Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
|
9.
Christian Yelich
LF
Yelich's 2020 season was, in a word, bizarre. After batting .327 combined from 2018-2019, his batting average dropped to a meager .205 last year. Although he hit the ball as hard as ever, setting career highs in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage, his strikeout rate ballooned more than 10 points to 30.8%. At the same time, Yelich's walk rate jumped up to 18.6%. Unsurprisingly, the reason for the jump in both Yelich's strikeouts and walks was that he simply swung less - just 34.6% of the time after his mark hovered above 44% the previous two seasons. If Yelich takes the same passive approach in 2021, then it's likely that his batting average will remain below what fantasy managers had come to expect. But considering that his season was so out of line with what he'd produced since coming to Milwaukee, fantasy managers should expect far more this season, and feel confident drafting him late in the first round.
|
|
40.
Brandon Woodruff
SP
There were some skeptics after Woodruff succeeded in 2019 based largely on one pitch - his devastating fastball - but he put those concerns to rest in 2020. His ERA (3.05) and WHIP (0.99) were incredibly strong, particularly when you consider that he struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings. Woodruff's fastball hits rests at 96 MPH and is one of the better pitches in baseball, but his slider and changeup both made strides last year. The Brewers are reportedly planning to add about 100 innings to their starter's workloads last season, so pencil Woodruff in for roughly 175 extremely strong frames. You can survive with him as your fantasy ace, though he's best as an incredibly strong number 2.
|
|
63.
Josh Hader
RP
Hader wasn't quite as dominant as he had been the previous two years, largely due to a spike in walk rate and the slightest of declines in strikeout rate. But he still tallied 13 saves, third-best in baseball, and had a miniscule 0.95 WHIP. If you parse it closely, it was just a bizarre season for Hader, who didn't give up a run through his first nine appearances, but subsequently allowed four runs in an inning. He walked five batters in a game, but didn't allow a single walk in any game after that, a span of 11 appearances. In other words, there seems to be a lot of noise in Hader's "decline," which likely would have been ironed out over the course of a full season. Draft him as the top closer off the board with few concerns.
|
|
64.
Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
|
|
68.
Keston Hiura
2B,DH,1B
Hiura looked to be on the verge of superstardom heading into 2020, if he could just cut back on his bloated 30.7% strikeout rate. Instead, he struck out more than ever (34.6% of the time), en route to a league-leading 85 strikeouts. That led to a massive drop in production, notably in batting average, which fell from .303 in 2019 to .212 last year. Hiura was never a high-strikeout player in the minors. He never struck out more than 26.3% in any level and he had an overall strikeout rate of just 21%. If he can manage to cut down on the whiffs, he should be a top option at second base given his power and speed, but for now, drop him down your draft board a bit from where he was heading into 2020. He's still a borderline top-five option, especially since he will add first base eligibility after the Brewers signed Kolten Wong, but exercise more caution.
|
|
179.
Devin Williams
RP
You have to hand it to the Brewers - they produce relievers who put up historically great seasons. Williams wasn't just good in 2020 - he was truly beyond belief. A 0.33 ERA. One run and eight hits allowed in 27 innings. A 44% K-BB%. Williams has battled injuries for much of his career, but given what he did last year, he should be drafted among the elite fantasy relievers in the game. Even if he never gets a save chance with Josh Hader in front of him, his ratios make him more than worth it.
|
|
218.
Kolten Wong
2B
Wong lands in a great situation with the Brewers, where he's expected to lead off in front of a strong lineup. His quality of contact is incredibly poor, but in Miller Park, he should be a good bet for 10-15 homers, and he'll throw in 15-20 steals despite having a fairly average sprint speed. There's not a ton of upside for Wong, but absent injury, there's not a whole lot of downside for him in Milwaukee either. He's not a startable second baseman in mixed leagues, but he's a fine middle infielder or bench option.
|
|
222.
Lorenzo Cain
CF
Cain opted out of the season last year after just five games, but he'll play and bat near the top of the Brewers' lineup this year. His steals total dropped to just 18 in 2019, and his sprint speed has been declining in recent years. But he talked openly about wanting to try to steal more bases before he opted out last year, and he's still a safe bet for batting average and double-digit homers. He's been forgotten a bit in drafts this year, but he's a fine fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
|
|
243.
Freddy Peralta
RP,SP
|
|
329.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
CF
|
|
335.
Avisail Garcia
CF,RF
|
|
351.
Josh Lindblom
SP
|
|
386.
Omar Narvaez
C
|
|
424.
Brent Suter
SP,RP
|
|
446.
Adrian Houser
SP
|
|
449.
Luis Urias
2B,3B,SS
|
|
559.
Drew Rasmussen
RP
|
|
601.
Justin Topa
RP
|
|
633.
Manny Pina
C
|
|
640.
Brett Anderson
SP
|
|
643.
Travis Shaw
1B,3B
|
|
691.
Ray Black
RP
|
|
709.
J.P. Feyereisen
RP
|
|
711.
Eric Yardley
RP
|
|
773.
Zack Godley
SP
|
|
784.
Daniel Vogelbach
DH
|
|
788.
Dylan File
SP
|
|
810.
Derek Fisher
RF
|
|
814.
Ethan Small
SP
|
|
853.
Dee Strange-Gordon
2B,LF
|
|
897.
Eric Lauer
SP
|
|
924.
Mark Mathias
RF
|
|
926.
Tim Lopes
LF,RF,DH
|
|
935.
Zack Brown
SP
|
|
965.
Jacob Nottingham
C
|
|
975.
Jordan Zimmermann
SP
|
|
980.
Aaron Ashby
SP
|
|
1134.
Bobby Wahl
RP
|
|
1136.
Brad Boxberger
RP
|
|
1139.
Blaine Hardy
RP
|
|
1142.
Alec Bettinger
SP
|
|
1147.
Daniel Robertson
SS
|
|
1164.
Angel Perdomo
RP
|
|
1202.
Hoby Milner
RP
|
|
1254.
Jace Peterson
RF
|
|
1298.
Chad Sobotka
RP
|
|
1323.
Phil Bickford
RP
|
|
1325.
Patrick Weigel
RP
|
|
1415.
Luke Maile
C
|
|
1436.
Tyrone Taylor
RF
|
|
1445.
Billy McKinney
LF
|
|
1511.
Zach Green
3B
|
|
1519.
Dustin Peterson
LF
|
|
1526.
Corey Ray
CF
|
