19th
Catcher Carson Kelly went 1-for-5 with a home run, two RBI, and two strikeouts as the Diamondbacks lost to the Brewers 7-4 on Thursday.
Jon Mathisen
Fri, Jun 4th
 Catcher Will Smith went 2-for-4 with a double, four RBI, a walk, and a run scored as the Dodgers defeated the Rockies 10-4 on Friday.
Jon Mathisen
Sat, Jul 17th
Catcher Carson Kelly went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts as the Diamondbacks lost to the Mets 6-2 on Monday.
Jon Mathisen
Tue, Jun 1st
Notes 
 Smith had an outstanding 2020 season, walking a ton, striking out little, and getting on base at higher than a .400 clip. The power he showed in his 54-game stretch in 2019 remained, and he ranked in the top 10% of the league in wOBA, expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage. Given how the Dodgers play the entire season with an eye toward the playoffs, as well as the presence of Keibert Ruiz, it's possible that Smith may get more rest than other catchers this year. But that's a minor point against someone who should be one of the top options at his position. He's no worse than a top-five catcher, and there's a good argument that he should be the second player selected at his position.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
After an impressive 2019 season during which he hit 18 home runs in just 111 games, Kelly had a down 2020, batting just .221 with five long balls. Kelly's walk rate regressed significantly to just 4.7%, and he showed little of the patience that brought him success in 2019. Daulton Varsho is a threat to his playing time, but it seems like Kelly will have the lead role behind the plate, with Varsho filling in and getting time at outfield. That should make Kelly a borderline startable catcher in most mixed leagues, assuming he can bounce back from his down 2020 campaign.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 The only catcher I think has a better than outside chance at supplanting Realmuto as the C1, he just needs the playing time. Hopefully the Dodgers fully unleash him and stop resting him so often.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 If we were only going off what these players did in 2020, then Smith has a good case to be the No. 2 catcher off the board. Track record matters, however, but early on in the fantasy offseason I've identified Smith as my clear-cut target among backstops. Not only does the 25-year-old have a career .937 OPS in 91 games played, but in the 2020 season he cut his strikeout rate by 10% while increasing his power output. His xwOBA ranked within the 95th percentile of the league, as did his strikeout rate. You just don't see that from a catcher very often. There's a real chance that the Dodgers rest him more often than most top catchers sit, but Smith has a seemingly solid floor with the upside of being a true difference-maker at fantasy's weakest position.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros