Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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13.
Rafael Devers
3B
Devers hit a career-high 38 HRs in 2021, and the peripherals say there's more where that came from. He was north of the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. Devers doesn't take a lot of walks, but he drives the ball to all fields with authority and should provide a plus batting average. He doesn't run much, but with this sort of hitting profile, that's a minor complaint. He plays in a great hitter's park and has a strong supporting cast. Devers is building an impressive body of work, and he's still only 25. This is a rock-solid investment.
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29.
Xander Bogaerts
SS
He was batting .321 at the All-Star Break last year, but a wrist injury sapped some of his mojo in the back half of the season. Bogaerts has one of the more stable skill sets in MLB. He has a .290 career average, and his run production has been remarkably stable. You can pencil in Bogaerts for 25 HRs, 90 RBI and 90 runs, and he's likely to hew pretty close to those numbers. Fenway Park and a strong lineup work in his favor. He's been so good for so long, it's hard to believe he's still in his 20s.
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30.
Trevor Story
2B,SS
In Colorado, Story was a menace. Away from the mile high air, he's just another guy. Since 2019, Story's batting average has been 80 points lower away from Denver, and his slugging percentage is 150 points lower. He's hit 60.1% of his career home runs at Coors Field, and 62% of his career RBI have come there. Now he'll be playing his home games in Fenway Park, arguably the second-best hitters park in baseball. But while Fenway is good for hitters overall, it actually depresses home runs slightly. Let someone else spend the year complaining that they weren't smart enough to dodge this overpriced bullet.
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59.
J.D. Martinez
DH,LF
Martinez got the bad taste of 2020 out of his mouth with a fine 2021 season. After batting .213 and hitting only seven HRs in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Martinez batted .286 last year with 28 HRs, 99 RBI and 92 runs. Martinez is 34, so there's some age-related risk, but his 2021 Statcast numbers and other peripheral stats suggest that his skill set is aging well. He plays in a great hitter's park, and batting behind Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. FantasyPros rankers like Martinez much more than the general public does - an indication that he's probably a value.
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126.
Nathan Eovaldi
SP
It always feels like Eovaldi should be better given how hard he throws and how good his control is, but it's always been difficult for him to put everything together. But now that he's enjoyed a rare run of health and largely ditched his underwhelming cutter, he's settled into a usable starter that you can draft with relative confidence. He's never going to be a star - his fastball is just too hittable and he pitches in a division with loaded lineups - but you could do far worse than a 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, which Eovaldi has given fantasy managers for two straight seasons. Expect a third in 2022.
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143.
Alex Verdugo
CF,LF,RF
Verdugo is a reliable option for batting average, as he's batted at least .289 in three straight seasons. He doesn't have a ton of pop or speed, though he'll at least chip in with home runs and steals, and because he'll bat near the top of the Red Sox lineup, should be an asset in runs scored. Think of a poor man's version of Michael Brantley in his prime and that's what Verdugo will give you, and that's plenty valuable for fantasy.
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174.
Chris Sale
SP
Sale returned from Tommy John surgery last year and mostly looked like his old self. His velocity was close to pre-surgery levels, and though his strikeout rate dropped a smidge, he was basically the same ace he's always been. A .358 BABIP against Sale last year suggests he got unlucky, yet he still posted a 3.16 ERA. Health is really the only concern for Sale, who was an All-Star for seven straight seasons from 2012 to 2018. Unfortunately, he's already hurt. A stress fracture in his rib cage will cause him to miss the start of the regular season.
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217.
Kike Hernandez
2B,CF
Hernandez had an extremely solid year batting atop the Red Sox lineup, hitting 20 home runs and tallying 84 runs scored. Very little about his underlying batted ball data and overall metrics were different - he just stayed healthy and became an everyday player. His batting average won't help you and he offers nothing in the stolen base category. But he should be a major asset in runs scored and contribute in homers and RBI. With the addition of Trevor Story, he'll likely be the everyday center fielder, but he'll retain his second base eligibility from last year, further strengthening his value. Hernandez won't win you your league, but he's the type of player you can leave in your lineup all year long.
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218.
Bobby Dalbec
1B
Dalbec has a ton of power, and ranked in the top nine percent of the league in average and maximum exit velocity. But he also struck out often, 34.4% of the time, which led to a middling .240 batting average despite him hitting the ball hard consistently. That's likely what we'll see again in his second year, though with more job security and perhaps a minor step up. Dalbec is one of a handful of 25-homer bats going very late in drafts, but he has enough upside to hit 35 without too much needing to go right. That makes him the ideal bench player or corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues.
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221.
Matt Barnes
RP
Barnes was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first half of the season, harnessing his control and dominating with his fastball/cuveball combination. But he fell apart in the second half, seeing his ERA rise by almost four points. There's speculation that his decline was related to MLB cracking down on foreign substances but, either way, the first half version of Barnes disappeared. His job security was in doubt heading into the year, but the Red Sox didn't bring anyone into challenge him and the biggest internal competitior for the job, Garrett Whitlock, has been stretched out for a starter or long-relief role. Expect Barnes to begin the year as the closer but whether he remains all year is anyone's guess. Draft him as a low-end second reliever and hope we say the first-half 2021 version of him.
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239.
Tanner Houck
SP
Houck will begin the year in the rotation despite an uneven spring, and he showed a lot of upside last year. His strikeout rate sat at 30.5% while his walk rate was just 7.4%, and his 3.52 ERA was inflated according to all metrics. He's got an outstanding slider, which is what really propels his success, but his lack of other pitches in his arsenal often forces him to go deep into counts and shortens his outings. He should be on your sleeper list because he has huge potential, but understand that if he struggles, he could be moved to the bullpen, even with Chris Sale currently on the shelf.
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262.
Christian Vazquez
C
Vazquez's power fell off a cliff last year, as his barrel percentage and hard-hit rate plummeted to some of the worst in the league. He's 31 years old now, about the time that a catcher begins to head downhill, so expecting a rebound is probably overly optimistic. He'll likely still have decent runs and RBI for a catcher just by virtue of playing for the Red Sox, but he's no longer someone to draft as your starting backstop in a one-catcher league.
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271.
Garrett Whitlock
RP
Whitlock pitched out of the bullpen last year and many speculated that he might be a candidate to close this season after Matt Barnes struggled down the stretch. But instead he's being stretched out and is battling it out for a rotation spot. If he fails, he'll likely be a long-reliever and have little fantasy value. But, if he does lock down a starting spot, he has a great deal of upside. His fastball sits at 95 miles per hour and both his changeup and slider are above average. Monitor the reports as we head into the season but keep him on your radar in case he does land in the rotation.
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377.
Nick Pivetta
SP
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397.
Jarren Duran
CF
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427.
Jake Diekman
RP
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477.
Rich Hill
SP
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510.
Triston Casas
1B
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582.
Josh Taylor
RP
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603.
Hansel Robles
RP
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615.
Michael Wacha
SP
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651.
Ryan Brasier
RP
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665.
James Paxton
SP
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666.
Hirokazu Sawamura
RP
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698.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
CF
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701.
Matt Strahm
RP
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768.
Bryce Brentz
LF
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778.
Darwinzon Hernandez
RP
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779.
Kevin Plawecki
C
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841.
Kutter Crawford
SP
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857.
Jeter Downs
SS
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952.
Austin Davis
RP
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982.
Carlos Martinez
SP
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991.
Connor Seabold
SP
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1017.
Christian Arroyo
2B,RF
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1132.
Connor Wong
C
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1164.
Eduard Bazardo
RP
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1207.
John Schreiber
RP
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1262.
Kaleb Ort
RP
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1294.
Rob Refsnyder
CF,LF
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1343.
Franchy Cordero
1B,LF
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1358.
Taylor Cole
RP
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1363.
Christin Stewart
LF
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1372.
Tyler Danish
SP
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1395.
Geoff Hartlieb
RP
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1429.
Jonathan Arauz
SS
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1464.
Jaylin Davis
LF
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1520.
Michael Feliz
RP
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1547.
Yolmer Sanchez
3B
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1583.
Phillips Valdez
RP
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