Who Should I Draft?

Adam Thielen or Tyreek Hill

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Experts' Pick
 
  Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
 
 
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Recommended by
48 of 152 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 11# 13-
Best Rank# 2# 7-
Worst Rank# 26# 26-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total164.2148.8-
Avg Game10.99.3-
Avg Projection153.5138.5-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank3210-
    
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Injury Alert-
    
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Tyreek HillAdam ThielenAdd Player
    
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  Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
2018 Schedule 
Week 1 at LAC vs. SF
Week 2 at PIT at GB
Week 3 vs. SF vs. BUF
Week 4 at DEN at LAR
Week 5 vs. JAC at PHI
Week 6 at NE vs. ARI
Week 7 vs. CIN at NYJ
Week 8 vs. DEN vs. NO
Week 9 at CLE vs. DET
Week 10 vs. ARIBYE WEEK
Week 11 at LAR at CHI
Week 12BYE WEEK vs. GB
Week 13 at OAK at NE
Week 14 vs. BAL at SEA
Week 15 vs. LAC vs. MIA
Week 16 at SEA at DET
Week 17 vs. OAK vs. CHI
  Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Receiving
   
Receptions76.180.8
Rec Yards1,015.41,068.7
Rec TDs6.45.5
   
Rushing
   
Rush Attempts16.41.2
Rush Yards100.27.4
Rush TDs0.80.0
   
Points
   
Fantasy Points153.5138.5
   
  Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
2017 Points 
Week 119.815.7
Week 24.92.4
Week 315.09.8
Week 43.53.9
Week 56.84.5
Week 62.59.7
Week 719.24.1
Week 81.815.8
Week 913.3
Week 1022.6
Week 118.418.3
Week 125.48.9
Week 1330.55.1
Week 147.516.5
Week 1514.83.0
Week 1610.82.4
Week 176.1
  Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
2017 Targets 
Week 1810
Week 266
Week 388
Week 468
Week 568
Week 6713
Week 7812
Week 8610
Week 94
Week 1012
Week 1179
Week 121111
Week 1395
Week 14612
Week 1565
Week 1676
Week 177
  Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Expert 
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
Hill handled more volume than anticipated with 75 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven TDs. Yet each score stretched at least 30 yards, as he vanished inside the red zone with two touches. Patrick Mahomes has the arm to make more deep magic, but he won't match Alex Smith's precision. Sammy Watkins will also threaten Hill's pedestrian 19.3 % target share, so don't touch the 5'10" playmaker at his bloated No. 28 overall ADP. Volume takes precedent over efficiency in fantasy. Just look at Thielen, who enjoyed a breakout campaign (91 catches for 1,276 yards) by receiving 50 more targets than 2016. He averaged an identical 14.0 yards per reception and saw his catch % drop from 75 to 64.1, but a starting role propelled him to stardom. A slow finish (20 catches, 217 yards over final five games including the playoffs) causes some concern, and investors are paying for a repeat of last year's WR12 finish.
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
Last season, Tyreek broke out for 1,183 yards and 7 TDs, but he didn't catch a single red-zone TD. That can't continue. Add in Sammy Watkins and downgrade from QB and we are looking at a major drop off in production from season to season.With Pat Shurmur out of Minnesota, Thielen could see a major drop in targets. Granted, the quarterback situation has improved, but Dalvin Cook is back and should cut into those targets as well. At Thielen's current ADP, you may want to cool off of him.
Jody Smith
FantasyPros
Has clicked very well with Pat Mahomes this preseason, including a welcomed presence in the red zone. Prime regression candidate with only 10 TDs in four seasons. Won't see the same number of targets with Kirk Cousins under center.
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
If you want to worry about new additions (WR Watkins) or big-play sustainability, that's your prerogative. I will happily take any discount you want to give me for the biggest home-run threat in the gameMay not have teammate Diggs' upside, but he's yet to miss a game in his four seasons and he's serviceable or better (in some cases, much better) in most every aspect of being a receiver
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
It's clear that Tyreek Hill is among the most efficient wide receivers in the game, as his 11.3 yards per target in 2017 ranked first in the league among those with 70 or more targets. Not just that, but the closest player to him was Marvin Jones at 10.3 YPT (a whopping 9 percent difference). That number came up quite a bit from his 2016 total that was at 7.1 yards per target, so you might want to dial back those large expectations. The addition of Sammy Watkins isn't going to help him gain a higher target share, either, as they paid Watkins a generous $50 million. As high as you might be on Pat Mahomes, it's going to be incredibly hard for him to top Alex Smith's MVP-caliber 2017 season. There's regression coming for Hill, but his price does not reflect that. If you can snag him in the fourth-round, that's when you should feel okay with the risk. Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again. While doing research for Boom, Bust, and Everything in Between, Thielen finished as a WR3 or better just 56.3 percent of the time despite all those targets. Even if he scores more touchdowns, his lost targets are going to hurt.
Staff Rankings
QB List
The fastest man in fantasy, Tyreek Hill paid handsomely those who drafted him, recording nearly 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns while adding in a punt return touchdown and some rushing yards from trick plays. Why then is Hill stuck at #14 on the rankings you ask? Two reasons: there's a new sheriff in Kansas City named Patrick Mahomes, and Brett Veach (the Chiefs GM, and yes I had to look it up) is coocoo for Cocoa Puffs. To go alongside the speedy Hill, Veach spent $48 million for three years of the perennially overrated Sammy Watkins. So not only does Hill now have to worry about forming a report with the rookie Mahomes, but he'll have Watkins and Chris Conley chomping at his heels for the targets that resident mad-man Travis Kelce doesn't get. Know the upside is real, but draft accordingly."White Lightning" breaks into the top 10 this year as he managed to outpace Stefon Diggs in what was one of the best wide receiver duos in fantasy last year. Thielen's target share, great hands, and crisp routes made him the go-to receiver last year in a Minnesota offense that managed to get along just fine even without its star running back Dalvin Cook. Add in that extra Cook (certainly not too many here), the same stud defense, and Kirk Cousins under center, and you have the recipe for another stellar fantasy season from the breakout receiver.
Kevin Wheeler
NFL Mock
Last year, Tyreek Hill (WR8) became the ONLY receiver since 2000 to finish as a fantasy WR1 (top-12) while seeing fewer than 20% of team targets and fewer than 10% of red-zone targets in his WR1 single-season. @GrahamBarfield He's very good, but he also had as many red zone targets as Virgil Green last year. All of his touchdowns were 30+ yards. Incredibly hard to sustain what he did last year, let alone with another able pass-catcher in the offense now. @LateRoundQB Small, but fast as lightening in an offensive scheme that fits his athleticism. He benefits greatly from the addition of Watkins pulling away any shut-down corners. At 24 years old he should be able to hold value for many years.  
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Hill can take any touch to the house but Watkins being added and a big QB change could complicate mattersDiggs could cut into his role a bit and he has to build chemistry with Cousins but he's clearly a stud
Seth McKinley
FF Fellas
High risk, high reward 
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Watkins will undoubtedly eat up some of his target share but the Chiefs promise to be much more explosive in 2018Should still put up WR2 numbers in a more agressive offense
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
Hill had a breakout year in his second season averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. He could be even better if the Chiefs go with QB Patrick Mahomes II. While Mahomes II has little experience, he has a much stronger arm than QB Alex Smith and that could help Hill be an even better deep threat.Thielen averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game and was one of the most reliable possession receivers in the NFL. He could have even bigger numbers playing with QB Kirk Cousins.