Who Should I Draft?
Sony Michel or Patrick Mahomes
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Experts' Pick | |||
| Sony Michel RB - NE  | Patrick Mahomes QB - KC  |  | |
Expert |
58% Recommended by 91 of 157 experts |
42% Recommended by 66 of 157 experts |
Add Player |
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| Rankings | |||
| ECR | # 29 | # 34 | - |
| Best Rank | # 14 | # 7 | - |
| Worst Rank | # 84 | # 65 | - |
| Fantasy Points | |||
| Season Total | 132.1 | 417.0 | - |
| Avg Game | 10.2 | 26.1 | - |
| Schedule | |||
| SOS Rank | 4 | 32 | - |
| Misc | |||
| Injury Alert | ‐ | ‐ | - |
| Expert Ranks | |||
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Sony Michel | Patrick Mahomes | Add Player |
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| Sony Michel RB - NE | Patrick Mahomes QB - KC | |
| 2019 Schedule | ||
| Week 1 | vs. PIT | at JAC |
| Week 2 | at MIA | at OAK |
| Week 3 | vs. NYJ | vs. BAL |
| Week 4 | at BUF | at DET |
| Week 5 | at WAS | vs. IND |
| Week 6 | vs. NYG | vs. HOU |
| Week 7 | at NYJ | at DEN |
| Week 8 | vs. CLE | vs. GB |
| Week 9 | at BAL | vs. MIN |
| Week 10 | BYE WEEK | at TEN |
| Week 11 | at PHI | at LAC |
| Week 12 | vs. DAL | BYE WEEK |
| Week 13 | at HOU | vs. OAK |
| Week 14 | vs. KC | at NE |
| Week 15 | at CIN | vs. DEN |
| Week 16 | vs. BUF | at CHI |
| Week 17 | vs. MIA | vs. LAC |
| Sony Michel RB - NE | Patrick Mahomes QB - KC | |
| 2018 Points | ||
| Week 1 | ‐ | 28.3 |
| Week 2 | 4.1 | 38.8 |
| Week 3 | 4.9 | 25.3 |
| Week 4 | 17.2 | 22.9 |
| Week 5 | 17.0 | 15.8 |
| Week 6 | 22.6 | 27.0 |
| Week 7 | 1.5 | 32.8 |
| Week 8 | ‐ | 26.0 |
| Week 9 | ‐ | 26.8 |
| Week 10 | 3.1 | 20.1 |
| Week 11 | ‐ | 35.9 |
| Week 12 | 20.5 | ‐ |
| Week 13 | 7.0 | 33.0 |
| Week 14 | 5.7 | 20.8 |
| Week 15 | 5.9 | 18.0 |
| Week 16 | 17.6 | 28.2 |
| Week 17 | 5.0 | 17.3 |
| Sony Michel RB - NE | Patrick Mahomes QB - KC | |
| Expert | ||
| Mike Tagliere FantasyPros | It was a solid rookie year for Michel, who finished as the RB28 despite missing three full games. The issue with expecting a massive jump in production is his lack of usage in the passing game (just seven receptions in 13 games), and the third-round draft pick of Damien Harris, as he's a threat to steal some early-down work. Still, Michel should provide RB2 value as long as he's healthy | Yes, Mahomes is coming off the best fantasy season of all time for a quarterback. Yes, he's going to have some regression. He threw a touchdown on 8.6 percent of his passes in 2018, the seventh-highest mark of all-time. Here's the list of quarterbacks who are ahead of them, included with their touchdown rate in that season, as well as the following season: Peyton Manning (9.9 to 6.2), Ken Stabler (9.3 to 6.8), Deshaun Watson (9.3 to 5.1), Aaron Rodgers (9.0 to 7.1), Tom Brady (8.7 to 5.0), Mark Rypien (8.7 to 4.6). Don't pay for last year's stats |
| Brandon Funston The Athletic | Admittedly, there's some fear of his balky knee, and a little usage uncertainty with Belichick's history of pulling the backfield strings, but his preseason's been strong and the backfield is lucrative (NE top 6 in RB half-PPR FAN PTS each of past 4 seasons) | Depending on the format, he was typically 4-5 FAN PTS better per week than the No. 2 overall fantasy QB - sure, regression is bound to happen, but don't expect too much - special talent, great system, ample weapons |
| Kevin Roberts Breaking Football | Michel was great last year, but he's had some health questions and New England has approximately one thousand running backs. He should be higher, but I can't do it. | I won't actually be investing an early round pick on a QB, but Mahomes remains the guy if you plan on doing so. |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | Michel dealt with a preseason knee injury that bothered him some during the season, but he came on during the fantasy (and real-life) playoffs, showing his upside. When the Patriots spent a third-round pick on Damien Harris, fantasy owners got worried, but Harris reportedly has not gotten many reps this summer. The backfield in New England is still crowded with James White and Rex Burkhead, but with no Rob Gronkowksi, the Patriots are likely to lean on the run a bit more. That makes Michel an RB2, though one that is better in standard formats. | Fantasy owners don't need a reminder of just how dynamic Mahomes was last year, as he threw for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns. There will be regression, simply because there has to be, but he has plenty of room to regress and still finish with elite numbers and as the top fantasy quarterback in the game. Waiting on quarterback is always the right play. But with Tyreek Hill back in the fold, there's no doubt that Mahomes should be the top one off the board. |
| Michael Petropoulos BRoto Fantasy | Check out my article on BRotofantasy.com regarding Michel's inflated ADP. He was very much a game script RB with no passing game involvement last season and there is nothing that says that will not remain the same this season. He also has degenerative knee issues and has never played even half the offensive snaps in a game. | Overall QB1. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to be too cute. |
| Bobby Sylvester FantasyPros | Sony has plummeted down draft boards with the drafting of Damien Harris and multiple reports about concerns revolving Michel's knee. These are both scary for fantasy owners, but the price has now dropped low enough that you can afford to take a risk on someone with legitimate top 10 running back upside in this great Patriots' offense. | In terms of raw fantasy points, Mahomes broke the historical quarterback record, but when you compare him to the QB13, or above replacement value, he was merely 20th of all-time. While that is still great, of course, it was driven by an astronomical and unsustainable touchdown rate. Regress that to the expected mean and there is no reason you should be considering him in the 2nd, let alone 1st round. If he drops to the late 3rd, however, that would be a strong value. |
| Derek Lofland FantasyPros | Michel had a breakout postseason and that could carry over to a strong 2019 season. He does have some knee issues, but he should still be a solid RB3 with RB2 upside in 2019. | Mahomes did score 417 fantasy points last year, but quarterbacks rarely duplicate historic seasons. I think Mahomes will have a great year, but I do not think he reaches 417 fantasy points again. |
| Jason Petropoulos BRoto Fantasy | The #1 QB in True Throw Value last season, Mahomes (unsurprisingly) had the most valuable throw of any QB last season. Even with regression, he can still be a top-3 QB. However, he's being taken too early in drafts. | |
| Sean Koerner The Action Network | chronic knee issues mean he could miss games. Damien Harris puts pressure on him. not ideal in any sort of PPR. he's more valuable in Best Ball as he will consolidate his value into several games he goes off | |
| Nick Zylak Fantasy Football Advice | Honestly, I can't justify drafting Sony this season. Not only did the Patriots draft another RB early this season, but his knee is a concern. He's suffered a torn ACL, a fractured shoulder blade, multiple ankle sprains, a fractured forearm and three separate knee strains. Sony, unsurprisingly, has the second highest chance of injury this season according to sports injury predictor. You can also add volume reduction to his risk. We know that White is going to get most of the passing down work, and that Harris is going to take some of the early down work away from him. This backfield is very similar to that of Washington. Assuming everyone stays healthy, Sony isn't going to pay off his ADP. He would need a Damien Harris injury to be anything more than a TD upside FLEX play. Yet he's being drafted as a mid range RB 2. Save yourself the headache and just stay away from Sony this season. | My exact ranking on Mahomes is going to depend on whether or not Hill is suspended. If he is, then I don't see how you can draft Mahomes. If he isn't, then his ADP is likely to rise to a point where you can's draft him. So either way, it's a no for me. I understand that he just posted over 5,000 yards and 50 TD's. But I also know that he just had one of the best years ever in terms of passing TD percentage...and that he's likely to see at least a little regression in that category. But the main reason for not drafting him is the opportunity cost. He's the top ranked QB this season...no one is going to deny that. But this season has the single deepest QB pool in the history of the NFL. There are around 25 QB's that you can make the case for starting in a 12 team league. Will all of them pan out? Of course not. But there are going to be QB's going in the 12th round and later that finish within a point per game of the top tier. It's just not worth spending such a high pick at a position where there are so many elite options going at the end of drafts. And this is especially true if Hill were to miss any number of games. |
| Kyle Yates The Fantasy Footballers | Without Tyreek Hill, it's hard to imagine 5,000 yards and 50 Touchdowns again from Patrick Mahomes. With that being said, he's still projected to be my Top QB this season and he should be the first QB off the board in fantasy drafts. | |
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