Trea Turner cashed in on his elite speed/power combination and signed an 11-year, $300 million contract to join the reigning National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies. The 29-year-old scored 101 runs and tallied 100 RBI, often batting behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in L.A. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect a repeat RBI performance, given that he is almost assuredly going to bat leadoff in Philly, but repeating a 20 HR/100 R season is likely as Citizens Bank plays well to right-handed power. Where Turner catapults to No. 1 is the addition of stolen bases. He had 27 of them in 2022, but if the new baserunning rules indeed make it easier to run, his elite 24.7 ft/sec sprint speed could see him flirt with 40 in 2023. Philly has no problem letting their guys run (ranked seventh in SB attempts), and they're not going to lock up their new toy on arrival. Draft him and enjoy.

A lot of 2023 draft boards will have Aaron Judge at the top of them, and there is no doubt he belongs there after his record-setting 2022. He famously broke the A.L. Home Run record with 62, scoring 133 runs, driving in 131, and stealing 16 bases to boot. His slash line was an other-worldly .311/.425/.686 with an xwOBA of .463 and wRC+ of 207. The reason he may fall out of the 1.1 slot on draft day is simply fantasy managers anticipating the regression that is likely to come. Steamer projections have him at 43/109/104 for the upcoming season, and his ratios should see a small decline as well. Other concerns include the fact that Judge will be 31 years old for the majority of the season and played in a career-high 157 games last year. What is not of concern are the 81 games he gets to play at Yankee Stadium this year and each one after until 2031, thanks to his 9-year, $360 million free-agent contract. Judge is the guy if fantasy managers want to shore up their slugging early. Just beware that his numbers might look much closer to 2021 than 2022.

Ronald Acuna Jr. appeared in 119 games last year, a significantly higher number than the original projection of a July return from his torn ACL injury. Indeed, the 25-year-old came back in late April, immediately began stealing bases, and rewarded fantasy managers who used a high draft pick on him. While his slugging percentage was down significantly, a lot of that can be attributed to working back from the injury. His EV and HardHit% certainly showed no signs of slowing down, and he remains an on-base machine batting at the top of a fearsome lineup. Acuna should return to his former self with the extra time post-surgery. Fantasy managers can draft him with confidence.

Jose Ramirez remains criminally underrated, considering his productivity remains fantasy relevant across categories. Building on his outstanding 2021 season, he was one home run away from his third career 30/20 season (29/20). The list of third basemen capable of that feat stands at one unless Bobby Witt has 3B eligibility in your league. Ramirez ended up with 90 runs, 126 RBI, and slashed .280/.355/.514 while surrounded in the lineup by some young, inexperienced players who matured as the season progressed. The only statistical knock on the 30-year-old has been two straight years of decreasing wOBA, but that's splitting hairs with it sitting in the .360 range even after the "decline." Ramirez did have UCL repair in November, but there is no doubt he will be ready to go for Spring Training. While you shouldn't overlook him, you can certainly hope your league mates do.

Julio Rodriguez led the 2022 youth movement throughout MLB, skipping Triple-A to win Rookie of the Year with 29 of 30 first-place votes and electrifying the crowd at the HR Derby in July. He contributed across all batting categories, slugging 28 HR with 75 RBI, 84 runs, and 25 stolen bases. His slash line was impressive at .284/.345/.509 with a wOBA of .366. He missed time in the middle of the season with a finger injury he incurred while stealing a base, or he would have probably joined the 30/30 Club. His K% (25.9) and BB% (7.1) need improvement, but at age 22, he has plenty of time to work on these numbers. Fantasy managers can deal with those considering he is above the 90th percentile in Avg EV, Max EV, HardHit%, barrel%, outs above avg, and sprint speed. Making a case for him to go 1.1 in 2023 drafts isn't difficult.

The "Free Kyle Tucker" movement didn't garner the momentum fantasy managers were hoping for as he continued to bat in the sixth spot way too often. However, the 25-year-old smashed 30 HR with 107 RBI, 71 runs, and 25 stolen bases in 2022 en route to another World Series win for the Astros. His ratios were down across the board, but he improved his K% and BB% and suffered from some bad luck with BABIP. These should correct to be nearer to his baseline, in which case fantasy managers are drafting a 30/20 guy with high on-base skills who bats smack in the middle of what is, essentially, an All-Star team. In traditional 5x5 leagues, he can anchor any fantasy outfield you put him in.

Some players have power, whereas Yordan Alvarez has POWER. The 25-year-old ranks in the 100th percentile in average EV, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel% while coming in the 99th percentile in MaxEV. He has power to all fields, bats in the middle of a World Champion lineup, and will protect your ratios in traditional 5x5 leagues and those with advanced categories. Really, unless you are playing in a stolen base premium league, Alvarez offers little downside heading into 2023. (Those downsides are only injury concerns (he played in 135 games last year), and his outfield eligibility will probably expire after this season.) The four-category stud is worth a first-round pick.

Heading into the season, Juan Soto is the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, which feels ridiculous to say about a guy who still ended with a WAR of 5.2. The first half of 2022 found him in a terrible lineup, so opposing pitchers walked him 95 times in 436 plate appearances. Reports also surfaced that he had turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from Washington, and soon, the HR Derby winner headed to San Diego with expectations as big as the contract he turned down. He struggled with the Padres, slashing .236/.388/.390 with only six homers and 16 RBI in 52 games, but he also took a trip to the NLCS. Fantasy managers can expect a course correction in 2023, somewhere in the vicinity of 30+ HR, 110+ RBI, and an elite .400+ OBP. With the addition of Xander Bogaerts, the return of Fernando Tatis, Jr., and the presence of Manny Machado, this is a real-life team you want multiple pieces of in fantasy. Soto is worth every penny of a top draft pick.

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., took a step back in 2022, which was expected once he got out of the bandbox parks of Dunedin and Buffalo. He continued to smash the ball, sitting in the 90th percentile in avgEV, MaxEV, and HardHit%. It is somewhat concerning that his K% went up while his BB% went down, but the slight drop in counting stats is projected to normalize back to his 35/100/100 levels. While the fifth-year player probably isn't going to gift fantasy managers with double-digit steals, Guerrero can keep four categories and all ratios afloat, allowing you to build around that foundation. Be prepared to grab him on the turn at the end of Round 1.

As Mookie Betts enters his age-30 season, there is some expected decline in a few areas (fly ball rate increased but led to a lower ground ball EV/BABIP). Still, his elite on-base skills continue to increase his value in fantasy leagues, especially considering that he bats leadoff in one of the most explosive lineups in baseball. He played in 142 games in 2022, batting first in the lineup in all of them. It is difficult to predict what effect the new running rules will have on his SB total, but fantasy managers can safely count on 10-15 in this area. However, his 30+ HR, 100+ runs, and solid advanced metrics will contribute across the board, and he is worthy of a late first-round pick. The fact that Dave Roberts might deploy him enough at 2B to give him that eligibility is just icing.

This is your annual reminder to ensure you know how Shohei Ohtani's pitcher/hitter eligibility is treated in your league(s), as it can make a world of difference in fantasy value. What it will not make a difference in, however, is his incredible talent on the field. His fifth season in MLB saw a slight decline in hitting stats (34 HR, 95 RBI, .273/.356/.519) (and yes, that was a decline). However, he threw 166 innings, struck out 219 batters, and maintained a 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP to finish fourth in Cy Young voting. The Angels have stated they plan to pitch Ohtani every sixth day as regularly as possible, meaning he could conceivably get 28-30 starts in addition to 600 plate appearances. On top of all of that, he is in his walk year and will be auditioning for what will surely be a huge contract. Yes, he clogs your Utility spot, and it can be frustrating to manage him in weekly leagues where he can only start as one or the other. But if you play on a platform where he is counted as both at all times, he is the fantasy 1.1, no matter who they give the real-life MVP to.

The Brewers took the training wheels off for Corbin Burnes in 2022, allowing him to throw 202 innings after only 167 the year before. The 28-year-old didn't disappoint, striking out 243 batters while feasting on the free-swinging NL Central batters. Some fatigue appeared to set in following the All-Star Break, but overall, his numbers remained elite, with an xFIP of 2.85, a K/9 of 10.83, and a WHIP of 0.97. With no clear-cut SP1 in fantasy this season, Burnes is a solid choice, as he will buoy your pitching categories while pitching in front of a Top 10 defensive team.

After a volatile offseason that saw him sign with the Dodgers, Freddie Freeman settled in and got to work being the hitting machine fantasy managers have come to know and love. While his HR total dropped to 21, his runs (117), RBI (100), and SB (13) kept him in the fantasy MVP conversation. What we really love, though, are his ratios. He may not duplicate his .325/.407/.511 line again, his three-year average of .312/.415/.563 says that range is possible with his elite skills. Ranking in the 90th percentile in K%, BB%, and xwOBA is all you need to know to feel confident in grabbing the 33-year-old in the second round.

Mike Trout may have had the quietest 40-homer season in 2022. Whether he was lost in the Aaron Judge hoopla or continues to squander an incredible career on a terrible team (hint: it's the latter), Trout went about his business as he always has. He only played in 119 games due to a rare and persistent back injury that will require more rest days going forward, even when healthy. On the other hand, those 40 HR and .347 ISO probably won some leagues last year for patient managers who could ride out the injuries. Steamer projections have him hitting another 40 and maybe crossing the century mark on runs and RBI if anyone aside from Shohei Ohtani shows up to play in L.A. He is a top OBP guy and his ratios have one of the highest floors in baseball. The stolen bases are most likely gone forever, but he could pair nicely with a speed guy from Round 1. At the end of the day, he is still Mike Trout, for better or worse. You know what you're getting.

Gerrit Cole demonstrated some decline in 2022, allowing 1.48 HR/9 on his way to a 3.50 ERA and a career-high total in homers allowed with 33. There is your knock on the 32-year-old. The rest of his numbers remained stellar. He led the league in strikeouts with 257 of them in 200 2/3 innings, kept his WHIP at 1.02, and carried an xFIP of 2.77, meaning his ratios were slightly inflated. On top of that, the Yankees led MLB in team defensive runs saved, so anything FIP doesn't take into consideration should still be positive. Cole will typically pitch into the sixth inning, meaning he qualifies for wins and quality starts more often than not, and the Yankees should win an abundance of games in 2023. He is not the clear-cut SP1 he's been in years past, but he should still be one of the first off the board.

Manny Machado took a look at his 2021 numbers and thought they were a little low, so he decided to have one of the best years of his career in 2022, finishing second to Paul Goldschmidt for NL MVP. The two knocks on Machado are that his K% was a career-high of 20.7, and he's not getting faster as he ages, but fantasy managers aren't drafting him for his speed. He is a Top 3 third baseman, providing a bankable 30/100/100 while slashing in the .300/.360/.500 range for fantasy managers who decide to power their infield early in drafts. Additionally, the acquisition of Xander Bogaerts, a more relaxed Juan Soto, and a returning, ringworm-free Fernando Tatis Jr. surround him in the Padres lineup. Machado is a safe but exciting draft pick in the second round.

There were a lot of arguments prior to the 2022 season about whether Witt was ready for the majors full time or if he would need some seasoning. The 22-year-old responded by getting 632 plate appearances, hitting 20 HR, stealing 30 bases, and scoring 82 runs while knocking in 80. Not a bad way to introduce yourself to the neighborhood. Witt struggled to get on base, walking away with an OBP of .294 and xwOBA of .313. He also struggled defensively, which could lead to more time at third base, depending on how Kansas City wants to play him. But he will play every day, and with the new base-stealing rules boosting that category, he may run every day, too. In dynasty leagues, he is already taken; for those in redraft, he is worth a high pick.

Raise your hand if you cursed at and/or traded Bo Bichette prior to the All-Star Break last season! He ended the first half with 14 HR, five SB (out of 10 attempts), and a slash line of .259/.301/.430. He looked lost in a lineup that should have been a bastion of productivity, and fantasy managers everywhere panicked. The 24-year-old responded by slashing .329/.370/.521 with 10 HR and eight SB (out of 10 attempts). That second-half stat line was much closer to his career average, and he still bats in a high-octane lineup that should drive his counting stats back to the 25/15 range without harming your ratios. While he may not be a slam dunk high-round pick, his upside makes him worthy of his ADP.

Rafael Devers is one of the best players in baseball who seems consistently overlooked in fantasy circles. Perhaps that will change in 2023, though he will be playing in one of the least fearsome Boston lineups of his career. Gone are Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, so Devers will rely on Trevor Story, international signing Masataka Yoshida, Kike Hernandez, and others to boost his runs and RBI, which fell below 100 for the first time in 2022. As a fantasy player, Devers has all of the skills managers would ask for in a third baseman. He mashes the ball, gets on base, and is a four-category player in a friendly ballpark. He also now has the security of an 11-year, $331 million contract to stay with the only team he's been on, though whether or not that impacts his performance remains to be seen.

The Polar Bear was dethroned at the 2022 HR Derby but otherwise had a phenomenal campaign, hitting 40 HR with 131 RBI, 95 runs, and lowering his K% to a career-low 18.7. He had an impressive xwOBA of .354, an ISO of .246, and WRC+ of 143 while batting cleanup in New York. Projections for the 28-year-old look similar to this stat line, though he will have a boosted lineup ahead of him to knock in with the re-signing of Brandon Nimmo, return of Francisco Lindor, and anyone else Steve Cohen decides to add to his luxury tax mountain. The beauty of Alonso is that he has all of the power without cratering your batting average (.271 last season). He remains worthy of a second-round pick in 2023.

Paul Goldschmidt won the NL MVP in 2022, putting together a strong campaign that saw him hit 35 HR with 115 RBI and 105 runs while slashing .317/.404/.578 in his age-34 season. Strangely, all of his underlying metrics were actually worse in 2022 than in 2021 with the exception of his BB% bouncing from 9.9 to 12.1. One striking reason for this was a .368 BABIP, while another was facing a lot of atrocious pitching in the NL Central. His Statcast page reads like a warning when comparing his expected numbers with his actual ones. All of this adds up to that Goldy is due for some regression in 2023, which could be dramatic. The positives are his solid floor, and a good surrounding lineup will keep the numbers afloat. Just make sure you're not paying for his MVP iteration on draft day.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the glow-in-the-dark, neon-colored wild card sitting in every fantasy baseball draft of 2023. Tatis missed the entire 2022 season with injuries and a PED suspension in August. The injuries have been addressed: He surgically repaired his torn labrum shortly after his suspension for a nagging shoulder issue that plagued him, and he had surgery on his left wrist in October. The suspension will end on April 20, so fantasy managers don't have to take a long absence into account. It's just every other part of the picture that muddies the water. Tatis's raw skills are phenomenal; he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the game, runs extremely well, and gets on base. He will be surrounded by superstar talent in the San Diego lineup, and he will have SS and OF eligibility in 2023, but he probably won't be playing the demanding infield position. If someone could guarantee that 2021 Tatis is who we're getting, he'd be a Top 5 pick, but the variables are numerous, and the impact is unknown. Someone will spend a high-round draft pick on him, so you only have to ask yourself if it will be you.

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara had Jacob deGrom on speed dial to discuss coping strategies for receiving little to no run support during a dominant pitching season. He had nine NDs, giving up an average of 1.5 earned runs while pitching more than six innings in all but one. Beyond that, Alcantara threw 228 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts, winning the NL Cy Young with all 30 first-place votes. The 27-year-old demonstrated an easy delivery, and the Marlins demonstrated comfort in letting him go deep into ballgames. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. He deserves a high draft pick - just recognize some slight regression may be on the horizon.

Austin Riley showed up on a lot of "Busts" lists heading into 2022, which caused his draft stock to fall, so the fantasy managers who took the chance were handsomely rewarded with 38 HR, 93 RBI, and 90 runs. Riley sits in the 95th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xSLG, Barrel%, avgEV, MaxEV, and xwOBA, which puts him in a tiny group of batters who can provide power numbers without destroying your ratios. He will strike out and doesn't take as many walks as he should, but the lineup around him provides plenty of protection and a fantastic ceiling for counting stats. The 25-year-old is not making it out of the second round in NFBC drafts, so chances are good his draft stock isn't going anywhere this season.

Once again, Jacob deGrom is the pitcher on the board with the wildest range of outcomes possible. If someone could guarantee his health, an argument could be made to take him in the first round. Instead, we have reality, and the reality is that deGrom started only 11 games and pitched 64 1/3 innings, both of which are lower numbers than in the truncated 2020 season. In those 64 innings, he struck out 102 batters using his elite arsenal of pitches. Batters did hit him a little harder when they did make contact, and he had a career-high 1.26 HR/9, but the rest of his Statcast profile still shines bright red. In the offseason, the Texas Rangers handed the 34-year-old a five-year, $185 million contract to anchor their staff. Globe Life Park is a better hitter's park than City Field, but when it comes to deGrom, the only factor that impacts his fantasy value is availability.

Spencer Strider arrived in MLB in 2022 and promptly helped many a fantasy manager make the playoffs. He pitched 131 2/3 innings, striking out an obscene 202 batters with a devastating slider that came after his 98 mph fastball. He struggled with free passes, issuing 3.1 walks per nine, but he more than made up for that with a 16.4% swinging strike rate and K% of 38.3. After he signed a six-year, $75 million contract, the Braves should allow him to throw more innings, probably in the 150-160 range, and he should still have RP eligibility, making him a points-league stud as well. Strider has the makings of a bona fide ace and is only 24 years old. Draft him with confidence.

Yes, that is Timmy Trumpet you're hearing as Edwin Diaz enters the chat. He may have just brought his Statcast page to contract negotiations before signing his five-year, $102 million deal to return to New York. The 28-year-old was in the 100th percentile in xBA, K%, Whiff%, xSLG, and xERA/xOBA, which is exactly what you are looking for from a fantasy closer while racking up 32 saves. His xFIP was a ridiculous 1.04, and he stranded 90.4% of runners on base. While chances are good Diaz will not repeat these numbers in 2023, there is nothing to suggest that he won't return as an elite closer option with job security on a team that should win plenty of games. He'll probably cost you a second-round pick, but there isn't much downside if you're willing to pay for saves.

Michael Harris II played 43 games in Double-A last year before getting called up to the majors and proceeded to hit 19 HR, steal 20 bases, and slash .297/.339/.514 on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year award. At the age of 21, he didn't take many walks and struggled with strikeouts, but these numbers should improve based on his profile in the minors. Harris should be a 20/20 guy for the foreseeable future, and he is surrounded in the lineup by guys who will boost his counting stats. There is a lot of value to be had here.

Jose Altuve's fantasy baseball demise has been prematurely predicted for a couple of years now. He will turn 33 in May, and we have been waiting for him to show signs of decline; instead, he just keeps on keeping on. After three years of single-digit steals, Altuve stole 18 bags while only being caught once in 2022. His BB% actually went up, and his K% stayed in the 90th percentile at 14.4. As long as he continues to bat at the top of that Houston lineup, he will score 100 runs and should smack 25+ homers. His RBI total of 57 should see a boost with improvement from the 7-8-9 hitters. Altuve somehow continues to have some upside while the most solid floor of the second basemen in fantasy drafts.

Francisco Lindor had an abysmal 2021 after signing a huge contract with the Mets, but he returned to form in 2022, tallying 26 HR, 107 RBI, 98 runs, and 16 SB. He hit .270, though his xBA was only .254. With the Mets starting lineup getting stronger by the day, Lindor should continue to see good counting stats in the 25/80/90 range, and the new stolen base rules may help him get back to 20 in that department. Lindor is the definition of a "safe" pick in a good lineup with some upside, but he won't be returning to 2017-2019 numbers anytime soon.

Aaron Nola had a wildly unlucky 2021 that most fantasy managers were aware of on draft day in 2022. The managers who took him were rewarded with more innings, strikeouts, and vastly improved ratios. Nola remains elite in BB% (3.6) and HardHit% (31.6) while allowing weak contact - which is good since his defense consisted of mostly should-be DHs. The 29-year-old picked up an extra 25 2/3 innings of postseason work, the first of his career, bringing his total innings to a career-high 230. Nola is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies, so he will have plenty of motivation to demonstrate his ability to serve as the ace of any staff.

Dylan Cease finished second to Justin Verlander for 2022 AL Cy Young and had an outstanding year for a wildly disappointing White Sox team. He threw 184 innings, going 14-8 while striking out 227 batters with an ERA of 2.20 and a WHIP of 1.11. Sounds great for a 27-year-old who could be a fantasy anchor for your pitching staff, right? Well... Underneath that sparkling 2.20 ERA was an xFIP of 3.50 and an extremely low BABIP of .260. These metrics should give you pause as you face the decision to draft him in the 2nd/3rd round of your draft. If he gets his walks and home runs under control, he could live up to that ADP, but be wary of drafting an "if" guy that high.

For most of 2022, Nolan Arenado was in the NL MVP conversation while batting directly behind the guy who eventually won it, Paul Goldschmidt. Two years into his St. Louis tenure, the 31-year-old has put to rest most fantasy manager fears about the lack of the Coors effect. The last time Arenado did not hit 30+ HR with 100+ RBI was in 2014 (ignoring the pandemic-shortened season). His BABIP was a little high (.290), which led to his .293 batting average, so fantasy managers should consider that regression and expect more in the .270 range. Aside from that, though, rostering Arenado is a calm, reliable move worth making if you took bigger risks in the early rounds or if you just want the safest option available at the hot corner.

Brandon Woodruff had a strange 2022 season. He only pitched 153 innings; he missed time due to a diagnosis of Raynaud's Syndrome, which affected the index, middle, and ring fingers on his pitching hand. He still struck out 190 batters and maintained a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but the missed time and increased average exit velocity allowed left something to be desired for fantasy managers. The 13 wins were nice, and his underlying metrics remain stellar, but he comes with a little more risk than previously.

In his fourth year in the league, Randy Arozarena hit 20 HR, knocking in 89 and scoring 72 while stealing 32 bases. The steals are why he goes so early in drafts because it is certainly not his patience at the plate. The 27-year-old struck out 156 times in 586 at-bats while drawing only 46 free passes; if you believe it, these were improved numbers from 2021. His slash line declined to .263/.327/.445, though that average is misleading as his expected was .234. When he makes contact, Arozarena's elite maxEV will allow good things to happen. Fantasy managers just need to decide if they can ride out the 0-for-4 streaks.

Two IL stints in 2022 are the only thing suppressing McClanahan's draft value in 2023. The 25-year-old pitched 166 1/3 innings, struck out 194 batters, and blessed fantasy managers with a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. His Statcast page could be the official symbol of Valentine's Day, with the only non-red stat being his fastball spin rate. Because it's the Rays, it's hard to predict how many innings or how deep into ball games they will let him go, but as long as he is healthy, he could anchor a fantasy staff coming out of the fourth or fifth round. Expect a little over 10.0 K/9, an ERA closer to 3, a microscopic WHIP from the third-year player, and the latest entry into the Tampa Bay pitching echelon.

Whether or not you draft Luis Robert depends entirely on how risk-averse you are to injuries. The 25-year-old set a new career high in 2022 in games played and still didn't crack 100, finishing at 98 with a variety of ailments and injuries derailing any sort of rhythm he could get. In three seasons, he only has 924 plate appearances, and fantasy managers have been left to wonder what it would look like if he got 600 appearances in one season. The tools are all there: Robert has good speed, reduced his strikeout rate in 2022, and his expected slash numbers will be helpful to fantasy squads. If you can stomach the idea of spending a high-round draft pick on an injury risk with a high ceiling, Robert could be a steal. Or he could clog your IL for two-thirds of the season. Up to you.

Emmanuel Clase led MLB with 42 saves last season, cementing his status as an elite closer and giving fantasy managers a reason to pay for saves in 2023. He pitched 72 2/3 innings, striking out 77, and maintaining a microscopic 1.36 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. He is in the 90th percentile and above in nine of 12 categories on Statcast, and even some slight regression in his overall numbers still leaves him in "elite" territory. Clase will turn 25 before the season and is locked into the closer role in Cleveland, making him and Edwin Diaz the clear top two at the position heading into 2023.

After signing an 8-year, $168 million contract with the Atlanta Braves, Matt Olson did his best to replace franchise icon Freddie Freeman in one of the weirder series of transactions in recent memory. The 28-year-old's numbers were lower than what fantasy managers had come to expect, losing 31 points off his batting average and dropping his OBP from .371 to .325. His K% jumped precipitously (16.8 to 24.3), while his walk rate went the other direction (13.1 to 10.7). The good news is that his expected numbers were all higher than the actuals, and he still hit 34 homers with 86 runs and 103 RBI. Olson played in all 162 games last season, continuing his career of solid durability, so fantasy managers can draft him with the expectation that his numbers will normalize in his second year in Atlanta with a good lineup around him.

Scherzer started only 23 games in 2022 due to a couple of oblique issues that kept him on the shelf for a couple of IL stints. When he did take the mound, the 38-year-old continued his march of dominance in his new digs. In 145 1/3 innings, Scherzer struck out 173 batters and maintained a 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His K% dropped from a super-elite 34.1% to a basic-elite 30.6%. While he does not have any outward signs of decline, some fantasy managers might be wary of investing a high-round pick in a guy who turns 39 in July. But assuming he returns to the 180-190 innings mark, he is well worth the investment.

Justin Verlander had Tommy John surgery in 2020 at the age of 37, missed all of 2021 at the age of 38, and won the AL Cy Young Award in 2022 at the age of 39. As a reward for that performance, he signed a two-year contract with the Mets so he and Max Scherzer can arm wrestle for who gets to call themselves the staff's ace. Including the postseason run, Verlander threw 195 innings last season, and even though he has been a workhorse for his entire career, it is fair to question how many more years he can continue to flirt with 200 innings. He struck out 210 batters with a regular-season ERA of 1.75 and a microscopic WHIP of 0.83. Aside from turning 40 in February, fantasy managers need to be wary of the BABIP of .240, which is 30 points below his career average and due to regress. He will come with a senior citizen discount in drafts, but that could be a heck of a steal if he somehow comes close to a repeat performance.

In 2022, everyone in fantasy baseball circles knew Marcus Semien would experience some serious regression in Texas after his career year in Toronto. The regression happened across the board everywhere but stolen bases, where he actually increased from 15 to 25 in 2022. The power decreased (45 HR to 26) but in exchange, his K% dropped, and he landed in the 95th percentile in outs above average. Beyond that, Semien has played in 155 games or more in six of the past seven seasons (excluding 2020). He bats at the top of an improved batting order, so 100 runs should be bankable. Semien is a great, reliable 2B option, which at this point, looks like a very shallow position heading into 2023.

Carlos Rodon celebrated turning 30 by signing a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees, and it's not hard to see why New York was willing to pay him. In 2022, Rodon threw a career-high 178 innings, struck out 237 batters, and ended with a sparkling ERA of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.03. Fantasy players need to note two important things: (1) The change from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will have some elevated effect to his ERA; and (2) Beware of drafting an oft-injured pitcher coming off a career year. Rodon is a great pitcher who will help any fantasy staff but don't overpay on draft day.

Shane Bieber traded an elite K% for an elite BB% in 2022, providing fantasy managers with a different type of ace on their pitching staff. He still struck out 198 batters in 200 innings, but his true value was in his 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His xERA was 3.51, but his xFIP was 2.98, which is encouraging for 2023. Bieber will not dazzle you with an overpowering fastball, and he occasionally gets lit up by hard contact, but his K/BB ratio of 5.50 will provide a great floor to rely on.

Cedric Mullins stole 3o+ bases for the second consecutive year in 2022, though the power disintegrated, lowering his home total to 16 from 30. It's understandable that fantasy managers who drafted him thinking they secured a 30/30 guy were disappointed at the end of the season. The Orioles seem dedicated to giving their prospects every opportunity to succeed, which boosts Mullins's value in the runs category. But at the end of the day, fantasy managers are drafting him for his elite speed and ability to steal bases, a skill that may get even better depending on how the new baserunning rules play out.

Josh Hader may come at a discount in 2023 due to those who fixate on a stretch of outings in August 2022 or look only at his final ERA. The surface stats are much uglier than fantasy managers have been used to seeing. The 28-year-old ended with a 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, both of which are career highs by a longshot. Looking beneath that, however, shows that his xERA was 3.51 with an xFIP of 2.94. His K% and Whiff% remain in elite status, and he still walked away with 36 saves. This is still a player with Top-3 closer abilities, so fantasy managers in leagues where others shy away due to a few outings in August should draft, sit back, and enjoy.

Zack Wheeler returned from his 2021 Cy Young runner-up campaign and defended his position as a top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. In 153 innings, the 31-year-old struck out 163 batters and ended the campaign with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The 153 innings were down from 213 1/3 in 2021, but this is actually encouraging in that the Phillies were cognizant of his usage. Wheeler will take the ball every fifth day and deliver a strikeout per inning, solid ratios, and should be a good source of wins for the defending National League Champions and your fantasy squad.

Kyle Schwarber strikes out at such a large clip (29.9 K%) that it is easy to miss his dominance in other fantasy categories. In his age-29 season, he played 155 games, led the NL in home runs with 46, scored 100 runs, drove in 94, and stole 10 bases. His OBP was the second-lowest of his career at .323, but his xwOBA was .375, so hopefully, some improvement is in the cards for 2023. Schwarber batted leadoff for the vast majority of the season, but the acquisition of Trea Turner will most likely move him down in the order. It's possible they leave him in the 2-slot, especially until Bryce Harper returns, in which case he will continue to score runs and increase his RBI total. The Phillies will score in bunches, and Schwarber may have multi-position eligibility, depending on your league, which is not a bad fantasy asset to have at all as long as you can absorb the batting average.

Corey Seager can hit. While most analysts thought there might be some regression after he signed his 10-year contract with Texas, Seager proved those fears unnecessary. He crushed a career-high 33 home runs while scoring 91 runs and driving in 83. One area that did prove disappointing was his .245 batting average, but this is misleading due to his extremely low .242 BABIP. While his OBP sat at .317, his xwOBA was .372, meaning that he should see a positive correction to this in 2023. The shortstop position feels deeper than in years past, but heading into his age-29 season, Seager remains at or near the top. Fantasy managers should hope he drops to the sixth or seventh round to maximize his value.

Julio Urias ended the 2022 season with a shiny 2.16 ERA, but this belies some concerning underlying numbers that pushed his xFIP to 3.81. The 26-year-old benefited from an excellent defense and an unsustainable .229 BABIP, while his HR/9 went up to 1.2. Those are the negatives. On the positive side, his spin rates are still above the 90th percentile, and he threw 175 innings, taking the ball every fifth day like clockwork. For 5x5 leagues, Urias finished third in the majors with 17 wins last year, and while it's not great to chase that category, he seems a safe bet to do well in it. Draft him expecting some regression, but he is still a very good pitcher on a behemoth of a team with a great defense.

Ozzie Albies played in only 64 games in 2022, losing time to a broken foot and then a broken pinkie finger. There is nothing to garner from his numbers due to the small sample size, though his injuries should be behind him heading into Spring Training. If we look at his three-year trends from the last three full seasons he played, the 25-year-old projects to be in the 20/15 range for HR and SB. His true asset, though, is his ability to score runs in a potent lineup. He will probably strike out more than we'd like and not take enough walks, but if the speed and power come back to near normal, he's one of the top second basemen on the board in a very shallow position pool.

Jazz Chisholm gave fantasy managers a 60-game taste of his true potential in 2022 before being shelved with back and knee injuries. His numbers were greatly improved from 2021 - he took more walks and struck out less while hitting 14 homers and stealing 12 bags in the limited time frame. Chisholm should enter his age-25 season healthy, though he will probably lose SS eligibility in most formats. However, he still offers clear 20-20 potential at the shallower 2B position with the hope he will continue where he left off in 2022.

Some fantasy managers refuse to "pay" for catchers in a similar way to how some refuse to "pay" for saves, but J.T. Realmuto is the one catcher worth the price on draft day. The 31-year-old smacked 22 home runs and stole 21 bases while slashing .276/.342/.478 for the National League Champions. His oWAR of 5.4 was eighth in the NL overall and first for catchers by a wide range, and he is in the 86th percentile in sprint speed among ALL players. The best part is that none of these numbers are outliers with expected regression. He has never played fewer than 125 games in a full season, including the six years before the arrival of the NL DH, where he got some extra at-bats on days off. He should give fantasy teams consistent production from a position where that is almost impossible to find.

Jordan Romano saved 36 games for the Blue Jays in 2022, and he is the clear-cut closer going into 2023. The two knocks against him are that he walks more batters than he should, and his xERA and xFIP were an entire run above the actuals. All the same, Romano struck out 73 batters in 64 innings while maintaining a 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The 29-year-old does not fit the profile of a truly elite closer, but he should collect another 30 saves, securing a good base in 5x5 leagues.

Kevin Gausman is an interesting case study of how surface and underlying stats can do weird things. In 2021, he had a 2.81 ERA but a 3.28 xFIP; in 2022, it was a 3.35 ERA and 2.75 xFIP. The difference lay entirely in his BABIP, which did its expected jump from an impossible .274 to an outrageous .363. Gausman throws his split-finger fastball almost 35% of the time, which is his best pitch but also the one that can lead to this type of BABIP jump. All of that is to say that the 31-year-old cannot be counted on for exceptional, ace-like numbers. Still, he will be a solid SP2 in any fantasy team rotation, giving you strikeouts and protecting your ratios, but the variance will always play into his overall numbers.

If strikeouts count against you in your league, then you might want to stay clear of Adolis Garcia. He is near the bottom of the league in K%, Whiff%, BB%, and chase rate. Before last season, the fantasy community almost unanimously labeled him a second-year bust, but the 29-year-old responded by improving his slash line across the board. His homers fell from 31 to 27 as a result, but he increased his runs and RBI by 11 each, and he stole 25 bases to boot. He hits in the middle of the order behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Nathaniel Lowe, all of whom like to get on base. In traditional 5x5 leagues, Garcia can provide value from the fifth round on.

Luis Castillo got traded to the Mariners at the deadline last season, moving from the band box that is Great American Ballpark to T-Mobile Park and helping Seattle make the playoffs for the first time since 2001. The 30-year-old pitched 150 innings after beginning the season on the shelf, and his numbers were markedly improved from his 2021 campaign. He struck out 167 batters on his way to a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. With Castillo, the concern is often that he starts slow, but Seattle may be a perfect location for him to settle in more quickly, as home games in April and May will have a roof option. He would make for a good SP2 on regular 5x5 fantasy teams.

George Springer continues to appear on the What Could Be All-Star Team after playing 133 games in 2022 while dealing with elbow and knee injuries that left him with many "DTD" tags. When healthy, he was productive atop the Toronto lineup, smacking 25 HR, scoring 89 runs, driving in 76, and even stole 14 bases for good measure. He hits the ball with great power, ranking in the 92nd percentile in maxEV. The talent is enormous but now, at age 33, the injury concerns continue to grow as well. Someone in your league will reach for him during the draft. Let them.

Starling Marte had a good 2022 season, but injuries prevented him from being a truly great fantasy asset. In 118 games, he slashed .292/.347/.468, buoying the ratios for fantasy managers in roto leagues. He hit 16 homers, his most since 2019, but he only stole 18 bases, a severe drop off from the 47 he snagged the year before. He is in the top 10 percent in maxEV and xBA, and the new SB rules could benefit someone with his speed. Just beware you'll probably get closer to 500 plate appearances than the preferred 600 with his injury history.

Alex Bregman started 2022 off slowly, but his bat came alive in the second half of the season. He hit 23 homers with 93 RBI and 93 runs scored while batting smack in the middle of one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. His BABIP was slightly lower than his career average, meaning fantasy managers could see a small bump in batting average. Sure, he doesn't run anymore, but if you need to shore up your runs and RBI category, you can't really beat the guy in the on deck circle after Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Yordan Alvarez get on base. If you wait on third base, Bregman should be your target.

Devin Williams played second fiddle to Josh Hader for most of four seasons before finally getting handed the ball after Milwaukee traded the latter to San Diego. Out of 14 Statcast pitching categories, the 28-year-old ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in nine of them. His weakness - BB% - is the thing that keeps him in Tier 2 of closers for most fantasy analysts, but his talent and abilities cannot be ignored during drafts. Milwaukee is a pitching-heavy team that will offer plenty of save opportunities. Right now, Williams is the clear choice to get the first crack at them and rack up strikeouts for your team while doing so.

The Blue Jays took the training wheels off Alek Manoah, and he responded with 196 2/3 innings of ace-level pitching. His K/9 rate dipped to 8.24, but his BB/9 improved from 3.22 to 2.33. The concern is that his 2.24 ERA was well below his xERA of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.97. Manoah collected 16 wins and, while we can't predict those very well, he did pitch over 6 innings on average, making him a solid pick in QS leagues as well. He is still only 25 years old and should be a durable righty on fantasy staffs in 2023.

In 2022, Max Fried demonstrated that pristine control and location can still be effective in today's Triple-Digit SP Society. In 185 innings pitched, he struck out 170 batters while walking only 32. He limits hard contact and uses a four-pitch combination to sit in the 91st percentile of chase rate. The 29-year-old will give fantasy managers six innings in most games, and he will anchor your SP ratios to sit in the 2.70/1.05 range. He might be the best SP2 on the board and available in the sixth round in most drafts.

The Blue Jays traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners this offseason, which should be a similar situation to the one he just left regarding young talent. The 30-year-old slashed .267/.316/.491 with 25 HR, 77 RBI, and 71 runs scored. He stole six bases in nine attempts, but his numbers declined from his best year in 2021. Fantasy managers can count on significant strikeouts and not many walks, but he is at or above the 90th percentile in five power-hitting categories that can be a salve for those burns. He should rack up the RBIs batting in the middle of that order, and he may creep back toward the 30-HR mark as well.

Yu Darvish is an often-overlooked starter in fantasy drafts, be it his age or his past inflated ERA that drive people away. His 2022 numbers, however, rewarded whoever took him two rounds too late, finishing 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. Nothing in his underlying metrics looks like a giant red flag going into his walk year with San Diego. His value is great in the sixth or seventh round, and even though we don't chase wins, he plays for a team who should put him in line for many of them. He turns 37 in August, but he could be a sneaky great pick on draft day.

Cristian Javier began 2022 in the bullpen and then started 25 games, bringing joy to fantasy managers' hearts everywhere. The 25-year-old tossed a 94-mph fastball with a 77-mph curve and mixed in a slider and changeup to create an 11.74 K/9. He struck out 194 batters in 148 2/3 innings and held a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His BABIP and LOB% are both due for regression, and his xFIP was 3.53, so it's important to temper expectations in those departments. All in all, Javier will make a great SP3 with SP2 upside.

There is hope that the White Sox have realized that Eloy Jimenez is a designated hitter and will deploy him as such in an effort to keep the 26-year-old healthy. He played in 84 games last season, slashing .295/.358/.500 with 16 HR, 54 RBI, and 40 runs. Fantasy managers dream each spring of a full season of this production, and if he manages to get to 500 plate appearances, he could be a steal at his current ADP of 78. But it is best to exercise some caution and ensure you have outfield depth if you plan to roster him.

If spin rate is your jam, you'll love what Ryan Pressly has to offer. The 34-year-old closer for the World Series Champions is in the 97th percentile in fastball spin and the 100th percentile in curveball spin. He used a four-pitch arsenal to get 33 saves with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He is not as highly sought after as the overpowering, high-strikeout guys above him, but he will provide everything fantasy managers need in a closer and then some.

Injury-averse fantasy managers missed out on Zac Gallen's first healthy season in 2022, which saw him start 31 games and throw 184 innings. He struck out 192 batters on his way to a 2.54 ERA and sparkling 0.91 WHIP. The 27-year-old throws his fastball almost half the time but finishes hitters off with his curveball and changeup equally. He limits hard contact, and his 4.09 K/BB ratio is in the upper echelon of the majors. Arizona is on the upswing, but the Diamondbacks are often forgotten about on draft day. A healthy Gallen is a steal at his ADP of 74.

Xander Bogaerts signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres in the offseason, joining what should be a top-10 offense in all of baseball. The 30-year-old comes with some red flags for 2023, however. He slashed .307/.377/.456, but his expected numbers suggest his stat line should have been closer to .259/.363/.383. His BABIP was an unsustainable .362, and his barrel%, exit velocity, sweet spot%, and walk rate all declined from 2021. Bogaerts will be a solid, but not elite, producer in a lineup with Juan Soto and Manny Machado. Be prepared for a letdown if you reach too high for him.

Dansby Swanson will enter his age-29 season with a freshly signed 7-year, $177 million with the Chicago Cubs. He played in all 162 games in 2022, swatting 25 HR with 96 RBI, 99 runs, and 18 stolen bases. The park switch to Wrigley Field could add one or two homers, but he may benefit from the new rules regarding swiping bags. Even with the big contract, Swanson has proven that his durability is consistent, and he should bat at the top of the order, both of which make him a valuable fantasy asset.

Tim Anderson played in only 79 games in 2022, just another lost piece in an overall lost White Sox season. The issue for fantasy managers is that he hasn't been durable, crossing the 150-game mark only once in his entire career. Anderson hits for a high average and doesn't strike out much, which puts him on base and with great baserunning instinct (81% career success rate). Anderson and Xander Bogaerts are being drafted very closely together in NFBC drafts and appropriately so. If Chicago can become what everyone thought it might be last year, Tim Anderson will be a huge reason why. Just make sure to draft a durable second option later.

Framber Valdez became Mr. Quality Start in 2022, tossing 201 1/3 innings in 31 starts for the World Champions. Houston allowed the 29-year-old to go deep into games, and with the departure of Justin Verlander, he slots in as their No. 1 starter. Valdez has more value in fantasy leagues where quality starts are a category because his pitching repertoire lends itself to more groundouts than strikeouts. He is no slouch, though, and will serve as a great SP2 on fantasy rosters.

Joe Musgrove has been a picture of pitching consistency over the past two seasons, with his stats almost eerily similar. His strikeouts were down, but so were his walks and ERA. He had identical WHIPs of 1.08 and has started more than 30 games in four of the past five seasons (excluding 2020). Drafting the 30-year-old is a smart idea if you pick an SP1 with more upside (and more risk) because you know what you're going to get. With a stacked Padres lineup and a propensity to collect quality starts, Musgrove checks all the boxes for one of the highest floors in the 2023 SP pool.

Daulton Vasho has catcher eligibility, which is one of the primary draws to him being drafted in the 40-50 range. The other draws include his 27 homers and 16 stolen bases, something only J.T. Realmuto can top at the position. The Diamondbacks traded Varsho to the Blue Jays in the offseason; Rogers Centre should support another 25-HR, 15-SB season and he could see a bump in runs and RBI with the better lineup around him. This will probably be the 26-year-old's last season with catcher eligibility, but in non-keeper leagues, he is a good asset.

If anyone needs a change of scenery in order to maximize his talent, Bryan Reynolds is that guy. Pittsburgh has a good long history of trading great players once they reach arbitration, so chances are that he will don a different uniform come Opening Day. We can't blame the Pirates for Reynolds's increased K% (23.0) and decreased BB% (9.1%), but we certainly can put the onus on them for his putrid runs and RBI numbers. Reynolds hit 27 HR and slashed .262/.345/.461 and yet scored 74 runs and knocked in only 62. The 28-year-old is too talented to leave on the board, so fantasy managers can draft him and send a quick wish into the universe that he plays basically anywhere else in 2023.

Ryan Helsley used a devastating three-pitch combo to emerge as one of the top closers in baseball in the latter half of 2022. He added velocity to his fastball, resulting in a K/9 that jumped from 8.94 to 13.08 and grabbing 19 saves for the Red Birds. He should enter 2023 as the clear-cut closer in St. Louis, and if he continues to throw in the triple digits as often as he did last year, he can shore up your saves category while helping your ratios and strikeouts. He should easily be in the top 10 relief pitchers taken on draft day.

Tommy Edman's fantasy value ebbs and flows with where he bats in the Cardinals' order. The switch hitter did everything better when St. Louis put him in the leadoff slot, which led to an overall .265/.324/.400 slash line. His primary category contributions are runs (95) and stolen bases (32). He doesn't take a ton of walks but doesn't strike out much, either. If he indeed gets to bat in front of the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, he will be worth a higher pick and should benefit from the new SB rules.

Everyone saw Salvador Perez's regression coming following his career year in 2021. The question was only how far the fall would be. In 2022, he appeared in only 114 games, a far cry from the 161 the year before. Injuries plagued him and led to UCL surgery in his left thumb in the first half of the season. Even with that, the 33-year-old hit 23 home runs with 76 RBI and 48 runs scored. The catcher position is notoriously shallow so drafting a guy capable of hitting 30+ homers still ranks as a solid move. He will also presumably get more time at DH with M.J. Melendez on the roster.

Raisel Iglesias signed a four-year deal with the Angels to be their closer before the 2022 season and found himself collecting holds out of the Braves bullpen in August. The 33-year-old still has a K% in the 92nd percentile in the league, though this did drop from 37.7% to 31.7% last year. Atlanta has a number of closer options, though Iglesias is the most experienced of the bunch and should get the first crack at it. He's a Tier 3 closer with a higher upside if he lands the job.

Will Smith is the catcher you draft when you want productivity from the position but don't want to pay J.T. Realmuto's price. He bats in the middle of a stacked Dodgers lineup, driving in 87 runs and swatting 24 home runs. He is a solid producer who doesn't strike out a ton and makes good contact when he swings. Dave Roberts used him strategically as a DH, which gave the 27-year-old 578 plate appearances without him wearing down like catchers often do. Expect more of the same in 2023.

Oneil Cruz headed to Triple-A following Spring Training because while the Pirates predictably floundered around the first one-third of the season. When Cruz did make it to Steel City, he struggled with strikeouts, sitting in the first percentile in K% at 34.9%. He countered that by being in the 100th percentile in maxEV when he made contact. Over the last month of the season, he showed some patience and ability to get on base, which allowed him to get 15 SB to go along with his 17 HR. A full season from Cruz has sky-high potential, but he still plays in Pittsburgh with little in the way of talent around him, especially if Bryan Reynolds leaves by trade.

Felix Bautista is a hard-throwing righty who arrived in Baltimore and immediately became a high-impact reliever. He struck out 88 batters in 65 2/3 innings while maintaining a 2.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He collected 14 holds before the Orioles traded Jorge Lopez at the deadline, after which he notched 15 saves. As long as the 27-year-old continues to rein in the free passes, the saves should be plentiful and competition for the role won't be. Bautista is a Tier 2 closer worth targeting in drafts.

Adley Rutschman saw three minor league levels before making his MLB debut on May 21 and subsequently played 113 games for Baltimore. The 24-year-old demonstrated patience at the plate with a 13.8% walk rate, which is in line with his minor league numbers. His K% was much higher (18.7) than at lower levels, but this should normalize as he becomes more comfortable. The Orioles seem dedicated to their youth movement, and Rutschman is a Top 3 defensive catcher by multiple metrics, so he will be in their lineup on a regular basis. You might have to draft him in the fifth or sixth round to get him, but he has the potential to make it worth your while.

Wander Franco will only be 22 years old when the first pitch of the MLB season is thrown. This is important to remember coming off a disappointing 2022 campaign in which he only played 83 games due to hamstring and hamate bone injuries. When he is healthy, Franco offers all the potential in the world, and if he can get 600 plate appearances in 2023, he could be a league winner with his current ADP of 92. He doesn't strike out, will always hit for average, is a smart baserunner, and has fantastic raw power. With only 153 MLB games under his belt, he has yet to show all he is capable of, and it is worth it to chase his upside.

Willy Adames had the second-most home runs by a shortstop (31) in 2022, finishing only two behind Corey Seager for the lead. He went 8-for-11 in stolen bases, scored 83 runs, and tallied 98 RBI. So why isn't he begin drafted higher than his current ADP of 101? His batting average was .238 which perfectly matched his xBA. He did cut down on his strikeout rate, but he can be something of a free swinger. Still, in leagues with an SS and MI slot, fantasy managers can do a lot worse than a 30/10 guy in the ninth round.

Jose Abreu signed a 3-year, $58.5 million with the Astros to serve as their first baseman. Entering his age-36 season, Abreu's Statcast page suggests that he is still a solid hitter, though there was a significant decrease in home runs, dropping from 30 to 15. So now the primary question is how much is his age impacting his power. His counting stats should get a boost, batting in one of the best lineups in baseball, and if his home runs correct at all, he will serve as a nice corner infield piece on fantasy squads.

Robbie Ray signed a five-year contract with Seattle in 2022 and produced well, even if he didn't live up to his Cy Young numbers. He started 32 games, throwing 189 innings and striking out 212 batters. His ERA made the expected leap up to 3.71, but his BB% stayed in the single digits, meaning he may have repaired his proverbial Achilles heel for good. While he is not an SP1, he carries a lot of good assets as an SP2 for 2023 and can be expected to finish in the general vicinity of 2022's numbers.

Andres Gimenez became the Guardians' everyday shortstop in 2022, and the 24-year-old is locked into that role for the foreseeable future thanks to his defense and ability to get on base. His .353 BABIP is unsustainable, so he will bat closer to his xBA of .257 than his .297 line from last year. What Gimenez offers is speed and a little pop at a scarce position in 2023. A 20/20 season is well in play.

Byron Buxton staying healthy is the carrot dangling in front of fantasy managers every offseason. He is above the 90th percentile in all of the power categories and sprint speed, and when he is on the field, he is a dynamic player who contributes mightily to fantasy teams. Therein lies the problem, of course. Buxton played in only 92 games last year, 61 in 2021, 87 in 2019, and 28 in 2018. The volume just hasn't been there to truly be a fantasy stud. Yet every year on draft day, there he sits in the ninth or tenth round, and every year we all imagine what an absolute steal that would be if he were to play 140+ games. It's a risky proposition, but the payoff could be incredible. Just make sure you have enough IL slots.

Tyler Glasnow was having an outstanding season in 2021 before requiring Tommy John surgery. He somehow made it back before the end of the 2022 season, starting two games and looking like the Glasnow of old. The 29-year-old's Steamer projections show a 2.96 xFIP and a K/9 north of 11, and his current ADP is 92. He is a risky SP2 and would be a much safer pick as a third or fourth starter. However, if he stays healthy, he has all the makings of an SP1.

Nathaniel Lowe became something of an on-base machine in 2022. The 27-year-old slashed .302/.358/.492 with 27 HR, 76 RBI, and 74 runs scored in 157 games. That put him in the Top 10 first basemen at the end of the year and those who rode out his atrocious stretch at the beginning of the year were definitely rewarded. His .363 BABIP is due to regress so draft him with the knowledge that his batting average may drop 15-20 points. Short of that, though, he is a solid choice in the ninth round, particularly in OBP leagues.

Triston McKenzie reduced his BB/9 from 4.35 to 2.07 in 2022, skyrocketing up fantasy rankings and boosting the the pitching staff for any manager who rolled the dice on him. The question becomes what his fourth MLB season will bring. His .237 BABIP is due for some regression, and his xFIP was 3.77. He struck out 191 batters in 191 1/3 innings, with a practically unhittable curveball. He does allow more hard contact than we'd like from an SP1, but he slots in nicely as an SP2/SP3 as long as fantasy managers account for some regression while drafting.

Vinnie Pasquantino can hit. This wasn't really in question before his arrival in the big leagues last summer, but he slashed .295/.383/.450 in 72 games for the Royals when he finally got the call-up. His BB% was actually higher than his K%, though there is a good chance this won't hold in 2023. However, his xwOBA was .374, so you can believe in those on-base skills going forward. With a current ADP of 93, the 25-year-old should produce good value for fantasy managers who focus on position scarcity in the early rounds.

Corbin Carroll mashed his way through the minor league system and arrived in Arizona for his debut in 2022. He played in 32 games, hitting four homers and stealing two bases while slashing .260/.330/.500 in the small sample size. Carroll's upside is in the 30/30 range, and he should have no trouble sticking as the everyday centerfielder with his plus-defense. He may suffer some of the typical rookie issues, but all signs point to a quick adjustment and solid fantasy production.

Nobody signed with more teams in the offseason than Carlos Correa. The 28-year-old shortstop did the tango with the Giants (12-year, $315 million) and waltzed with the Mets (12-year, $315 million) before they rejected him, and he decided to take his ex back, signing a 6-year, $200 million contract with the Twins. Both San Francisco and New York balked at Correa following a physical that reportedly raised concerns about his ankle injury and how it would hold up in such long contracts. Fantasy managers shouldn't worry any more than they typically do about his injury risk. When he is healthy, he is a slash machine (career .279/.357/.479), and even though his running days are over, he will make an excellent SS2 or middle infielder on fantasy rosters.

Rhys Hoskins lost 67 points off his ISO but hit three more home runs than he did in 2021. His strikeout rate remains quite high, and he won't bat for much average, but the addition of Trea Turner should boost his counting stats high enough for fantasy managers not to care much. He finished as 1B15 last year, but there is a good chance he could move up the chart with his impending free agency looming. Hoskins makes for a nice CI option.

Nestor Cortes was a gift to fantasy managers who drafted him late in 2022. He started 28 games, throwing 158 1/3 innings, striking out 163 batters, and maintaining a 2.44/0.92 ERA/WHIP. His GB% of 33.5 and LOB% of 82.8 contribute to his excellent ratios. The Yankees were the best team in Defensive Runs Saved, which furthered his effectiveness. He won't come with quite as big of a discount in 2023, but in the tenth round, he is a great SP3.

Christian Yelich played in 154 games in 2022, his highest total since his last year in Miami in 2017. The 31-year-old hits the ball hard, in the 90th percentile in HardHit% and maxEV, and his BB% is a stellar 13.1%. His primary downfall when it comes to fantasy value is his 58.6%, which limits his HR and RBI totals. Of note, he increased his stolen bases, and this trend could continue in 2023 with the new baserunning rules. He is projected as a 15/15 outfielder and worth a look in the double-digit rounds.

C.J. Cron hit 22 home runs with a .302 average and .400 wOBA when he played at Coors Field in 2022. Away from Denver, the 33-year-old hit seven homers with a .214 average and .274 wOBA. If your league is deep enough to stream a 1B based on home/away location, then Cron is a perfectly fine option. For those in shallower leagues, 81 games of production aren't quite as enticing.

Camilo Doval went 27 for 30 in save opportunities in 2022 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and he will enter 2023 as the clear-cut closer for the Giants. While his BB% is higher than we'd like from a truly elite closer, he creates weak contact thanks to a 99-mph cutter. Even with the walks, Doval is a Tier 2 closer you can get in the seventh or eighth round.

While it's a terrible idea to chase wins on draft day, it is still worth noting that Kyle Wright had 21 of them in 2022. Wright was an entirely different pitcher in 2022 than he was the year before, cutting his BB% from 14.3 to 7.2 and raising his K% from 17.1 to 23.6. He ended with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.16, and 174 strikeouts in 180 1/3 innings. Even accounting for some increase in ERA, his xFIP last year was 3.30, so the underlying metrics don't suggest extreme regression. Wright will be a helpful SP3 who can be had in the tenth round of most drafts.

Logan Webb flashed his strikeout upside in 2021, leading to fantasy managers overvaluing him in 2022. Instead, his K/9 reverted back to his earlier 7.63 range versus the 9.59 K/9 outlier. Webb utilized his slider and changeup more last season, which helped to protect his ERA and WHIP. Even though the Giants finished last in defensive runs saved, his high ground ball rate didn't hurt him. Webb is more of an SP3/SP4 now and should be drafted as such.

Seiya Suzuki arrived to MLB and kicked off his career in the States with a bang, hitting four HR and getting on base at a .398 clip. A finger injury derailed his season, but he finished the year strong. Suzuki struggled to adjust to the different levels of pitching, but he is a prime candidate for a bounceback season. His sophomore campaign should be a boon to fantasy teams, and he will come at a discount.

Steven Kwan was hard for fantasy managers to believe in last season, but he ended up being the 16th-ranked outfielder in 5x5 leagues when it was all said and done. Kwan is in the 100th percentile of K% after striking out only 60 times in 638 plate appearances. He is a pure contact hitter who gets on base and isn't afraid to run (19-for-24 in SB attempts). Suppose he continues to bat atop the Cleveland order and takes advantage of the new baserunning rules. In that case, he is a perfect complement to whatever three true outcome player you draft for power.

Gunnar Henderson's Double-A and Triple-A numbers were cheat-code level, so the Orioles brought him up for 34 games in 2022. The first overall pick of the 2019 MLB Draft responded with four homers, 12 runs, 18 RBI, and one stolen base while carrying an xwOBA of .338. His on-base skills and power to all fields will be a boon to fantasy teams, even while he gets the kinks out that every 21-year-old player experiences.

Gleyber Torres hit 24 HR in 2022, 15 more than he managed in 2021 while using an increased launch angle and a 10.7% barrel rate. He attempted five fewer steals, though this could correct with the new baserunning rules in 2023. Torres played a much better second base than shortstop, and he should have a lock on the position. Batting in the middle of that Yankee lineup should result in a 24/75/75 season, which will suffice as a 2B1 given how shallow the position is.

Luis Severino returned from Tommy John surgery, and the Yankees applied restraint to his workload early in the season. He then incurred a lat injury that cost him a 60-day IL stint and limited his start count to 19. However, in 102 innings, he struck out 112 batters and carried a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. After he returned from the IL, he showed no signs of lingering issues down the stretch. Walks and home runs will always keep Severino from being in that upper echelon of starters, but he has SP1 ability that can be had long after the studs are gone.

Tyler O'Neill experienced a litany of injuries in 2022 that inhibited the power he demonstrated in 2021. His HR tally dropped from 34 to 14 and games played went from 132 to 96. Not all was lost, though, as the 27-year-old showed off more of his speed, stealing 14 bases, which was only one less than his 2021 total. There is a lot to love about O'Neill in fantasy formats, but there is a lot to question as well. If he returns to 2021 form, he can be a five-category contributor, but he comes with plenty of risk in 2023.

Logan Gilbert flashed the goods in 2021 and returned for a great year in 2022. He pitched 185 2/3 innings, striking out 174 batters with a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His Statcast page looks concerning at first, finishing above the 50th percentile in only three categories - extension, fastball velocity, and BB%. Gilbert throws five different pitches, which keeps hitters off balance and allows him to be successful. He will turn 26 in May, and 2023 will show us what kind of long-term fantasy asset he may be. Much like his teammate, George Kirby, Gilbert is a nice SP4 piece you can grab a little later in drafts.

Anthony Santander answered the fantasy world's questions regarding his power by hitting 33 HR with 89 RBI and 78 runs in a Baltimore lineup that should be much improved in 2023. His xwOBA and xSLG are both near the 90th percentile, and he hit particularly well at Camden Yards in spite of the extended left field fence. With a seasoned Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson in front of him, Santander will fill your power categories in the tenth round or so.

George Kirby arrived in the majors in 2022 and immediately showed off his meticulous control which led to a 6.05 K:BB ratio. The lack of walks is his calling card, even if he gives up hard contact on his four other pitches. Fantasy managers are clamoring for him to develop a second devastating pitch to increase his effectiveness overall. At age 25, Kirby can serve as a great SP3/SP4 for fantasy managers with hope that he will climb the ranks going forward.

 

A lot of things went wrong for Giancarlo Stanton in 2022. He missed 52 games due to injury, and his BABIP was a career-low (by a lot) .227. His strikeout rate crept above 30% for the first time since his rookie year. Fantasy managers are scared because of injury risk or age, but Stanton is going to mash. He hit 31 HR in 451 plate appearances with 78 RBI. These numbers and his BA/OBP should go up, assuming his BABIP recorrects somewhat closer to his .314 number. At his current ADP of 129, he is an absolute steal, even taking into account that he won't play 150 games.

Clayton Kershaw will be 35 on Opening Day, a game he has a high chance to start. He still has elite breaking balls that limit hard contact and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Kershaw has always pitched as though allowing walks offends him to his core, and he is still in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. Fantasy managers need only remember that his days of 30 starts are long gone, and he will have one or two IL stints during the season. Assuming his ADP remains reasonable, he is an asset to your staff.

Alejandro Kirk played in 139 games, getting 541 plate appearances and showing improvement in almost every area. The 24-year-old slashed .285/.372/.415 and added 14 home runs. His Statcast page is filled with red in every area except barrel% and sprint speed. The Blue Jays heeded his offensive prowess by using him as DH on many days when he wasn't behind the plate. Toronto also helped sort out its overload of catchers by traded heralded prospect Gabriel Moreno to Arizona for Daulton Varsho. While Varsho has catcher eligibility, he will most likely play outfield or DH rather than take at-bats away from Kirk. Feel free to wait on catcher and snag Kirk in the eighth or ninth round. He'll make it worth your patience.

 

Amed Rosario's numbers in 2022 looked quite similar to the ones from 2021. He hit 11 homers, stole 18 bases, and slashed .283/.312/.403 in 153 games. He still has a microscopic walk rate, but he also took four points off his K%. A lot of his fantasy worth is tied up in whether or not he continues to bat at the top of the lineup. It's worth watching in Spring Training, and if he routinely bats behind Jose Ramirez, drop him in your rankings a bit as the counting stats will be affected. However, he can be a mid-round source of stolen bases either way.

David Bednar holds the illustrious title of Best Closer on Worst Team heading into 2023. The 28-year-old mixes a 96-mph fastball with a 77-mph curveball and 90-mph changeup for a 32.9 K%. Even though he had an ERA of 2.61, his FIP was 2.44, which is a product of pitching in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball. Pittsburgh may not win many games, but Bednar is clearly the closer and should be dominant in any uniform.

 

Jake McCarthy is a vessel for stolen bases in the later rounds of drafts. He is exactly the type of guy you wait for once you've built up your other categories. He could pop double-digit homers, but all fantasy managers need to care about is that he keeps running well (23-for-26 SB in 2022) and with impunity.

 

If you feel the need for pitching speed, Hunter Greene offers you all that and then some. Unfortunately, he also offers 3.4 BB/9 as he sometimes isn't sure where his 100-mph throws will end up. Down the stretch in 2022, he showed improvement with a 45:8 K:BB ratio in August and September. The 23-year-old is projected to have a K-rate north of 30%, and he will certainly boost a fantasy team's strikeout count. He pitches for a terrible team in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, so there will be growing pains, but if he harnesses his talent, he will be a steal at his current ADP.

Willson Contreras signed a 5-year, $87.5 million deal with the Cardinals and will presumably bat in an advantageous position in their lineup. He shaved seven percentage points off his K-rate, which will probably revert to somewhere in the middle in 2023. The 30-year-old has always had good on-base skills and 20-HR power, and his RBI total should hover in the 60-70 range. While he is a significantly worse pitch framer than the Hall of Famer he is replacing, St. Louis will find a way to keep his bat in the lineup. The only concern is the continued leg and ankle injuries that he experienced last year, but he comes at a discount and remains a C1 in this draft.

Jeremy Pena arrived to Houston and promptly hit 22 HR and stole 11 bases. The 22 home runs came out of nowhere, as he had only 18 in his three-year minor league career. While he is projected to have double digits in those two categories again, unless he learns a great deal more patience at the plate and figures out how to get on base more, he could be a bust in 2023.

 

 

 

 

 

Clay Holmes had two seasons in 2022. Before the All-Star Break, he had 16 saves, seven holds, an ERA of 1.34, and a 41:8 K:BB ratio. After the ASB, he hit the IL with a back strain and had four saves, an ERA of 4.44, and a 25:13 K:BB ratio. With the Yankees letting Chapman go to the Royals, Holmes currently stands alone on the closer depth chart. If you buy into his first half from 2022, he is a steal at his current ADP. If you don't, it is wise to stay clear.

 

 

 

Scott Barlow held a lot more fantasy appeal before the Royals went out and signed Aroldis Chapman. Barlow will still get his fair share of save opportunities, but this smells like a closer by committee to start the season.

 

Liam Hendriks quietly had a very solid year for a disappointing White Sox team. He collected 37 saves, while pitching 57 2/3 innings and striking out 85 batters. He remained in the 90th percentile or higher in xBA, K%, fastball velocity, extension, xERA, and Whiff%. He missed some time with a right forearm strain; though there were no immediate signs of this lingering issue, it is something to take into consideration. He announced in January that he had been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, so his timetable for return is in question.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M.J. Melendez debuted and appeared in 129 games in 2022, showing off his patience and power to the tune of 18 HR and a 12.4% BB rate. He batted leadoff 64 times, indicating the Royals are dedicated to getting him plate appearances in front of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Melendez is not a good defensive catcher, but he should play enough to retain eligibility there. Unless you're in a quirky league where defense counts, Melendez fills a scarce position with decent skills.