Who Should I Draft?

Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Russell Wilson
QB - SEA
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
QB - HOU
Deshaun Watson
 
 
Expert
Recommendation
83%
Recommended by
90 of 108 experts
17%
Recommended by
18 of 108 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 2# 5-
Best Rank# 1# 1-
Worst Rank# 8# 14-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total347.8168.8-
Avg Game21.724.1-
Avg Projection299.2281.0-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank163-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
    
Expert Ranks 
Russell WilsonDeshaun WatsonAdd Player
    
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#2#8-
    
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5 d
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07/09
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07/07
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4 d
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06/28
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06/21
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06/19
#2#4-
    
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05/23
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05/23
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04/05
#2#8-
    
  Russell Wilson
QB - SEA
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
QB - HOU
Deshaun Watson
2018 Schedule 
Week 1 at DEN at NE
Week 2 at CHI at TEN
Week 3 vs. DAL vs. NYG
Week 4 at ARI at IND
Week 5 vs. LAR vs. DAL
Week 6 at OAK vs. BUF
Week 7BYE WEEK at JAC
Week 8 at DET vs. MIA
Week 9 vs. LAC at DEN
Week 10 at LARBYE WEEK
Week 11 vs. GB at WAS
Week 12 at CAR vs. TEN
Week 13 vs. SF vs. CLE
Week 14 vs. MIN vs. IND
Week 15 at SF at NYJ
Week 16 vs. KC at PHI
Week 17 vs. ARI vs. JAC
  Russell Wilson
QB - SEA
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
QB - HOU
Deshaun Watson
Passing
   
Pass Att533.3508.8
Pass Cmp328.4308.4
Pass Yards3,828.03,696.5
Pass TDs26.326.1
Ints12.316.0
   
Rushing
   
Rush Attempts90.476.2
Rush Yards502.4450.7
Rush TDs3.23.4
   
Misc
   
Fumbles2.02.2
   
Points
   
Fantasy Points299.2281.0
   
  Russell Wilson
QB - SEA
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
QB - HOU
Deshaun Watson
2017 Points 
Week 18.35.7
Week 215.317.7
Week 333.520.1
Week 427.633.7
Week 511.535.5
Week 623.3
Week 726.4
Week 835.132.8
Week 923.6
Week 1019.4
Week 1130.9
Week 1223.6
Week 1324.2
Week 1421.8
Week 1511.6
Week 1614.6
Week 1720.4
  Russell Wilson
QB - SEA
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
QB - HOU
Deshaun Watson
Expert 
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
Once you get down to around the No. 50 overall pick, the sure things are gone, so why not take one of the elite players at his position? Wilson has now finished as a top-three quarterback in three of the last four seasons and has never fallen out of the top-12 quarterbacks in any of his six seasons. His defense is as bad as its ever been, which should force him to partake in some shootouts that never seemed to happen before. Despite the elite defense that was being played, Wilson has posted QB1 numbers in 47.9 percent of his games, including a career-high 68.8 percent of games in 2017. He offers safety and upside, which is rare at the position.Just how unrepeatable was Watson's 2017 season? Well, since 2000, just four other quarterbacks have thrown a touchdown on more than 7.9 percent of their passes. We're talking about the entire careers of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers. Watson's rate was 9.3 percent in 2017. Looking at all quarterbacks in 2017, only he and Carson Wentz threw a touchdown on more than 6.7 percent of their attempts, which should give you all you need to know. In fact, you should expect his touchdown percentage to be cut in half (and it'd still be good). He's still among the top quartebacks because of his rushing ability, but don't pay for last year's production, which was still just essentially five games worth.
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
Wilson has been a top-three fantasy QB in three of the past four seasons. Even without weapons or an offensive line, he is a safe bet to deliver once again. With that said, the difference between him and Rodgers is substantial enough that you ought to wait several rounds to even consider Wilson.Over a five-game sample size, Watson was spectacular. Well, at least his 9.3% TD-rate was. Everything else was mediocre. The TD-rate will come crashing down for sure, just as every other inflated one has in the history of the NFL. Plus, bouncing back from a severe injury while behind a lousy offensive line isn't as easy as some have made it seem.
Chet Gresham
WalterFootball
Wilson has such great upside, even in games where he isn't at his best, that I find it hard to not rank him second at the moment. I would love to see the Seahawks add some receiving weapons and offensive linemen, but no matter what, Wilson gets the job done on many fronts.Am I too high on Watson? Very possible, but if you are going to go after a quarterback early, they sure better have league-winning upside, and Watson sure has that. He led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game last season and showed me enough to risk an earlier-round pick.
Rich Piazza
Fantasy Shed
The Seahawks didn't do much to improve that offensive line in free agency or the draft. Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson just don't get me excited, and the wide receiver group is more or less the same. However, his rushing ability gives him a significant boost in the rankings.  
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
Nobody amassed more standard fantasy points than Wilson, who notched a full three points per game more than QB runner-up Cam Newton. Although it's his first QB1 finish, he has cracked the top five three times and has never finished lower than 11 during his six-year career. Wilson's streak of attempting more passes every year is in jeopardy with Seattle poised to rediscover its rushing roots behind rookie Rashad Penny, but the Legion of Boom's demise may force the Seahawks into more shootouts. Wilson's legs (545.8 rushing yards per season), precision (2.0 career INT %) and durability (he has never missed a game) make him an elite contributor worth grabbing if everyone else is ignoring quarterbacks early. Watson would have topped the overall scoring leaderboards in all formats if he stayed healthy and maintained his ridiculous 24.1 PPG pace. But we don't live in that reality. There's no guarantee he returns at full form from a torn ACL, and there's no way he would have sustained a 9.3 TD %-Aaron Rodgers has a career clip of 6.4-over a larger sample size. Although the ceiling is undeniable, there's too much health and regression concerns to draft him over other superstars in the fourth or fifth round.
Staff Rankings
QB List
Considering the fact that the Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in football, it's pretty amazing Russell Wilson had the season he had. That line isn't likely to be any different this season unfortunately, and while Duane Brown is a solid left tackle (the most important position on the line, in my opinion), he's also got to deal with having Ethan Pocic at the left guard position who is not good, as well as D.J. Fluker who's had some major problems in the pass blocking game. All that being said, Wilson is absurdly talented and is amazing at evading free rushers. Last year, his passer rating was actually better in a blitz than not (109.3 vs. 90.7). Considering his offensive line, that's just downright impressive. If he could put up the numbers he did last year with the line he had, I don't see any reason he can't do it again. I do have on concern though - last year no quarterback through the ball into contested red zone situations than Russell Wilson, and he was largely successful thanks to Jimmy Graham, finishing the year with 23 touchdown passes in the red zone (third-best in the league). Graham is gone now, and he's replaced by Ed Dickson, who's not even remotely as good as Graham, so I could see that detracting from Wilson's value.If you extrapolate the numbers Deshaun Watson put up over just six and a half games over a full season, you get an absolutely absurd season. I'm talking over 4,000 passing yards, more than 40 touchdowns, and over 600 rushing yards. Now, look, is he going to do that this year? I don't think so. But, he's been working out like nuts this offseason and is going to be healthy-however the fact that he's coming off an ACL injury is definitely a concern. I think he'll be healthy, but I wouldn't be shocked if the injury does affect him. However, given the absurd talent he showed off this past year and his rushing ability, Watson should be set for some serious fantasy goodness. I do have some concerns about his accuracy, however. Watson showed last year that he has the ability to make some impressive throws in tight coverage, but he was inconsistent. He also made some pretty bad decisions that resulted in turnovers. Still, the talent is there for him to be a major fantasy contributor.
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
Wilson averaged 25.7 fantasy points per game and he should still be the top player in this offense, even with a new offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer. He did lose TE Jimmy Graham and WR Paul Richardson in free agency, but his ability to run the football still keeps him in the elite fantasy quarterback discussion. Watson average a league-high 28.6 fantasy points per game at quarterback before tearing his ACL. He could be the top fantasy quarterback in 2018, but I think the four names ahead of him are safer, as we only have a 7-game body of work to judge Watson.
Nick Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
 DeShaun Watson had a 9.3% TD rate last season. The season Manning threw 55 TD's his TD rate was 8.3%. When Brady threw for 50 TD's his TD rate was 8.7%. Rodgers was up at 9% this one timeā€¦but his career average is 6.4%. In fact, Brady's career average is 5.5% and Manning has a career average of 5.7%. DESHAUN WATSON HAD A 9.3% TD RATE LAST SEASON. If we pretend that he's as good as Aaron Rodgers (he's not) then that puts him at 13 passing TD's instead of 19. That bumps him down to third in points per game, in a very down year for QB production. And that's assuming that he's Aaron Rodgers...which...HE'S NOT. Watson is going to see regression towards the mean this season. He was also on pace for 18 interceptions which would have been the second most in the league. Watson get's points with his legs which is great. However, so do other QB's, and there is always the chance that they limit that part of his game to keep him healthy. He's just being drafted so high and has such clear regression coming that I can't see a case for drafting him in any format. My ranking of QB 9 feels extremely fair
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Wilson was the top dog last year but he lost a red-zone beast and one of his top WRs. I still respect his upside and dual threat ability, but I'm not drafting him to be that same guy in 2018.Watson looked like a revelation last year but you have to wonder about the knee and if he's a one-year wonder. His upside is insane but he may be getting overdrafted
Jody Smith
FantasyPros
Last year's top-ranked QB will be the first QB picked in plenty of leagues. Wilson may have to rely on his arm more this season, as Seattle's once-dominant defense looks to take a major step back. Bill O'Brien's return and positive reports of Watson being ahead of schedule on his recovery make him an intriguing two-way threat with the position's top upside, as witnessed by Watson's amazing 2017 showing.