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Who Should I Draft?

Zack Wheeler or Chris Paddack (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Zack Wheeler
SP - PHI
Zack Wheeler
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Expert
Recommendation
69%
Recommended by
35 of 51 experts
31%
Recommended by
16 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 30# 34
Best Rank# 19# 17
Worst Rank# 54# 67
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 87# 97
Best Rank# 79# 89
Worst Rank# 102# 116
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts172146
Wins1210
Saves00
ERA3.893.89
WHIP1.231.13
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL10
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 29
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 40
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 28# 41
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 19# 49
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 28# 43
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 33# 64
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 33# 38
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 27# 34
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 27# 37
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 32# 34
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 24# 41
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 21# 39
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 31# 34
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 30# 43
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 32# 43
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 34# 35
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 30# 35
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 21# 50
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 26# 52
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 30# 36
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 29# 44
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 26# 35
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 35# 42
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 32# 34
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 31# 34
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 30# 36
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 27# 43
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 35# 39
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 31# 39
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 27# 62
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 30# 51
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 22# 32
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 29# 34
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 42# 67
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 31# 32
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 27# 26
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 30# 27
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 31# 21
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 32# 28
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 33# 30
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 35# 30
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 35# 29
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 36# 17
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 37# 35
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 38# 30
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 42# 41
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 44# 31
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 47# 44
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 47# 21
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 47# 35
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 54# 24
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Zack Wheeler
SP - PHI
Zack Wheeler
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1112
   
Games Started1112
   
Innings Pitched71.259.2
   
Wins44
   
Losses25
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed6660
   
Earned Runs2331
   
Home Runs Allowed314
   
Strikeouts5358
   
Walks1612
   
ERA2.924.73
   
WHIP1.151.22
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Zack Wheeler
SP - PHI
Zack Wheeler
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3026
   
Games Started3026
   
Innings Pitched182.0139.4
   
Wins1210
   
Losses87
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed177127
   
Earned Runs7960
   
Home Runs Allowed2322
   
Strikeouts172146
   
Walks4731
   
ERA3.893.89
   
WHIP1.231.13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Zack Wheeler
SP - PHI
Zack Wheeler
Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
News 
 Phillies starter Zack Wheeler allowed one earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out nine over six innings in a no-decision Wednesday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Sep 23rd
Padres pitcher Chris Paddack has been placed on the 10-day IL with inflammation in his right elbow. The move is retroactive to Sept. 12, meaning Paddack will be eligible to return on Sept. 22.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
 Phillies starter Zack Wheeler allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk while striking out six over five innings in Friday's win over the Mets. The win brings him to 14-9 on the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Sep 18th
Chris Paddack went six innings on Sunday, allowing three earned runs on six hits. He didn't walk any batters but he also didn't record a strikeout.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 6th
 Phillies starter Zack Wheeler allowed four earned runs on five hits and four walks while striking out four over six innings in Monday's win over the Nationals. The win brings him to 11-9 on the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Tue, Aug 31st
Chris Paddack went 4.2 innings on Monday, allowing one earned run on three hits and no walks. He also struck out five batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 31st
 Phillies starter Zack Wheeler allowed seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits and no walks while striking out 10 over eight innings in Wednesday's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. The loss drops him to 10-9 on the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Aug 26th
Padres RHP Chris Paddack (oblique) will return from the IL for Monday's start against the Diamondbacks.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Aug 30th
 Phillies starter Zack Wheeler allowed six earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over 6 2/3 innings in Thursday's loss to the Diamondbacks.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Aug 20th
San Diego Padres pitcher Chris Paddack (oblique) is expected to throw off a mound soon.
Brad Camara
Wed, Aug 18th
Notes 
 Wheeler's first season in Philadelphia was a success, in that he had the lowest ERA of his career (2.92) and a strong 1.17 WHIP. But his strikeout numbers plummeted, as he struck out just 18.4% of batters. The whiff rate on all of Wheeler's pitches, other than his "show me" curveball, dropped significantly, despite the fact that his velocity remained the same. If Wheeler can again excel at completely limiting hard contact like he did last season (his 85.7 MPH average exit velocity allowed ranked in the top 10% in baseball), then he can probably get away with the lack of strikeouts. Otherwise, he's unlikely to repeat his 2020 success. Given the shortened season, it's a good bet that Wheeler's strikeouts will bounce back, and you can slot him in as an SP3 without much worry.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Paddack followed up his stellar rookie campaign with a subpar sophomore season, as his ERA rose to 4.73 and his WHIP to 1.22, while his strikeout rate dipped below one per inning. Paddack's bread and butter changeup was as good as ever in 2020 (and even better than in 2019), but his usually outstanding fastball just fell apart. After batters hit .204 with a .391 slugging percentage and .275 wOBA against the pitch in 2019, they hit .308 with a .658 slugging percentage and .407 wOBA against it in 2020. Paddack added a cutter in 2020, and it's possible that the addition of the pitch impacted the way he threw his fastball, as the vertical movement of it fell significantly. Either way, Paddack has too much talent to see his ERA hover around 5.00. There's risk given what we saw last year, but it's baked into his draft price.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros