Who Should I Draft?
Xander Bogaerts or Manny Machado (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD  | Xander Bogaerts SS - BOS  | |
Expert |
86% Recommended by 43 of 50 experts |
14% Recommended by 7 of 50 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 14 | # 16 |
| Best Rank | # 11 | # 12 |
| Worst Rank | # 25 | # 39 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 20 | # 31 |
| Best Rank | # 16 | # 23 |
| Worst Rank | # 21 | # 33 |
| Projections | ||
| Runs | 92 | 94 |
| Home Runs | 35 | 28 |
| RBI | 105 | 93 |
| Stolen Bases | 10 | 10 |
| Batting Average | .278 | .292 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 14 | # 15 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 12 | # 17 |
| Steve Gardner USA Today | # 14 | # 28 |
| Grey Albright Razzball | # 15 | # 18 |
| Greg Smith The Fake Baseball | # 14 | # 20 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 12 | # 17 |
| Muntradamus Beast Dome | # 17 | # 31 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 12 | # 35 |
| KJ Fantasy Team Advice | # 13 | # 14 |
| Luke Gloeckner Mr. Cheatsheet | # 14 | # 21 |
| Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain | # 11 | # 16 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 14 | # 15 |
| Tim McCullough Baseball Prospectus | # 13 | # 16 |
| Rudy Gamble Razzball | # 17 | # 22 |
| Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall | # 12 | # 15 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 13 | # 15 |
| Chris Meaney FTN | # 14 | # 19 |
| Andy Singleton Expand The Boxscore | # 14 | # 15 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 14 | # 15 |
| Adam Ronis Fantasy Alarm | # 14 | # 18 |
| Mario Mergola Sporfolio | # 13 | # 22 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 13 | # 17 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 14 | # 16 |
| Michael Waterloo FantasyPros | # 16 | # 23 |
| Donkey Teeth Razzball | # 13 | # 23 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 14 | # 16 |
| Andrew Seifter FantasyPros | # 13 | # 15 |
| Max Freeze Freeze Stats | # 14 | # 15 |
| Dennis Sosic Fantasy Six Pack | # 16 | # 22 |
| Mick Ciallela Fantrax | # 15 | # 16 |
| Michael Petropoulos BRoto Fantasy | # 17 | # 18 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 13 | # 14 |
| Todd D Clark The Fantasy Fix | # 12 | # 19 |
| Jacob W. Dunne New Life Fantasy | # 14 | # 16 |
| Lucas Spence Pitcher List | # 13 | # 18 |
| Jordan Eisen Field of Vision Sports | # 13 | # 22 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 11 | # 18 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 13 | # 39 |
| Staff Rankings Roto Ranks | # 14 | # 16 |
| Corbin Young FantasyData | # 16 | # 28 |
| Chris Clegg Fantrax | # 13 | # 16 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 14 | # 17 |
| Nicklaus Gaut RotoBaller | # 13 | # 18 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 14 | # 12 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 15 | # 14 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 19 | # 15 |
| Ryan Amore Pitcher List | # 25 | # 15 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 21 | # 16 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 21 | # 16 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 22 | # 17 |
| Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD | Xander Bogaerts SS - BOS | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| At Bats | 224 | 203 |
| Runs | 44 | 36 |
| Hits | 68 | 61 |
| Singles | 39 | 42 |
| Doubles | 12 | 8 |
| Triples | 1 | 0 |
| Home Runs | 16 | 11 |
| RBI | 47 | 28 |
| Stolen Bases | 6 | 8 |
| Caught Stealing | 3 | 0 |
| Walks | 26 | 21 |
| Strikeouts | 37 | 41 |
| Batting Average | .304 | .301 |
| On Base Pct | .370 | .364 |
| Slugging Pct | .580 | .503 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .950 | .867 |
| Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD | Xander Bogaerts SS - BOS | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| At Bats | 587 | 565 |
| Runs | 92 | 94 |
| Hits | 162 | 163 |
| Singles | 96 | 97 |
| Doubles | 29 | 36 |
| Triples | 2 | 2 |
| Home Runs | 35 | 28 |
| RBI | 105 | 93 |
| Stolen Bases | 10 | 10 |
| Caught Stealing | 4 | 2 |
| Walks | 65 | 62 |
| Strikeouts | 113 | 115 |
| Batting Average | .278 | .292 |
| On Base Pct | .350 | .363 |
| Slugging Pct | .510 | .508 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .860 | .871 |
| Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD | Xander Bogaerts SS - BOS | |
| News | ||
| Manny Machado is hitting third and playing third base on Saturday night against the Dodgers. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Sat, Apr 17th | Xander Bogaerts went a combined 1-for-6 with a double as the Red Sox lost both games of Sunday's doubleheader to the White Sox. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Sun, Apr 18th | |
| Manny Machado went 2-4 with two singles, two walks, two stolen bases, and three runs in the Padres' extra-innings loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Matt Flipi Sat, Apr 17th | Xander Bogaerts went 1-for-4 with a strikeout in Boston's 3-2 win over the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday afternoon. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Wed, Apr 14th | |
| Manny Machado went 1-3 with a home run and 3 RBI in the Padres' win over the Pirates on Thursday. Matt Flipi Fri, Apr 16th | Xander Bogaerts is absent from Thursday's lineup against the Orioles. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Thu, Apr 8th | |
| Manny Machado went 0-3 with a walk and a run scored in the Padres' loss to the Pirates on Wednesday. Matt Flipi Thu, Apr 15th | Xander Bogaerts picked up three more hits in Wednesday's rout over the Rays, finishing 3-for-3 with an RBI and two runs scored. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Thu, Apr 8th | |
| Manny Machado went 1-4 with a single, a walk, and a strikeout in the Padres' win over the Pirates on Monday. Machado also scored two runs in the contest. Matt Flipi Mon, Apr 12th | Xander Bogaerts went 4-for-5 with a double and an RBI as the Red Sox blew out the Rays on Monday night. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Tue, Apr 6th | |
| Notes | ||
| Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | Bogaerts largely backed up his excellent 2019 season with a strong 2020 campaign. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard and his launch angle dropped, but he did manage to maintain his .300 average and put up a similar home run pace. Two things from last year stand out and probably shouldn't be written off entirely: first, Bogaerts' RBI pace dropped significantly, and considering that the Red Sox lineup went from a relative strength to a weakness, it seems unlikely he'll approach 100 RBI in 2021. Second, after dropping for three consecutive seasons, Bogaerts' steal pace increased to the highest of his career. The drop in RBI and increase in steals may be related, as Bogaerts likely looked to manufacture runs with less help around him. Both trends are worth projecting going forward, and while Bogaerts' value doesn't change much, fantasy managers will likely take the increase in steals going forward. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| Being picked at his ceiling, which is always a no-no for me. Was all over him last season with his depressed ADP, now it is too high, and I will have very little shares. Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy | The biggest story of Bogaerts' 2020 season came in the form of going 8-for-8 on stolen base attempts. This, after the All-Star shortstop swiped just four bags in 2019. Steals are so hard to find these days that getting 10-15 from bats who help in the other four offensive categories is going to be a goldmine this season. Bogaerts' Baseball Savant page isn't flooded with red like other premium hitters being drafted around him, but we have enough of a sample size to remain confident in his lofty projections moving forward. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | |
| Machado rode a career-year all the way to a third place finish in the National League MVP voting last summer. He proved to be a massive bargain in fantasy drafts following a disappointing 2019 campaign. Perhaps we never should've overreacted to his first year in San Diego, as Machado remains a tremendous talent. The issue with drafting him in 2021 is that we're paying a premium now. He'll need to produce at a similar rate as last year to pay off his aggressive ADP. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | ||
