Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
|
4.
Juan Soto
LF,RF
There aren't enough superlatives in the English language to describe what Soto has done in his career given his young age. Had he merely repeated his incredible 2019 numbers last season, fantasy managers would have been ecstatic. Instead, he upped his walk rate from an elite 16.4% to a truly remarkable 20.9%, cut his strikeout rate down to just 14.3%, and batted .351. Soto does not have the speed or baserunning chops to steal 30 bases in a season, which is the only thing keeping him from being considered worthy of drafting first overall. But given what he's accomplished through his age-21 season, it's truly scary to think of how high his ceiling may be. Draft him as a top-five pick and enjoy the ridiculous production.
|
|
73.
Stephen Strasburg
SP
Strasburg was limited to just five innings in 2020, with an injury that eventually required carpal tunnel syndrome. Although that's a minor surgery, the truth is that fantasy managers have very little data as to the impact and/or successful recovery rate after that surgery for pitchers. Strasburg's a tricky draft pick in any given year - he always provides strong value when he's on the mound, but has only topped 200 innings pitched twice in his career. Now entering his age-33 season, Strasburg will likely again provide excellent overall numbers assuming he is healthy. He looks great in the spring, though he's currently battling a minor calf injury, though it shouldn't keep him out for long. Draft him as an SP2, but anything more than 160 innings is gravy.
|
|
119.
Josh Bell
1B,DH
Bell looked like a superstar in the making in the first half of 2019, but struggled for much of the second half of the season and then fell off a cliff in 2020. He slashed a mere .226/.305/.364 and hit only eight home runs. His strikeout and ground ball rates took massive jumps, while his walk rate and launch angle plummeted. Bell blamed his struggles on his swing getting long, and you could tell by how often he changed his stance and swing last year that he simply could not figure things out. Now with the Nationals, the 29-year-old Bell will have a chance to revive his career. We've seen the upside, so he's certainly worth drafting at a discount, but he's much more of a borderline corner infielder than a starting-caliber first baseman.
|
|
129.
Patrick Corbin
SP
Corbin had a disastrous 2020 season, during which he went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. His strikeout rate plummeted, and his velocity dropped significantly, with his fastball seeing a dip of almost two miles per hour. Corbin leans heavily into his slider, and he needs it to be pristine to be an effective pitcher. And although it wasn't a terrible pitch in 2020, the swinging strike rate on it dropped from 28.1% to 21.2%, and the whiff rate from 52% to just 38.2%. If the loss in velocity and effectiveness of his slider were entirely due to the oddities of the shortened season, then Corbin is going to be a major value in drafts this year. But if not, then his days as a "set it and forget it" starter are likely over. Monitor Corbin's performance this spring, particularly with his velocity. If it's back up to prior levels, then push him up your board significantly.
|
|
134.
Victor Robles
CF
There were plenty of warning signs with Robles' batted-ball data heading into 2020, and they're only greater now after an abysmal season during which he slashed .220/.293/.315. The MLB average in barrel rate and average exit velocity are 6.4% and 88.3 MPH, respectively. Robles clocked in at 4.8% and 83.3 MPH in 2019, and then fell to a ridiculous 1.7% and 82.2 MPH in 2020. His continously poor contact limits any upside, but it's worth noting that he still hit 17 homers and stole 28 bases in 2019 despite it all. Robles is still just entering his age-24 season, so massive long-term growth is still certainly on the table. But for now, it's impossible to justify drafting him as anything more than a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.
|
|
304.
Cesar Hernandez
2B
|
|
371.
Tanner Rainey
RP
|
|
490.
Will Harris
RP
|
|
511.
Luis Garcia
2B
|
|
596.
Carter Kieboom
3B
|
|
615.
Lane Thomas
RF,LF,CF
|
|
653.
Kyle Finnegan
RP
|
|
728.
Andrew Stevenson
LF,RF,CF
|
|
762.
Austin Voth
SP,RP
|
|
790.
Josiah Gray
SP
|
|
894.
Erick Fedde
SP
|
|
955.
Joe Ross
RP,SP
|
|
997.
Jefry Rodriguez
SP,RP
|
|
1039.
Keibert Ruiz
C
|
|
1052.
Welington Castillo
C
|
|
1060.
Yadiel Hernandez
DH,RF,LF
|
|
1079.
Patrick Murphy
RP
|
|
1158.
Luis Avilan
RP
|
|
1172.
Victor Arano
RP
|
|
1271.
Lucius Fox
SS
|
|
1316.
Seth Romero
RP
|
|
1330.
Sam Clay
RP
|
|
1357.
Paolo Espino
SP,RP
|
|
1384.
Ben Braymer
SP
|
|
1411.
Tres Barrera
C
|
|
1483.
Jake Noll
1B
|
