Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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6.
Jacob deGrom
SP
deGrom barely missed out on winning his third straight Cy Young Award last year, but it was yet another dominant season. For the third straight year, he came in with a WHIP under 1.00, an ERA under 2.50, and a strikeout percentage above 31%. deGrom is getting up there in age, but it's worth remembering that he has fewer miles on his arm than most pitcher entering their age-33 season, given that he didn't transition to pitching until late in his college career and missed significant time with injuries during his time in the minors. deGrom has shown no decline in his game, and should hopefully (finally) begin to pile on more wins this year pitching for a better team in front of an improved bullpen. He should be the first or second starting pitcher taken and is an obvious first-round pick.
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16.
Francisco Lindor
SS
Lindor's season wasn't particularly impressive, as his surface numbers regressed fairly significantly from his previous three seasons. But, under the hood, not much changed. His walk rate and strikeout rate were largely steady, and his statcast data remained on par with his career marks. He also got much better to close the year, batting .285 with a 122 wRC+ over his final 39 games. Just 27 years old and now with a stronger lineup with the Mets, Lindor should put up numbers closer to his 2017-2019 levels, especially since he'll be playing for a new contract after this season. He'll come at a bit of a discount in the second round this year, and he's well worth your investment at that price.
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46.
Pete Alonso
1B,DH
Alonso didn't quite follow up his incredible 2019 season last year, but he certainly wasn't terrible. The vast majority of his underlying statcast data and metrics looked similar, and he mostly just didn't make quite as consistently hard contact as he did the previous year. Alonso is never going to help you in batting average, but you should expect 40 home runs and 100 RBI this year and for the foreseeable future. With such a high floor, Alonso makes a more than adequate starting first baseman in mixed leagues.
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59.
Michael Conforto
RF
Conforto built on his excellent 2019 season by trading off a bit of power for some batting average. Fed by a significant increase in line drive rate that led to a .412 BABIP, Conforto batted a career best .322 last year. His xBA was just .284, so don't think that he suddenly morphed into a high average bat, but he did hit above .300 against every type of pitch last year, so it was certainly more than luck. Expect some regression to closer to his .259 mark, but he should hit around 30 homers with plenty of runs and RBI and even toss in a few steals. That makes him a worthwhile OF2 in mixed leagues.
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85.
Edwin Diaz
RP
Diaz's overall numbers bounced back in a monstrous way last season. He dropped his ERA from a bloated 5.59 in 2019 to a 1.75, and upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 45.5%. He was among the league leaders in nearly every expected statistic (batting average, slugging percentage wOBA, and ERA), and he cut his HR/9 rate from 2.33 to just 0.70. Diaz's walk rate actually regressed, however, as he issued free passes to nearly five batters per nine innings. That's not often a recipe for success from a closer, but Diaz can survive at that rate if he continues to keep the strikeouts up and limit the long balls. In the end, Diaz does carry some risk given his history, but he should be drafted as one of the upper echelon closers in the game, if not a touch behind the truly elite options.
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93.
Jeff McNeil
2B,LF
Much of McNeil's 2020 season looked similar to his year in 2019. He hit over .300, rarely struck out, and got on base plenty. But the power gains that we saw in 2019 vanished, as he hit just four home runs over 52 games. His barrel rate (2.5%) and hard-hit percentage (26.5%) were some of the worst in the league, and he didn't even offer the token stolen base that he had chipped in during previous seasons. This is a scenario where McNeil's value to any particular fantasy manager will depend on the weight he or she gives to the shortened 2020 season. Given that McNeil never hit the ball particularly hard anyway, though, a good bet is to assume he at least returns to the high teens in home runs, slightly below his 2019 pace. With his strong average and multi-position eligibility, that makes McNeil an asset in the middle rounds.
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128.
Dominic Smith
1B,LF
Smith showed he had the bat to hit in the majors in 2019, but he took an extra step forward in last year's shortened season. His .316/.377/.616 slash line effectively forced the Mets to find a way to get his bat into the lineup, even if his defense tried to prevent it. His Statcast data was excellent, as he put up a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%, all with a .405 wOBA, which was in the top four percent of the league. The issue for Smith is his fielding and with the National League surprisingly not adopting the designated hitter, that means he'll need to play out in left field most days. Although the Mets can surely live with the tradeoff, Smith will likely lose plenty of at-bats late in games as he gets switched out for defensive purposes. He'll still have plenty of value, but without the DH, be cautious with your projections for his counting stats.
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168.
Marcus Stroman
SP
Stroman missed the entire 2020 season after battling a calf injury and then opting out, but he'll return to the Mets after accepting the team's qualifying offer. Stroman's strikeout rate jumped after his trade to the National League, but with a career 58.7% ground ball rate, he'll need the Mets' infield defense to be better than it was in 2019. The trade for Francisco Lindor should help, as should his reported development of both a new split changeup and four-seam fastball. Stroman has always had a decent floor, but now out of the AL East and with some tweaks to his arsenal coming, he possesses plenty of upside as a late-round draft pick.
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170.
Carlos Carrasco
SP
Carrasco suffered a serious hamstring strain in mid-March which is likely to keep him out 6-8 weeks. It's a devastating blow to the veteran who returned strong from his battle with leukemia in 2019 to post a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2020. There was plenty to like about Carrasco in New York, including that the Mets will provide him with a better chance at wins, their infield defense should be above average, and Carrasco will play in a more favorable park. But at this point, he's nothing more than a bench starter for your fantasy team given his injury.
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209.
James McCann
C
McCann will be the everyday catcher for the Mets after putting up his second consecutive successful season for the White Sox. After putting up a .789 OPS in 2019, he jumped up to an .896 mark in 2020, setting a career-high in walk rate. McCann was a part-timer last year, so his rate stats will likely dip as he takes over a heavy workload with the Mets (Wilson Ramos ranked fourth among catchers in plate appearances the last two seasons). But counting stats should be there in spades in a strong Mets lineup. He should be drafted as a starting catcher in 12-team formats.
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221.
J.D. Davis
3B,DH
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227.
Brandon Nimmo
LF,CF,RF
Nimmo has a career .390 OBP and will be batting atop the Mets lineup this year, and that's really all you need to know for his fantasy value. He'll likely be a steady contributor in the runs scored category, while chipping in some homers and steals with a batting average that won't hurt you much. He might see a bit of a platoon against left-handers, but he's a player who will cost you nothing in drafts and who can fill in for your team if you need him. He's worth a bench spot in all 10-team or deeper leagues.
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272.
Jonathan Villar
2B,SS,3B
Villar's quality of contact dropped significantly last year, but given how out of character it was for his career, the decline can probably be written off to the small sample of the shortened season. But he was still one of the league leaders in stolen bases with 16 and he showed no hesitation about running whenever he got the chance. The bigger issue is that Villar won't have a regular role now that he's with the Mets, but instead will be a super-utility player. With that said, Villar's versatility should allow him to see a few starts each week, and he should see action as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. All that to say that Villar should tack on 15-20 steals over the course of the season, and therefore make a viable middle infield option despite his lack of a regular role.
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287.
Taijuan Walker
SP
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298.
Noah Syndergaard
SP
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387.
Trevor May
RP
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408.
Seth Lugo
SP,RP
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442.
Kevin Pillar
CF,RF
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475.
Joey Lucchesi
SP
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476.
David Peterson
SP
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527.
Dellin Betances
RP
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537.
Aaron Loup
RP
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575.
Miguel Castro
RP
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655.
Jeurys Familia
RP
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704.
Tomas Nido
C
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719.
Jacob Barnes
RP
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771.
Albert Almora Jr.
CF
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819.
Sam McWilliams
SP
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837.
Luis Guillorme
2B,3B
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901.
Thomas Szapucki
SP
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938.
Robert Gsellman
SP,RP
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957.
Jordan Yamamoto
SP
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1036.
Tommy Hunter
RP
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1062.
Jose Peraza
2B
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1064.
Jose Martinez
DH
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1070.
Mallex Smith
RF
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1095.
Brandon Drury
3B
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1120.
Arodys Vizcaino
RP
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1131.
Drew Smith
RP
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1137.
Stephen Tarpley
RP
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1148.
Trevor Hildenberger
RP
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1157.
Daniel Zamora
RP
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1166.
Jerry Blevins
RP
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1171.
Corey Oswalt
SP
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1180.
Sean Reid-Foley
RP
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1227.
Yennsy Diaz
SP
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1332.
Franklyn Kilome
RP
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1400.
Deivy Grullon
C
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1417.
Patrick Mazeika
C
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1508.
Khalil Lee
RF
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