Who Should I Draft?

Jameis Winston or Case Keenum

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Experts' Pick
 
  Case Keenum
QB - DEN
Case Keenum
Jameis Winston
QB - TB
Jameis Winston
 
 
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Recommended by
47 of 151 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 25# 27-
Best Rank# 12# 16-
Worst Rank# 32# 31-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total238.1201.8-
Avg Game15.915.5-
Avg Projection227.5208.1-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank914-
    
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Injury Alert3 weeks-
    
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Case KeenumJameis WinstonAdd Player
    
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  Case Keenum
QB - DEN
Case Keenum
Jameis Winston
QB - TB
Jameis Winston
2018 Schedule 
Week 1 vs. SEA at NO
Week 2 vs. OAK vs. PHI
Week 3 at BAL vs. PIT
Week 4 vs. KC at CHI
Week 5 at NYJBYE WEEK
Week 6 vs. LAR at ATL
Week 7 at ARI vs. CLE
Week 8 at KC at CIN
Week 9 vs. HOU at CAR
Week 10BYE WEEK vs. WAS
Week 11 at LAC at NYG
Week 12 vs. PIT vs. SF
Week 13 at CIN vs. CAR
Week 14 at SF vs. NO
Week 15 vs. CLE at BAL
Week 16 at OAK at DAL
Week 17 vs. LAC vs. ATL
  Case Keenum
QB - DEN
Case Keenum
Jameis Winston
QB - TB
Jameis Winston
Passing
   
Pass Att551.5465.0
Pass Cmp342.8288.7
Pass Yards3,805.03,443.9
Pass TDs21.620.3
Ints12.612.0
   
Rushing
   
Rush Attempts40.433.8
Rush Yards147.2132.6
Rush TDs1.11.1
   
Misc
   
Fumbles3.53.6
   
Points
   
Fantasy Points227.5208.1
   
  Case Keenum
QB - DEN
Case Keenum
Jameis Winston
QB - TB
Jameis Winston
2017 Points 
Week 1
Week 26.712.5
Week 328.615.5
Week 48.826.5
Week 511.818.5
Week 613.12.4
Week 76.423.4
Week 817.53.7
Week 93.5
Week 1024.1
Week 1117.2
Week 1227.3
Week 1317.018.6
Week 1419.214.4
Week 1519.425.8
Week 169.413.3
Week 1711.623.7
  Case Keenum
QB - DEN
Case Keenum
Jameis Winston
QB - TB
Jameis Winston
Expert 
Jody Smith
FantasyPros
Like Alex Smith, Case Keenum had a career-year and now moves on to a whole new team and system. John Elway did not spend a high draft pick on competition, so he's much safer now, but Keenum doesn't offer a lot of upside in Denver. Winston missed three games last season but finished as the QB13 in fantasy points-per-game. Now, there's no guarantee he'll even get his starting gig back, making him a dicey proposition.
Rich Piazza
Fantasy Shed
 The team will not commit to him as the "starter" when he comes back from his 3-game suspension. This is a bit of a concern, even though I don't see Ryan Fitzpatrick playing "lights out" during that time.
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
An out-of-nowhere breakout has netted no fantasy love for Case Keenum, who moves to Denver after taking Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game. A superbly efficient season (67.6 completion %, 98.3 QB rating) led the career reserve to a QB14 showing, making him a vast upgrade to last year's Denver signal-callers. That's probably better news for the supporting cast than Keenum, who failed to clear 200 passing yards in five of 15 starts. He's a streamer with an intriguing Week 14-16 schedule (@SF, vs. CLE, @OAK), but there's little reason to draft him in single-QB formats.Drafters have spent years reaching for Winston's upside, and he maintains a QB21 ADP despite opening 2018 with a three-game suspension. No thanks. He finished QB22 in 13 games last year and has yet to place inside the top 12, so there's little reason to stash an erratic, turnover-prone performer when Mitchell Trubisky is still on the board. In all honesty, I'd rather not have any shares of someone with his abhorrent off-field record anyway.
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
 Three game suspension stymies value but should be a top-15 option weekly once he is back under center
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
John Elway did not go get a quarterback in the draft because he appears to be confident in what Keenum offers. Now, he isn't start-worthy every week, but with Thomas and Sanders in the receiver core, there will be a couple starts this season that he provides useful performances.Winston is suspended for three weeks so he is undraftable outside of two-qb leagues. When he returns, however, we are looking at a top-10 quarterback. He was superb last season when healthy, passing for a 16-game rate of 4,900 passing yards so don't sleep on him.
Chet Gresham
WalterFootball
Keenum will have decent receivers to throw to, and he proved he can sustain some fantasy value in a good offense last season with the Vikings. It is yet to be seen if Keenum can make the Broncos better, but he'll be hard-pressed not to in comparison to the tackling dummies they've been putting behind center.Winston was the 14th-best fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis last season despite three games in which he finished under four fantasy points. We should see improvement with the offensive line and Chris Godwin taking over as a full-time starter at wide receiver, so another run toward being a top-10 quarterback should be in order. UPDATE: Winston has a pending three-game suspension, which will hurt his overall numbers, but it doesn't take him out of the fantasy equation.
Staff Rankings
QB List
What a strange season for Case Keenum. After having been anywhere from a bad to mediocre at best quarterback, Keenum took the reins of the Minnesota Vikings offense and ran wild, posting the best season of his career by a longshot and a league-leading 28.1% DVOA (among quarterbacks with at least 200 passes thrown). He ended the year with 3,403 yards and 4,420 effective yards, it was insane. So what can we expect from him this year as the quarterback for the Denver Broncos? It's really hard to predict. I could easily see last season being some weird outlier in Keenum's career, or he could keep things up. There's obviously going to be some regression next season, but it shouldn't go without saying that Keenum made some strides last year. Most notably, he got a lot more comfortable under pressure. In 2016, he posted a 92.0 QB rating in a clean pocket but a miserable 37.4 rating under pressure. Last year, he improved significantly, posting a 107.0 QB rating in a clean pocket and a 72.6 rating under pressure. He had the fourth-best completion percentage under pressure at 53.6% and the second-best sack conversion rate at 10.3%, both of which are impressive given he was the sixth-most pressured quarterback in the league thanks to the Vikings' poor offensive line. Unfortunately for Keenum, the Broncos' offensive line isn't much better, and he's not going to have the greatest running game (though I could see a Royce Freeman breakout season), but he will still have two very talented wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Are they as good as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs? Perhaps not, but they're definitely close. There's definitely risk here, given Keenum's track record and the fact that he's moved to a slightly worse offense, but he won't be challenged for the job at all and still has some offensive talent to work with.Famous Jameis had a rough season emphasized by injury and inconsistency. There were definitely good weeks, like his Week 15 performance, but then there were games like his Week 9 game. Still, Winston showed an adept ability at making big throws, especially on corner routes where he posted a 114.3 QB rating, and he did finish the year with a solid 14.3% DVOA. However he was a pretty volatile player, making some poor decisions on his throws, leading the league with eight fumbles, and struggling mightily with his accuracy, throwing the ball high far too often. He's a boom-or-bust type of player, and given he's suspended for the first three games of the year because he groped an Uber driver, it's hard to consider him a viable fantasy option this year.
Kevin Wheeler
NFL Mock
 In the 11 games last season where Jameis Winston played 90%+ of the snaps, he averaged 307 yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 1.0 interception for a 18.9 fantasy point per game average. Had he played at that pace for a full 16-game season, he would have finished as the No. 2 quarterback. @4for4_John
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
This should be interesting, as Keenum was essentially left for dead in the NFL before joining Pat Shurmur's offense as a backup to Sam Bradford. Over the 15 games he played, Keenum over 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. The question becomes - was it the offense, or was Keenum just set-up to fail under Jeff Fisher while in Los Angeles? Heading to Denver, the talent surrounding him hasn't decreased, though the offensive line may not be as strong. Bill Musgrave's offense hasn't been what you'd call potent in recent years and that's what's got me slightly concerned. Still, it wouldn't shock me if Keenum posts solid QB2-type numbers in 2018. Did you know that if you combined Winston's and Ryan Fitzpatrick's passing yardage last year, it would've led the NFL? Their combined 4,607 yards were more than Tom Brady's 4,577, though their touchdowns (26) were somewhat lacking. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict, but seeing Winston's yardage with the weapons around him, big things are going to happen for him. The three-game suspension that he received definitely threw some water on the fire, but you should be able to snag Winston with the final pick in your draft and you should have a top-12 quarterback on a points-per-game basis.
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Keenum is probably a one-year wonder that got paid and goes away. Denver hasn't been a fun passing offense for a while and I doubt it changes nowI believed in Winston last year and he failed me. I won't make that mistake in 2018 so he has to prove a lot but he could easily be a great sleeper