Trey Lance or Derek Carr
Who Should I Draft?
Experts' Pick | |||
Trey Lance QB - SF ![]() Trey Lance QB - SF | Derek Carr QB - LV ![]() Derek Carr QB - LV |   | |
Expert |
59% Recommended by 69 of 116 experts |
41% Recommended by 47 of 116 experts |
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Rankings | |||
ECR | # 13 | # 14 | - |
Best Rank | # 7 | # 10 | - |
Worst Rank | # 19 | # 21 | - |
Fantasy Points | |||
Season Total | 67.0 | 286.0 | - |
Avg Game | 11.2 | 15.9 | - |
Avg Projection | 302.8 | 287.6 | - |
Schedule | |||
SOS Rank | 7 | 25 | - |
Misc | |||
Injury Alert | ‐ | ‐ | - |
Expert Ranks | |||
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Trey Lance | Derek Carr | Add Player |
14 h | #11 | #15 | - |
16 h | #8 | #13 | - |
16 h | #18 | #14 | - |
17 h | #14 | #15 | - |
22 h | #14 | #23 | - |
1 d | #12 | #14 | - |
2 d | #9 | #13 | - |
2 d | #15 | #14 | - |
2 d | #21 | #18 | - |
2 d | #12 | #14 | - |
2 d | #10 | #14 | - |
2 d | #10 | #14 | - |
2 d | #19 | #14 | - |
2 d | #14 | #13 | - |
3 d | #15 | #14 | - |
3 d | #14 | #16 | - |
3 d | #13 | #14 | - |
3 d | #14 | #16 | - |
3 d | #15 | #13 | - |
3 d | #14 | #13 | - |
3 d | #11 | #17 | - |
3 d | #13 | #14 | - |
3 d | #11 | #12 | - |
3 d | #10 | #14 | - |
3 d | #14 | #13 | - |
4 d | #9 | #13 | - |
4 d | #16 | #13 | - |
4 d | #14 | #13 | - |
4 d | #8 | #18 | - |
4 d | #17 | #13 | - |
4 d | #17 | #13 | - |
4 d | #15 | #17 | - |
4 d | #15 | #13 | - |
4 d | #7 | #14 | - |
4 d | #15 | #11 | - |
5 d | #13 | #18 | - |
5 d | #12 | #15 | - |
5 d | #9 | #14 | - |
5 d | #11 | #14 | - |
5 d | #16 | #13 | - |
5 d | #18 | #13 | - |
5 d | #14 | #13 | - |
5 d | #15 | #13 | - |
6 d | #13 | #14 | - |
6 d | #7 | #17 | - |
6 d | #13 | #14 | - |
6 d | #14 | #11 | - |
7 d | #10 | #21 | - |
7 d | #13 | #14 | - |
7 d | #13 | #14 | - |
1 w | #7 | #16 | - |
1 w | #12 | #14 | - |
1 w | #18 | #12 | - |
1 w | #11 | #16 | - |
1 w | #15 | #12 | - |
1 w | #13 | #21 | - |
1 w | #19 | #16 | - |
1 w | #14 | #13 | - |
1 w | #17 | #12 | - |
1 w | #8 | #15 | - |
1 w | #14 | #15 | - |
1 w | #19 | #13 | - |
1 w | #18 | #16 | - |
1 w | #13 | #14 | - |
1 w | #12 | #13 | - |
1 w | #18 | #13 | - |
1 w | #13 | #20 | - |
1 w | #12 | #14 | - |
2 w | #7 | #15 | - |
2 w | #17 | #12 | - |
2 w | #11 | #18 | - |
2 w | #15 | #14 | - |
2 w | #10 | #16 | - |
2 w | #16 | #10 | - |
2 w | #19 | #10 | - |
2 w | #13 | #14 | - |
2 w | #12 | #14 | - |
2 w | #17 | #13 | - |
2 w | #13 | #14 | - |
2 w | #18 | #12 | - |
2 w | #10 | #15 | - |
2 w | #9 | #16 | - |
2 w | #13 | #12 | - |
2 w | #6 | #14 | - |
2 w | #12 | #14 | - |
2 w | #17 | #13 | - |
2 w | #11 | #14 | - |
2 w | #13 | #15 | - |
2 w | #19 | #14 | - |
3 w | #13 | #15 | - |
3 w | #13 | #14 | - |
3 w | #14 | #21 | - |
3 w | #9 | #13 | - |
4 w | #13 | #16 | - |
4 w | #16 | #14 | - |
4 w | #15 | #12 | - |
4 w | #14 | #20 | - |
4 w | #10 | #13 | - |
4 w | #17 | #14 | - |
06/01 | #14 | #15 | - |
06/01 | #10 | #15 | - |
05/31 | #12 | #15 | - |
05/28 | #14 | #15 | - |
05/27 | #8 | #17 | - |
05/25 | #15 | #13 | - |
05/24 | #16 | #12 | - |
05/17 | #18 | #15 | - |
05/16 | #14 | #15 | - |
05/14 | #18 | #14 | - |
05/24 | #15 | #12 | - |
05/11 | #13 | #15 | - |
06/02 | #33 | #12 | - |
05/06 | #14 | #15 | - |
05/02 | #13 | #14 | - |
05/01 | #15 | #13 | - |
2 w | #12 | #16 | - |
Trey Lance QB - SF ![]() Trey Lance QB - SF | Derek Carr QB - LV ![]() Derek Carr QB - LV | |
2022 Schedule | ||
Week 1 | at CHI | at LAC |
Week 2 | vs. SEA | vs. ARI |
Week 3 | at DEN | at TEN |
Week 4 | vs. LAR | vs. DEN |
Week 5 | at CAR | at KC |
Week 6 | at ATL | BYE WEEK |
Week 7 | vs. KC | vs. HOU |
Week 8 | at LAR | at NO |
Week 9 | BYE WEEK | at JAC |
Week 10 | vs. LAC | vs. IND |
Week 11 | at ARI | at DEN |
Week 12 | vs. NO | at SEA |
Week 13 | vs. MIA | vs. LAC |
Week 14 | vs. TB | at LAR |
Week 15 | at SEA | vs. NE |
Week 16 | vs. WAS | at PIT |
Week 17 | at LV | vs. SF |
Week 18 | vs. ARI | vs. KC |
Trey Lance QB - SF ![]() Trey Lance QB - SF | Derek Carr QB - LV ![]() Derek Carr QB - LV | |
Passing | ||
Pass Att | 488.9 | 598.5 |
Pass Cmp | 305.4 | 403.2 |
Pass Yards | 3,676.2 | 4,522.6 |
Pass TDs | 24.0 | 27.3 |
Ints | 13.7 | 13.1 |
Rushing | ||
Rush Attempts | 112.9 | 39.1 |
Rush Yards | 506.6 | 133.4 |
Rush TDs | 4.5 | 1.2 |
Misc | ||
Fumbles | 2.0 | 4.9 |
Points | ||
Fantasy Points | 302.8 | 287.6 |
Trey Lance QB - SF ![]() Trey Lance QB - SF | Derek Carr QB - LV ![]() Derek Carr QB - LV | |
2021 Points | ||
Week 1 | 4.4 | 25.0 |
Week 2 | ‐ | 24.2 |
Week 3 | 6.1 | 22.2 |
Week 4 | 20.4 | 15.4 |
Week 5 | 15.6 | 8.2 |
Week 6 | ‐ | 21.5 |
Week 7 | ‐ | 20.0 |
Week 8 | ‐ | ‐ |
Week 9 | ‐ | 12.3 |
Week 10 | ‐ | 19.2 |
Week 11 | 0.4 | 9.6 |
Week 12 | ‐ | 21.0 |
Week 13 | ‐ | 12.4 |
Week 14 | ‐ | 11.5 |
Week 15 | ‐ | 11.1 |
Week 16 | ‐ | 9.5 |
Week 17 | 20.1 | 12.2 |
Week 18 | ‐ | 15.3 |
Total | 67.0 | 286.0 |
Average | 11.2 | 15.9 |
Trey Lance QB - SF ![]() Trey Lance QB - SF | Derek Carr QB - LV ![]() Derek Carr QB - LV | |
Expert | ||
Justin Lampkin Clock Management Fantasy Football | This is a player that will be a rollercoasters with some very high point games and some very low point games. I don't like these players unless I'm in best ball formats. | |
Andrew Erickson FantasyPros | Trey Lance is falling in best ball ADP because of reports surfacing that he is underwhelming at OTAs and because Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster. But after the 49ers beat reporters butchered the Trey Sermon situation last season and the 49ers' massive investment in Lance last year, I view this situation as an easy buy-low scenario. Garoppolo's shoulder surgery is the reason he hasn't been traded. Once he is deemed healthy, I'd presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position. Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers' first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game. | The biggest winner in the aftermath of the Davante Adams trade is Derek Carr. He now has the luxury of throwing to a surplus of offensive weapons including arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in his old college teammate. Let's not forget that when Carr had everybody available last season, the Raiders quarterback ranked second in the NFL in passing yards and 15th in fantasy points per game. However, his ceiling was limited due to his lack of mobility and weaponry; Carr did not finish better than a top-8 quarterback at any point in 2021. But Adams figures to provide Carr with a red-zone weapon like no other that will unlock his fantasy ceiling. He's the exact positive touchdown regression that should launch Carr's fantasy numbers. Carr's 3.7 TD rate in 2021 was below his career average (4.3). And his 23 total passing touchdowns were seven below expectation. Fully anticipate Carr throwing for 30-plus laser scores bare minimum with Adams at his disposal. Every quarterback last season that threw for at least 30 touchdowns finished inside the top-10 in 2021. |
Derek Brown FantasyPros | Every day that Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the 49ers' roster, it threatens Trey Lance's starting spot, but currently, I'm still projecting him to start this season. In the brief two-game sample of Lance starting last year, we got a glimpse at the biggest factor for his fantasy ceiling: the rushing upside. In those two games, Lance averaged 12 carries and 60 yards on the ground as the QB20 and QB10 in weekly scoring. Even with Garoppolo at the helm, the 49ers were sixth in EPA per play and second in yards per play. Lance's legs give him a top 12-15 fantasy quarterback floor with top-five upside should he light it up through the air. | |
Wolf of Roto Street Roto Street Journal | Rumblings that Jimmy G may start ahead of him if not traded are terrifying. One of the most overrated early players in Best Ball | Now gets to throw to the best WR in the game, division looks like shootout central. Such a safe QB1 now |
Pat Fitzmaurice FantasyPros | The 49ers are expected to install Lance as their starting quarterback in 2022. The No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft, Lance is a gifted athlete with a live arm and the speed to be an impact runner. He'll have no shortage of pass-catching weaponry with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Experience is the missing ingredient, and most people are going to rank Lance too low simply because he doesn't have a track record. The upside here is intoxicating. | Carr threw for 4,804 yards in 2021, beating his previous single-season high by 701 yards. However, he threw only 23 TD passes in 17 games and ranked outside the top 15 among QBs in fantasy points per game. Carr has reached 30 TD passes only once in eight NFL seasons, and he doesn't run much. The addition of WR Davante Adams, Carr's former college teammate at Fresno State, raises the ceiling here. Still, it's probably best to view Carr as a midrange QB2. |
Derek Lofland FantasyPros | Lance feels like he will be the starter in 2022 and his running ability makes him a candidate to have a breakout 2022 fantasy season on one of the better offenses in the NFL. | Carr had a very nice season with 4,618 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns in the fantasy season. The Raiders should be a good offense under Josh McDaniels and Carr has QB1 upside in a good offensive system that became even more dangerous with the addition of Davante Adams. |