Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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56.
Javier Baez
SS
Everything went wrong for Baez in 2020. His already high strikeout rate increased to 31.9%. His already low walk rated fell to an abysmal 3.0%. He swung less, made contact less, and did not hit the ball as hard as he used to. In the end, Baez earned every bit of his .203 batting average and poor counting stats. But how much weight do you put into a 59-game stretch for a veteran like Baez, particularly when he complained that his inability to watch video between at-bats affected his overall performance. The answer is a little, but not all that much. Baez had a stellar three-year run as a reliable power-speed combination, and he'll be just 28 years old this season. The Cubs lineup won't be overly strong, but Baez should certainly put up numbers closer to his 2017-2019 totals than those he put up in 2020.
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74.
Anthony Rizzo
1B
Rizzo's average dropped to just .222 last year and his counting stats waned, though the latter failing was much more due to the lack of production from the rest of the Cubs lineup. His walk and strikeout rates, however, stayed mostly in line, and his BABIP was an artificially low .218 (career mark of .289), which is partly why there was such a gap between his xBA of .266 and his actual batting average. With that said, Rizzo didn't hit the ball nearly as hard last year, as he saw career worsts in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. He likely won't ever be the player he was at his peak, but there's still plenty in his bat that can help fantasy managers, including the handful of steals he will throw in each year. He's a starting-caliber first baseman still, without question, and he'll go at a discount because of last year's numbers.
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77.
Kyle Hendricks
SP
Hendricks is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy pitchers in that he never gets the respect he deserves. He's had an ERA above 3.46 once in his career and he's never had a WHIP higher than 1.19. Yes, his strikeout rate is never going to help fantasy managers, but Dave Ross let him go deeper into games last year (Hendricks' 81 innings pitched were among the most in MLB), so he should make up for his lack of strikeout rate with some additional innings. The Cubs probably won't be a great team but the NL Central has mostly weak offenses, so Hendricks should find his way to enough wins to make a difference. Ignore the fact that he outperforms his expected metrics every year. Hendricks is a reliable, high-end SP3 for a fantasy team. Just be sure to take care of strikeouts elsewhere.
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100.
Kris Bryant
1B,3B,LF,CF,RF
Bryant had a terrible 2020 season, but it seems like fantasy managers are forgetting how consistent he's been. Over the last four seasons, he has a 162-game pace of a .278 average, 29 home runs, 112 run scored, 80 RBI, and five steals. His quality of contact was awful last season, but hard contact has never really been his calling card anyway, and he battled back and wrist injuries. Bryant doesn't deserve a mulligan entirely for last season, but give it minimal weight in your evaluation.
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138.
Willson Contreras
C
Contreras has established a pretty decent baseline for what fantasy managers can expect over the course of a full season. He'll likely give you a floor of 15 home runs and 110 combined runs and RBI, with upside for more. Those numbers don't sound impressive, but they're enough to make Contreras a top-five catcher easily. Given his safety, there's an argument to be made to take him as high as second overall at the position. But, even so, there's no need to select him before the eighth round or so, as there's not an appreciable difference in the production of the next seven or eight catchers beyond J.T. Realmuto.
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140.
Ian Happ
2B,3B,LF,CF
Happ has always made consistently hard contact, but his strikeout rate was simply untenable, hovering around 34% in his first two seasons. But he has cut that down to a more manageable 26% over the last two years, and he's batted .260 with 23 home runs and 58 RBI over 115 games in that span. Happ has some speed even if he hasn't shown it recently, and he'll likely bat leadoff for the Cubs, who may need to manufacture runs more than in previous years. The average probably won't help you much, but he should contribute in four categories at a relatively inexpensive price.
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171.
Craig Kimbrel
RP
As a whole, Kimbrel's 2020 numbers were abysmal. A 5.28 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a walk rate of 17.4%. And yet, there were some encouraging signs. Not only did his strikeout rate bounce back to 40.6%, but he was actually an elite pitcher after his first four outings. How elite? He pitched to a 1.42 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and stuck out 53.1% of the batters he faced. It wasn't perfect, as Kimbrel still walked five batters per nine innings over that stretch. But he showed that he still has some has left in the tank. Although he never reclaimed the closer's job despite his strong finish, it's a good bet that the Cubs hand him the ninth-inning role to start, as they try to rebuild his trade value in the final year of his deal. That means Kimbrel should at least get save chances for the first several weeks of the season, and, as such, should be drafted as low-end second closer with just a modicum of upside.
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262.
Zach Davies
SP
Davies has quietly put together two quality seasons, with a 3.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2019, and a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year. Notably, he started throwing more changeups in 2020, which led both to an increased swinging strike rate and strikeout rate. But his xERA was still 5.01, and although he routinely outperforms his expected stats, it's a reminder not to get too high on a pitcher who amounts to a command specialist. The upside is that after a trade to the Cubs, he'll face mostly weak offenses, which should help to boost his floor a bit.
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376.
Adbert Alzolay
SP
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391.
Jason Heyward
CF,RF
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451.
Nico Hoerner
2B,3B,SS
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481.
Rowan Wick
RP
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493.
David Bote
2B,3B
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502.
Alec Mills
SP,RP
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559.
Andrew Chafin
RP
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584.
Jason Adam
RP
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627.
Austin Romine
C
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662.
Ryan Tepera
RP
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671.
Jake Marisnick
CF
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720.
Eric Sogard
2B,3B,RF
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731.
Jake Arrieta
SP
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813.
Dan Winkler
RP
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823.
Trevor Williams
SP
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827.
Jonathan Holder
RP
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906.
Justin Steele
SP,RP
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948.
Keegan Thompson
SP,RP
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964.
Cory Abbott
SP,RP
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984.
Kyle Ryan
RP
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1001.
Dakota Chalmers
SP
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1044.
Brad Wieck
RP
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1050.
Tony Wolters
C
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1086.
Robinson Chirinos
C
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1115.
Tony Cingrani
SP,RP
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1117.
Dillon Maples
RP
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1142.
Adam Morgan
RP
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1165.
Trevor Megill
RP
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1248.
Trayce Thompson
CF,RF
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1283.
Matt Duffy
2B,3B
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1290.
Manuel Rodriguez
RP
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1296.
Brailyn Marquez
RP
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1342.
Rex Brothers
RP
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1343.
Kohl Stewart
SP,RP
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1370.
Joe Biagini
RP
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1405.
P.J. Higgins
C
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1427.
Jose Lobaton
C
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1456.
Michael Hermosillo
LF
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1459.
Rafael Ortega
LF,CF,RF
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1474.
Sergio Alcantara
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1532.
Ian Miller
CF,RF
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1535.
Patrick Wisdom
1B,3B
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