Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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35.
Luis Castillo
SP
Castillo turned in another excellent season last year, cutting his walk rate and striking out batters at a higher rate than he ever had in his career. His WHIP increased to a career-worst 1.23, but that was largely due to bad luck, as batters hit .232 against him despite an expected batting average of just .212. Nevertheless, Castillo kept runs off the board, largely because he was able to avoid home runs (just five in 70 innings) and limit free passes. Castillo is capable of fronting a fantasy pitching staff, though he's more of a low-end ace, and there are plenty of trade rumors following him around. But, given his reliable production and increased strikeout rate the past two seasons, he can be drafted with confidence.
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64.
Eugenio Suarez
3B
Suarez's power numbers were again strong in last year's shortened season, but his batting average plummeted to just .202. He hit the ball as hard as ever, however, and ranked in the top 9% of the league in average exit velocity. Suarez's BABIP was just .214 (he has a .310 mark), and although he hit more fly balls than usual, there's nothing to suggest that his batting average should have fallen off a cliff. In other words, there's plenty of reason to expect Suarez to hit closer to his .261 career batting average this year. Add to that his potential for 40 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI, and he'll likely be a value in this year's draft.
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72.
Sonny Gray
SP
Two dreadful starts late in the season severely hurt what was otherwise a strong 2020 campaign for Gray, though it was a bizarre year. His strikeout rate surpassed 30% for the first time in his career, while his walk rate jumped to 11.1%. He was also far more hittable, particularly his slider and curveball, which had been dominant pitches in 2019. But even if Gray simply repeats his 2020 season, his strikeout rate and decent ERA and WHIP should be enough to make him a borderline SP2 for fantasy leagues. Considering we've seen much more than that from him in 2019, fantasy managers should have no hesitation drafting him.
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74.
Nick Castellanos
RF
Castellanos hit for plenty of power last season with the Reds, but it was far from the full breakout season many expected. His strikeout rate jumped to 28.5%, his batting average cratered to a career-low .225, and his wOBA was his worst mark since 2015. But Castellanos was also the victim of some pretty terrible luck, given that he had an expected batting average of .273 and a strong 46.7% hard-hit rate. With a full year in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos should fully live up to the hype he had coming into the 2020 season if he can just have even normal luck. Draft him with confidence as a likely strong four-category contributor.
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115.
Mike Moustakas
2B
Because Moustakas was a hitter who played for the Reds, he had a poor 2020 season (seriously, look at their collective numbers). He walked more, struck out more, and lost some points on his batting average, but overall, there was little different in Moustakas's profile. He continued to hit for power and make quality contact. He may not score many runs given his lack of speed and surrounding cast, and the batting average isn't going to help you. But he's got plenty of power for a second-base eligible player, and there's no sign that his production is ready to fall off a cliff.
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186.
Tyler Mahle
SP
Mahle's solid 2020 season (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) will probably slip under the radar, but there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about him with a guaranteed spot in the Reds rotation. His strikeout rate jumped to 30% on the back of a 4.4% increase in his swinging strike rate, and he had just a .188 expected batting average against, top 10% in the league. The biggest change for Mahle was that he brought back a slider that he had shelved entirely in 2019, and batters hit just .180 against the pitch with a .249 wOBA. He could do well to cut down on his walks a bit, but still, as a fifth starter for your fantasy team, there's plenty of potential for profit.
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198.
Jesse Winker
DH
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254.
Nick Senzel
CF
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258.
Amir Garrett
RP
Garrett cut way down on his walks in 2020 and had the best season of his career, striking out 37.7% of the batters he faced. He also retired the first batter he faced in every inning, and completely dominated against left-handed hitters. He's in the mix to be the Reds' closer with Lucas Sims and Sean Doolittle, and he's been vocal about wanting the job. He's probably the first reliever to draft out of Cincinnati until there's some clarity, but it's far from a sure thing that he'll be the everyday closer.
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267.
Joey Votto
1B
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363.
Tejay Antone
RP
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376.
Michael Lorenzen
RP
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381.
Lucas Sims
RP
Sims had a fine 2020, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA a 0.94 WHIP, and plenty of strikeouts. He'll be in the mix for the Reds' closer job with Amir Garrett and Sean Doolittle, though his early bout with elbow soreness this spring doesn't help him. Monitor the reports out of spring training, but he's a late-round speculative draft pick at best at the moment.
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410.
Shogo Akiyama
CF,LF
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415.
Sean Doolittle
RP
After missing most of 2020 with various injuries, Doolittle took a small one-year deal from the Reds in his hope of a bounceback season. He's been trending the wrong way for a couple of seasons now, but he did tally at least 24 saves in each season between 2017 and 2019. Doolittle is the only one in the Reds bullpen with much closing experience, so if he performs well this spring, he could win the ninth-inning job. But there's a ton of uncertainty, and given Doolittle's small contract, it's far from a sure thing that he sees any save opportunities in 2021.
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485.
Aristides Aquino
LF
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519.
Tyler Stephenson
C
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618.
Cam Bedrosian
RP
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643.
Tucker Barnhart
C
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686.
Jose Garcia
SS
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762.
Riley O'Brien
SP
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768.
Vladimir Gutierrez
SP
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795.
Wade Miley
SP
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814.
Tyler Naquin
RF
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820.
Dee Strange-Gordon
2B
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877.
Noe Ramirez
RP
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981.
Joel Kuhnel
RP
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983.
Ryan Hendrix
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1024.
Tony Santillan
SP
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1028.
Cionel Perez
RP
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1103.
Art Warren
RP
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1115.
R.J. Alaniz
RP
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1151.
Hector Perez
RP
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1167.
Jesse Biddle
RP
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1183.
Sal Romano
RP
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1187.
Josh Osich
RP
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1198.
Jeff Hoffman
RP
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1213.
Brandon Bailey
RP
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1223.
Edgar Garcia
RP
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1248.
Jose De Leon
RP
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1312.
Kyle Farmer
SS
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1314.
Deivy Grullon
C
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1351.
Kyle Holder
SS
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1359.
Mark Payton
LF
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1377.
Scott Heineman
CF
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1388.
Alex Blandino
2B
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1391.
Max Schrock
2B
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1477.
Alfredo Rodriguez
SS
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1501.
Cheslor Cuthbert
3B
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1504.
Jonathan India
3B
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