Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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16.
Xander Bogaerts
SS
Bogaerts largely backed up his excellent 2019 season with a strong 2020 campaign. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard and his launch angle dropped, but he did manage to maintain his .300 average and put up a similar home run pace. Two things from last year stand out and probably shouldn't be written off entirely: first, Bogaerts' RBI pace dropped significantly, and considering that the Red Sox lineup went from a relative strength to a weakness, it seems unlikely he'll approach 100 RBI in 2021. Second, after dropping for three consecutive seasons, Bogaerts' steal pace increased to the highest of his career. The drop in RBI and increase in steals may be related, as Bogaerts likely looked to manufacture runs with less help around him. Both trends are worth projecting going forward, and while Bogaerts' value doesn't change much, fantasy managers will likely take the increase in steals going forward.
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19.
Rafael Devers
3B
Devers' 2020 season was . . . fine. That's about the best you can say about it. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, and he increased his barrel rate significantly. His counting stat paces from his breakout 2019 season went down, but not dramatically so (other than his batting average), and fantasy managers never felt like Devers was a drain on their teams. But, at the same time, his already poor walk rate declined, his strikeout rate jumped to a career worst, and he didn't even attempt a single stolen base. Devers is just 24 years old, so there is plenty of upside for him. The safest course of action is to build in some natural regression from Devers' strong 2019 season, and pencil him in for roughly 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. That still makes him an asset to any fantasy team.
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44.
J.D. Martinez
DH,LF,RF
Martinez had a disastrous 2020 season, during which he slashed just .213/.291/.389 and hit seven home runs. Martinez simply didn't hit the ball nearly as hard as he used to, and hit a ton of fly balls, the combination of which helped to drain his batting average significantly. There's a ton to dislike about last year, but given that Martinez has talked about how much he relies on watching video in-game, and his inability to do so last year because of COVID-19 protocols, it seems likely that you can write off last year to a slump that didn't have time to end. He'll be eligible at utility only, but there's a massive opportunity for profit if you are willing to largely look past 2020.
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77.
Alex Verdugo
CF,LF,RF
Verdugo's first season in Boston went about as well as you would have expected. He hit for a high average, scored plenty of runs, and added just a bit of power and speed. But under the hood, there were some concerning signs. Specifically, his quality of contact was generally below the MLB average in every notable measure, and his expected batting average was just .238, a full 70 points below his actual batting average. And his strikeout rate rose to 20.4%, a career worst. But, in the end, Verdugo is going to continue to lead off for the Red Sox and contribute in both batting average and runs scored even on his worst day, and he'll offer at least some production in the remaining categories. Nitpick if you must, but he'll be a valuable contributor overall, regardless of the Statcast data.
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109.
Kyle Schwarber
LF
Schwarber gave back many of his 2019 gains last year, seeing a rise in strikeout rate (29.5%) and his batting average dropping to an abysmal .188. But Schwarber's season was far from linear: over the first half of the season, he slashed .230/.343/.448, but those numbers dropped to .154/.279/.346 over the second half. At the same time, he continued to hit the ball extremely hard, with a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, which was top 5% in the league. Given his consistently hard contact, the better course of action seems to forgive Schwarber for what amounted to an extremely poor 24-game stretch to close out the season. Now batting in the middle of the Nationals lineup with a fresh start and entering his age-28 season, Schwarber should rebound to somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 numbers.
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121.
Christian Vazquez
C
Vazquez was a late bloomer, but he's developed into one of the more reliable catchers in the game. Not only does he provide 20-homer power, but he's one of the best assets at catcher in both batting average and stolen bases. Entering his age-31 season, there's certainly the possibility for a major decline in his numbers, but there is little in his underlying metrics to suggest it is imminent. Draft Vazquez as a strong starter in single-catcher formats, and you won't need to do so before the double-digit rounds.
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153.
Bobby Dalbec
1B,3B
If you like Miguel Sano, you'll absolutely love Dalbec. He crushes the ball routinely (it was a small sample, but he had a 22%(!) barrel rate last year in 23 games), strikes out a ton (42.4% rate last year), and is equally likely to look like the best player in baseball at times as he is to look like the worst. He'll be the everyday first baseman for the Red Sox this year which means plenty of counting stats with perhaps 30 home runs if he stays healthy the whole year. Just have batting average help elsewhere if you draft him, as he'll almost certainly provide negative value in that category.
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202.
Kike Hernandez
2B,CF,SS
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203.
Hunter Renfroe
CF,RF
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220.
Franchy Cordero
1B,LF,RF
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308.
Travis Shaw
1B,3B
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338.
Jeter Downs
SS
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361.
Danny Santana
1B,CF,LF
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364.
Kevin Plawecki
C
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408.
Triston Casas
1B
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468.
Jarren Duran
CF
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474.
Christian Arroyo
2B
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532.
Yairo Munoz
LF
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578.
Connor Wong
C
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584.
Chris Herrmann
C
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608.
Ronaldo Hernandez
C
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667.
Josh Ockimey
1B
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715.
Jonathan Arauz
2B,SS
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