Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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35.
Jack Flaherty
SP
Flaherty ended up with a 4.91 ERA, but that hardly represents his actual performance, given that he allowed nine runs in a three-inning start in September. If you take out that outing, Flaherty had just a 3.13 ERA, and he didn't allow more than three earned runs in any of his eight other starts. Given that Flaherty's season was shorter than most due to the Cardinals' COVID-19 issues, it's fair to essentially throw out at that one abysmal outing, considering his other numbers were relatively consistent from 2019. Indeed, his swinging strike rate improved, as did his K/9 rate and ground ball percentage. With his devastating slider, Flaherty should still be considered one of the top pitchers in the real and fantasy game, and is capable of fronting a fantasy staff.
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40.
Nolan Arenado
3B
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
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75.
Paul Goldschmidt
1B
Goldschmidt had an interesting 2020 season, during which he brought his batting average back up to .304 and his walk rate to 16%, while simultaneously dropping his strikeout rate to a career best 18.6%. After swinging more than he ever had in his first season with the Cardinals, Goldschmidt returned to the patient approach he had developed throughout his career, swinging at just 40.5% of pitches (after a 46.4% swinging strike rate the year before). But while his average went up, his power waned, as he hit just six home runs and had a career-worst .466 slugging percentage. Nolan Arenado batting behind him this year should help, and he had bone chips removed from his elbow this offseason. There could be another big-time power season left in Goldschmidt's bat, but the more likely scenario is that he will put up solid but unspectacular production at the first base position.
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156.
Tommy Edman
3B,SS,RF
After a highly successful 2019 season in which he hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in 92 games, Edman's numbers regressed in nearly every meaningful way last year. His batting average slipped from .304 to just .250, he hit just five home runs, and he went 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Edman was a bit unlucky last year, as his xBA and xSLG outperformed his actual numbers. And despite his down year on the basepaths, he was in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He's likely to lead off for the Cardinals this year, and should be good for double digits in both home runs and steals, with plenty of runs scored. Considering he has multi-position eligibility, he should be drafted before the double-digit rounds.
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163.
Dylan Carlson
LF,CF,RF
Carlson caught major buzz heading into the season last year as he looked likely to earn an everyday role in the outfield, but he sputtered for much of the season even when he did play, slashing just .200/.252/.364 with three home runs in 119 plate appearances. But he had a successful, albeit brief, post-season, and now again looks ready to claim a starting outfield spot for the Cardinals. Carlson is just 22 years old and has a strong minor-league track record. If he can hold down his spot, he has 25-15 potential, and should hit for a solid average. Given his age and his poor 2020 season, there's some obvious risk, but the draft capital necessary to get him on your team is not prohibitive, and his upside should make him a target in all formats.
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193.
Paul DeJong
SS
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257.
Giovanny Gallegos
RP
Gallegos pitched well last year with the Cardinals despite seeing limited innings because of his difficulty in getting to the states in the middle of a pandemic. But he was effective when he pithed, and owns a career 3.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 31.6% strikeout rate. The Cardinals want Jordan Hicks to be their closer, but Gallegos will undoubtedly be in the mix should Hick prove ineffective or suffer a setback in his return from Tommy John surgery.
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270.
Kwang Hyun Kim
SP
If you want upside with a late-round pitcher, you're looking in the wrong place with Kim. Although he put up a 1.62 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year, his xFIP and SIERA were each about three runs higher than his ERA. He also struck out just 5.54 batters per nine innings, and never showed much strikeout potential in the KBO. That said, for a pitcher who is basically free in drafts, he offers some decent stability, and is worth taking late if you have an otherwise strong staff, particularly with strikeouts.
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285.
Yadier Molina
C
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294.
Jordan Hicks
RP
Hicks is likely to serve as the Cardinals' closer this year if he can show that he has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. He totaled 20 saves from 2018-2019 before hurting his elbow, and then opted out of last season, in part because of setbacks in his recovery. Early reports from the spring are promising, and it seems that the Cardinals want him and his 100+ MPH fastball to lead the way in the ninth inning. Monitor his health in the spring, but draft him late for now and expect saves so long as he is healthy.
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323.
Miles Mikolas
SP
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367.
Adam Wainwright
SP
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385.
Alex Reyes
RP
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398.
Carlos Martinez
SP
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409.
Tyler O'Neill
LF
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414.
Harrison Bader
CF
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463.
Andrew Miller
RP
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483.
Andrew Knizner
C
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488.
Matt Carpenter
3B,DH
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498.
Dakota Hudson
SP
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527.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
SP
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781.
Ryan Helsley
RP
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841.
Genesis Cabrera
RP
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855.
Angel Rondon
SP
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861.
Lane Thomas
RF
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875.
John Gant
RP
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938.
Tyler Webb
RP
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1077.
Seth Elledge
RP
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1109.
Kodi Whitley
RP
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1184.
Junior Fernandez
RP
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1226.
Johan Quezada
RP
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1239.
Johan Oviedo
SP
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1262.
Jake Woodford
RP
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1280.
Tyler Heineman
C
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1336.
Ali Sanchez
C
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1354.
Austin Dean
LF
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1375.
Edmundo Sosa
2B
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1383.
Justin Williams
RF
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1460.
John Nogowski
1B
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1469.
Evan Mendoza
3B
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1471.
Max Moroff
2B
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1516.
Kramer Robertson
SS
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