Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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12.
Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw turned back the clock a bit in 2020, as the shortened season allowed him to let things go a bit more and add some of the velocity he had lost over the previous two seasons. The result was his best WHIP and ERA since 2016 and best strikeout rate since 2017. Kershaw isn't going to reach 200 innings pitched at this stage of his career, not with his injury history and the Dodgers' depth in their rotation and World Series aspirations. But even entering his age-33 season, he offers next to no downside. Consider this: Kershaw had probably the worst season of his career in 2019 and pitched to a 3.03 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning. Draft him as a strong SP2 but bank on 160 innings. Anything more is gravy.
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26.
Zack Greinke
Greinke is entering his age-37 season, but still somehow keeps getting it done. His ERA of 4.03 last year was certainly higher than fantasy managers are used to seeing, but it came with a 2.80 FIP and 3.51 xFIP. His strikeout rate was his best since 2017 and his walk rate of 3.3% was the best of his entire career. But his velocity was down about two ticks, with his fastball clocking in at just 87.9 miles per hour. Greinke is as smart a pitcher as there is but it's going to be difficult to succeed over the course of a full 162-game season if his pure stuff continues to diminish. He's one of the few pitchers in the game who is probably capable of pitching 200 innings in 2021, but expect a continued downward trend in his performance.
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52.
James Paxton
Paxton missed almost the entire 2020 season after straining a flexor in his pitching forearm. Any forearm injury is worrisome because of the connection to the elbow, and Paxton has hardly been the picture of health in his career. He'll try to jumpstart his career again back with the Mariners, and the reports from his workout, where he reportedly touched 94 MPH, were encouraging after his velocity drop last year. When he pitches, he's almost always effective, so he's worth a late-round pick for the potential upside. But the injury history should keep him relatively low on your draft board.
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66.
Michael Pineda
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76.
Drew Smyly
If you're willing to buy into Smyly's 2020 season, then he's likely to come at a major discount in drafts. He added more than two miles per hour to his fastball, struck out 37.8% of the batters he faced, and leaned more into his excellent curveball. There's reason for optimism after the Braves offered him a substantial one-year deal. Of course, Smyly's real issue is his health, as he missed two full seasons because of Tommy John surgery and even last year was limited to 26 1/3 innings. But there's reason to believe his gains last year are sustainable, so taking him late in your drafts, is worth the gamble.
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78.
Yusei Kikuchi
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79.
Matthew Boyd
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81.
Zach Davies
Davies has quietly put together two quality seasons, with a 3.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2019, and a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year. Notably, he started throwing more changeups in 2020, which led both to an increased swinging strike rate and strikeout rate. But his xERA was still 5.01, and although he routinely outperforms his expected stats, it's a reminder not to get too high on a pitcher who amounts to a command specialist. The upside is that after a trade to the Cubs, he'll face mostly weak offenses, which should help to boost his floor a bit.
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99.
Kwang Hyun Kim
If you want upside with a late-round pitcher, you're looking in the wrong place with Kim. Although he put up a 1.62 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year, his xFIP and SIERA were each about three runs higher than his ERA. He also struck out just 5.54 batters per nine innings, and never showed much strikeout potential in the KBO. That said, for a pitcher who is basically free in drafts, he offers some decent stability, and is worth taking late if you have an otherwise strong staff, particularly with strikeouts. Back tightness may put him on the IL to start the year, but there does not appear to be any long-term concerns.
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110.
J.A. Happ
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115.
Carlos Martinez
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125.
Garrett Richards
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128.
Carlos Rodon
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130.
Danny Duffy
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139.
Matt Shoemaker
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141.
Johnny Cueto
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143.
Mike Foltynewicz
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148.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
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158.
Masahiro Tanaka
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165.
Matt Strahm
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166.
Matt Moore
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168.
Jon Lester
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171.
Vince Velasquez
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173.
Collin McHugh
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175.
Jakob Junis
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177.
John Curtiss
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180.
Julio Teheran
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182.
Chad Kuhl
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183.
Tyler Clippard
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186.
Tyler Chatwood
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187.
Jake Arrieta
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188.
Cole Hamels
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189.
Felix Pena
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191.
Cam Bedrosian
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192.
Josh Tomlin
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193.
Tanner Roark
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195.
Jimmy Nelson
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199.
Mike Fiers
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203.
Brett Anderson
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205.
Tyler Anderson
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211.
Rick Porcello
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214.
Martin Perez
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218.
Zack Godley
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220.
Anthony Reyes
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226.
Derek Holland
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228.
Daniel Norris
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231.
Jose Urena
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235.
Colten Brewer
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241.
Aaron Sanchez
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243.
Homer Bailey
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247.
Jordan Lyles
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249.
Adam Plutko
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253.
Ivan Nova
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260.
Brandon Finnegan
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263.
Jeff Samardzija
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264.
Ross Detwiler
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269.
Jon Duplantier
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271.
Joe Palumbo
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274.
Chi Chi Gonzalez
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279.
James Marvel
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281.
Luke Bard
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282.
Hyeon-jong Yang
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283.
James Shields
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284.
Sam McWilliams
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286.
Rogelio Armenteros
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287.
Jason Vargas
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288.
Trevor Cahill
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290.
Andrew Cashner
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304.
Clayton Richard
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306.
Jasseel De La Cruz
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307.
Ariel Jurado
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310.
Bartolo Colon
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320.
Ryan Weber
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331.
Mike Leake
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332.
Brad Peacock
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333.
Daniel Gossett
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335.
Cody Ponce
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337.
Chris Mazza
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345.
Dario Agrazal
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351.
Felix Hernandez
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352.
Tommy Milone
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354.
Shelby Miller
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357.
Edwin Jackson
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359.
Anibal Sanchez
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368.
Glenn Sparkman
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370.
Jordan Zimmermann
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372.
Wade LeBlanc
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374.
Chase De Jong
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378.
Conner Greene
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383.
Dakota Chalmers
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386.
Asher Wojciechowski
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389.
Gray Fenter
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393.
Matt Harvey
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396.
Ervin Santana
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397.
Tony Cingrani
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400.
Andrew Triggs
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402.
Steven Fuentes
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403.
Corey Oswalt
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404.
Francis Martes
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405.
Jesse Chavez
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406.
Derek Law
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408.
Neftali Feliz
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409.
Gabriel Ynoa
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413.
Braden Shipley
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414.
Wily Peralta
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415.
Jason Hammel
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416.
Edinson Volquez
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419.
Mike Kickham
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420.
Francisco Liriano
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421.
Jacob Waguespack
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422.
Jake Faria
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430.
Thomas Eshelman
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432.
Steven Wright
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435.
Dereck Rodriguez
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436.
Phil Pfeifer
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441.
CC Sabathia
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442.
Artie Lewicki
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