Who Should I Draft?

Patrick Mahomes or Tyler Lockett

Looking for Start/Sit Advice? Go to Who Should I Start

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA
Tyler Lockett
 
 
Expert
Recommendation
50%
Recommended by
79 of 157 experts
50%
Recommended by
78 of 157 experts
Add Player
Most Accurate Experts 
    
Top ExpertsTop QB,WR ExpertsTop Player Experts See who the Most Accurate Experts would draft
Upgrade Now
    
Rankings 
    
ECR# 34# 37-
Best Rank# 7# 20-
Worst Rank# 65# 86-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total417.0165.4-
Avg Game26.110.3-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank328-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
    
Expert Ranks 
Patrick MahomesTyler LockettAdd Player
    
Dave RichardD. Richard
CBS Sports
2 w
#31#27-
    
Joe BondJ. Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
#22#29-
    
Bobby SylvesterB. Sylv...
FantasyPros
2 w
#35#46-
    
Doug OrthD. Orth
FFToday
2 w
#32#58-
    
Jake CielyJ. Ciely
The Athletic
2 w
#32#27-
    
Dalton Del DonD. Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#32#27-
    
Jason MooreJ. Moore
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#32#31-
    
Matt SchaufM. Schauf
Draft Sharks
2 w
#54#27-
    
Dennis SosicD. Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
#22#31-
    
Richard SavillR. Savill
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
#37#33-
    
Kevin WheelerK. Wheeler
Draftwize
2 w
#47#37-
    
Rudy GambleR. Gamble
Razzball
2 w
#46#36-
    
Dale DeMottD. DeMott
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
2 w
#20#45-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
FullTime Fantasy
2 w
#32#31-
    
Matthew FreedmanM. Free...
The Action Network
2 w
#54#27-
    
Andrew EricksonA. Eric...
FantasyData
2 w
#54#30-
    
Christian BritoC. Brito
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
2 w
#32#50-
    
Robert WaziakR. Waziak
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#53#32-
    
Andy VandaA. Vanda
Take Your League
2 w
#32#33-
    
Mike WrightM. Wright
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#53#26-
    
Dan ClasgensD. Clas...
Get Sports Info
2 w
#32#46-
    
Jamie CalandroJ. Cala...
Fantasy Team Advice
2 w
#32#49-
    
The FFGhostT. FFGhost
Dynasty League Football
2 w
#32#41-
    
Christopher VentraC. Ventra
RotoExperts
2 w
#32#51-
    
Brian StraitB. Strait
FTLS Fantasy Football
2 w
#38#56-
    
Kyle YatesK. Yates
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#32#27-
    
Scott PianowskiS. Pian...
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#35#40-
    
Davis MattekD. Mattek
RotoExperts
2 w
#33#61-
    
Brandon FunstonB. Funston
The Athletic
2 w
#35#29-
    
Thor AkerleyT. Akerley
Fantasy Team Advice
2 w
#32#20-
    
Mick CiallelaM. Cial...
Fantrax
2 w
#46#33-
    
Bill EnrightB. Enright
FFChamps
2 w
#54#30-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
QB List
2 w
#36#38-
    
Andy SingletonA. Sing...
Expand The Boxscore
2 w
#35#29-
    
Andrew FerrisA. Ferris
Fantasy Hot Read
2 w
#32#27-
    
Andrew GouldA. Gould
FantasyPros
2 w
#28#49-
    
Elisha TwerskiE. Twerski
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#31-
    
Andy HollowayA. Holl...
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#32#30-
    
Heath CappsH. Capps
Fake Teams
2 w
#32#27-
    
Pierre CamusP. Camus
RotoBaller
2 w
#58#35-
    
Bill DubielB. Dubiel
RotoBaller
2 w
#32#50-
    
Kevin HansonK. Hanson
EDSFootball
2 w
#32#31-
    
Justin BooneJ. Boone
theScore
2 w
#49#39-
    
Scott BarrettS. Barrett
Pro Football Focus
2 w
#32#27-
    
Brad ZieglerB. Ziegler
The Athletic
2 w
#32#27-
    
Marc CavigliaM. Cavi...
Bruno Boys
2 w
#32#41-
    
Jeff RatcliffeJ. Ratc...
Pro Football Focus
2 w
#32#33-
    
Derek LoflandD. Lofland
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#49-
    
Mike TagliereM. Tagl...
FantasyPros
2 w
#39#40-
    
Jared SmolaJ. Smola
Draft Sharks
2 w
#32#33-
    
Donald GibsonD. Gibson
FantasyPros
2 w
#22#25-
    
Adam RonisA. Ronis
FullTime Fantasy
2 w
#32#27-
    
Liz LozaL. Loza
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#32#51-
    
Jason WillanJ. Willan
Gridiron Experts
2 w
#54#41-
    
Michael PetropoulosM. Petr...
BRoto Fantasy
2 w
#22#34-
    
Ryan NoonanR. Noonan
The Quant Edge
2 w
#32#30-
    
Anthony CervinoA. Cervino
Gridiron Experts
2 w
#32#30-
    
Kaz KalitaK. Kalita
Big Guy Fantasy Sports
2 w
#32#27-
    
Justin GeorgeJ. George
Take Your League
2 w
#32#30-
    
Tim JablonskiT. Jabl...
The Hateful 8
2 w
#37#35-
    
Jacob GibbsJ. Gibbs
SportsLine
2 w
#35#31-
    
Rich PiazzaR. Piazza
Fantasy Shed
2 w
#54#34-
    
Seth KleinS. Klein
Fantrax
2 w
#32#30-
    
Jacob HubmanJ. Hubman
The Fantasy Headliners
2 w
#32#43-
    
Scott SmithS. Smith
RotoViz
2 w
#48#30-
    
Nick MarianoN. Mariano
RotoBaller
2 w
#31#26-
    
Brad EvansB. Evans
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#54#31-
    
Matt De LimaM. De Lima
FullTime Fantasy
2 w
#32#34-
    
Alex BlickleA. Blickle
Fantasy Team Advice
2 w
#54#49-
    
Jody SmithJ. Smith
FantasyData
2 w
#38#27-
    
Andy BehrensA. Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#32#27-
    
Justin SablichJ. Sablich
5th Down Fantasy
2 w
#32#30-
    
David BiggsD. Biggs
Drink Five
2 w
#32#30-
    
Raju ByfieldR. Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
2 w
#22#86-
    
Matthew HillM. Hill
DataForce Fantasy Football
2 w
#32#30-
    
Michael TomlinM. Tomlin
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
#22#29-
    
Muntradamus M.
Beast Dome
2 w
#59#78-
    
Nick HumphreysN. Hump...
Fantasy Victors
2 w
#32#58-
    
Matt OkadaM. Okada
Redshirts Fantasy Football
2 w
#54#51-
    
Mauricio GutierrezM. Guti...
Estadio Fantasy
2 w
#36#38-
    
Site RankingsS. Rank...
FantasyOMatic
2 w
#31#30-
    
Greg SmithG. Smith
TwoQBs
2 w
#22#35-
    
Seth McKinleyS. McKi...
FF Fellas
2 w
#32#66-
    
Jeff BoggisJ. Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
2 w
#35#30-
    
Michael FlorioM. Florio
Fantrax
2 w
#32#41-
    
Tozzi BrothersT. Brot...
Legion Report
2 w
#32#44-
    
Jason LongfellowJ. Long...
Razzball
2 w
#32#21-
    
Nick ZylakN. Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
2 w
#31#29-
    
Tyler LoechnerT. Loec...
RotoViz
2 w
#32#52-
    
Zach BrunnerZ. Brunner
FantasyPros
2 w
#39#42-
    
Dan HarrisD. Harris
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#30-
    
Joseph DolanJ. Dolan
Fantasy Free Agents
2 w
#32#27-
    
Andrew SeifterA. Seifter
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#30-
    
2 w
#7#35-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
Fantasy Knuckleheads
2 w
#32#27-
    
Todd D ClarkT. D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
2 w
#32#50-
    
Kevin RobertsK. Roberts
Breaking Football
2 w
#32#50-
    
Kyle RichardsonK. Rich...
The Fantasy Headliners
2 w
#32#37-
    
Jason PetropoulosJ. Petr...
BRoto Fantasy
2 w
#42#29-
    
Patrick ThormanP. Thorman
Establish the Run
2 w
#32#33-
    
Alan HarrisonA. Harr...
The Fantasy Fix
2 w
#54#49-
    
Anthony StaggsA. Staggs
FF Statistics
2 w
#32#51-
    
Mike HarmonM. Harmon
Swollen Dome
2 w
#32#51-
    
Heath CummingsH. Cumm...
CBS Sports
2 w
#42#50-
    
Dennis EsserD. Esser
Coach Esser
2 w
#32#31-
    
Bart WheelerB. Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
2 w
#44#30-
    
Michael HauffM. Hauff
Gridiron Experts
2 w
#32#34-
    
George BankoG. Banko
Fantasy Football Helpers
2 w
#47#27-
    
Husein ShabazzH. Shabazz
SleeperWire
2 w
#41#24-
    
Mundo Fantasy MXM. Fant...
Mundo Fantasy
2 w
#32#51-
    
Mike RandleM. Randle
BettingPros
2 w
#32#50-
    
Sean KoernerS. Koerner
The Action Network
2 w
#15#73-
    
Brad RichterB. Richter
DailyOverlay
2 w
#32#27-
    
Jamey EisenbergJ. Eise...
CBS Sports
2 w
#29#30-
    
Jeff PaurJ. Paur
RTSports
2 w
#32#58-
    
Jake ArthurJ. Arthur
Colts.com
2 w
#32#49-
    
Allie FontanaA. Fontana
Fighting Chance Fantasy
2 w
#32#31-
    
Pat FitzmauriceP. Fitz...
The Football Girl
2 w
#34#28-
    
Mike MonkM. Monk
IDP Monk
3 w
#35#40-
    
Ryan Hodge R. Hodge
ProjectRoto
3 w
#32#31-
    
Jon CollinsJ. Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
3 w
#32#43-
    
Ken ZalisK. Zalis
Pressbox
3 w
#32#41-
    
Site RankingsS. Rank...
FFToday
3 w
#33#30-
    
Wayne BretskyW. Bretsky
BretskyBall
3 w
#32#31-
    
Brendan DonahueB. Donahue
EDSFootball
3 w
#32#41-
    
Armando CrespoA. Crespo
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
3 w
#22#31-
    
Dave McKayD. McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
3 w
#36#23-
    
Matthew BoweM. Bowe
Razzball
3 w
#35#49-
    
SmittyS.
SleeperU
3 w
#34#76-
    
Ryan SkolrudR. Skolrud
SkullKing Football
3 w
#22#39-
    
Brandon MurchisonB. Murc...
RotoBaller
3 w
#32#41-
    
Dominick PetrilloD. Petr...
Fantasy Hot Read
3 w
#59#51-
    
Mike RigzM. Rigz
Gridiron Experts
3 w
#35#34-
    
Chet GreshamC. Gresham
WalterFootball
3 w
#40#28-
    
Scott EngelS. Engel
RotoBaller
3 w
#41#28-
    
Jason SablichJ. Sablich
5th Down Fantasy
3 w
#32#44-
    
Chris MeaneyC. Meaney
The Athletic
3 w
#22#48-
    
Des BielerD. Bieler
The Washington Post
3 w
#32#31-
    
Craig PhillipsC. Phil...
FF Prophet
3 w
#32#51-
    
Walton SpurlinW. Spurlin
FantasyPros
3 w
#32#58-
    
Kyle AugustK. August
FF Fellas
3 w
#32#72-
    
Matt CampM. Camp
Bleacher Report
3 w
#51#44-
    
Anthony AmicoA. Amico
DraftKings
3 w
#65#34-
    
Walter CherepinskyW. Cher...
WalterFootball
3 w
#14#37-
    
Dynasty GuruD. Guru
The Dynasty Guru
3 w
#32#61-
    
Eric MoodyE. Moody
FantasyData
4 w
#32#33-
    
Mark RossM. Ross
Athlon Sports
4 w
#34#47-
    
Nate HamiltonN. Hami...
Fantrax
4 w
#54#49-
    
Blake FincherB. Fincher
Fantasy Football Cafe
4 w
#32#43-
    
Michael BellerM. Beller
The Athletic
4 w
#63#47-
    
Mike AlexanderM. Alex...
Friends With Fantasy Benefits
08/21
#32#46-
    
Scott WhitfieldS. Whit...
Roto Rankings
4 w
#32#49-
    
J.P. ScottJ. Scott
Athlon Sports
08/16
#21#51-
    
Zach GreubelZ. Greubel
Gridiron Experts
08/14
#35#61-
    
Derek BrownD. Brown
The Quant Edge
06/01
#47#63-
    
David FucilloD. Fucillo
SB Nation
05/08
#22#63-
    
Nick VertucciN. Vert...
Sundays Are For Football
01/31
#26#66-
    
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA
Tyler Lockett
2019 Schedule 
Week 1 at JAC vs. CIN
Week 2 at OAK at PIT
Week 3 vs. BAL vs. NO
Week 4 at DET at ARI
Week 5 vs. IND vs. LAR
Week 6 vs. HOU at CLE
Week 7 at DEN vs. BAL
Week 8 vs. GB at ATL
Week 9 vs. MIN vs. TB
Week 10 at TEN at SF
Week 11 at LACBYE WEEK
Week 12BYE WEEK at PHI
Week 13 vs. OAK vs. MIN
Week 14 at NE at LAR
Week 15 vs. DEN at CAR
Week 16 at CHI vs. ARI
Week 17 vs. LAC vs. SF
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA
Tyler Lockett
2018 Points 
Week 128.311.9
Week 238.812.0
Week 325.314.2
Week 422.95.3
Week 515.816.4
Week 627.08.0
Week 732.8
Week 826.010.7
Week 926.82.2
Week 1020.114.5
Week 1135.97.2
Week 1216.5
Week 1333.012.2
Week 1420.85.9
Week 1518.05.6
Week 1628.29.9
Week 1717.312.9
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA
Tyler Lockett
Expert 
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
Yes, Mahomes is coming off the best fantasy season of all time for a quarterback. Yes, he's going to have some regression. He threw a touchdown on 8.6 percent of his passes in 2018, the seventh-highest mark of all-time. Here's the list of quarterbacks who are ahead of them, included with their touchdown rate in that season, as well as the following season: Peyton Manning (9.9 to 6.2), Ken Stabler (9.3 to 6.8), Deshaun Watson (9.3 to 5.1), Aaron Rodgers (9.0 to 7.1), Tom Brady (8.7 to 5.0), Mark Rypien (8.7 to 4.6). Don't pay for last year's statsThe loss of Doug Baldwin will surely open up some targets for Lockett, and the best part is that they'll come where he's most effective. Lockett has posted the third-best numbers in the league from the slot over the last two years behind only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Green. In the games that Baldwin missed all/most of in 2018, Lockett played in the slot on 59.4 percent of his snaps. His efficiency will have a hard time remaining as high as it was in 2018, but his increased snaps in the slot can help make up for it
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
Depending on the format, he was typically 4-5 FAN PTS better per week than the No. 2 overall fantasy QB - sure, regression is bound to happen, but don't expect too much - special talent, great system, ample weaponsHe had a perfect passer rating on his targets, and he was No. 1 in FAN PTS per target - with Doug Baldwin gone, he should see a fair amount more targets (100+?) this season as clear go-to guy
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
Fantasy owners don't need a reminder of just how dynamic Mahomes was last year, as he threw for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns. There will be regression, simply because there has to be, but he has plenty of room to regress and still finish with elite numbers and as the top fantasy quarterback in the game. Waiting on quarterback is always the right play. But with Tyreek Hill back in the fold, there's no doubt that Mahomes should be the top one off the board.Lockett really came into his own last year, scoring 10 touchdowns and setting career-highs across the board. With Doug Baldwin gone and with few other (healthy) options at receiver, the Seahawks are likely to lean heavily on Lockett in the passing game. But with how much Seattle runs the ball, Lockett will need to again pile on the touchdowns to come near the value he provided last year. As the No. 1 option with an elite quarterback, however, Lockett is an easy WR2.
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
Overall QB1. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to be too cute. 
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
In terms of raw fantasy points, Mahomes broke the historical quarterback record, but when you compare him to the QB13, or above replacement value, he was merely 20th of all-time. While that is still great, of course, it was driven by an astronomical and unsustainable touchdown rate. Regress that to the expected mean and there is no reason you should be considering him in the 2nd, let alone 1st round. If he drops to the late 3rd, however, that would be a strong value.Lockett had just 70 targets last year and before Baldwin came back, he was the secondary target behind Brandon Marshall. Lockett isn't primary weapon, nor will he likely become one. He is still a WR3, but is being vastly overdrafted with over optimistic expectations about his transition to an entirely different type of receiver.
Derek Lofland
FantasyPros
Mahomes did score 417 fantasy points last year, but quarterbacks rarely duplicate historic seasons. I think Mahomes will have a great year, but I do not think he reaches 417 fantasy points again.Lockett showed a lot of promise last year with 57 receptions for 965 yards and 10 touchdowns. He is the lead receiver in Seattle at this point and he should have WR2 upside.
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
The #1 QB in True Throw Value last season, Mahomes (unsurprisingly) had the most valuable throw of any QB last season. Even with regression, he can still be a top-3 QB. However, he's being taken too early in drafts.Lockett had 965 yards and 10 TDs on ONLY 90 TARGETS last season. Lockett will now mostly to be a slot WR, taking the place of Baldwin (played there 60% last year when Baldwin was out). Lockett led the league with a 89.7 catch% in the slot last season and Doug Baldwin was being drafted in the 2nd/3rd round not too long ago in the same role. Wilson is one of the most efficient passers in the league - 2nd in True Throw Value last season - so give me his #1 WR even in a run-heavy O.
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
I won't actually be investing an early round pick on a QB, but Mahomes remains the guy if you plan on doing so. 
Kyle Yates
The Fantasy Footballers
Without Tyreek Hill, it's hard to imagine 5,000 yards and 50 Touchdowns again from Patrick Mahomes. With that being said, he's still projected to be my Top QB this season and he should be the first QB off the board in fantasy drafts. 
Nick Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
My exact ranking on Mahomes is going to depend on whether or not Hill is suspended. If he is, then I don't see how you can draft Mahomes. If he isn't, then his ADP is likely to rise to a point where you can's draft him. So either way, it's a no for me. I understand that he just posted over 5,000 yards and 50 TD's. But I also know that he just had one of the best years ever in terms of passing TD percentage...and that he's likely to see at least a little regression in that category. But the main reason for not drafting him is the opportunity cost. He's the top ranked QB this season...no one is going to deny that. But this season has the single deepest QB pool in the history of the NFL. There are around 25 QB's that you can make the case for starting in a 12 team league. Will all of them pan out? Of course not. But there are going to be QB's going in the 12th round and later that finish within a point per game of the top tier. It's just not worth spending such a high pick at a position where there are so many elite options going at the end of drafts. And this is especially true if Hill were to miss any number of games.Lockett is going to be an interesting player to watch this preseason. I can't tell yet where his ADP ends up, but I have a feeling a lot will depend on how D.K. Metcalf does during the preseason. If Metcalf looks bad, and Lockett is clearly the top option, then I expect his ADP to fall somewhere in the 4th round. If that's the case, then I'll likely pass. He's not a bad pick in that range, but it takes away a lot of his upside. Remember, last season Wilson had a perfect passer rating when targeting him, so there's going to be regression on a per play basis. He currently holds the 25th highest projection according to my model, and I'm comfortable drafting Lockett in the mid to late 5th round. Unfortunately, he's usually not still on the board.