Who Should I Draft?

Tyreek Hill or Adam Thielen

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
 
 
Expert
Recommendation
56%
Recommended by
59 of 106 experts
44%
Recommended by
47 of 106 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 13# 14-
Best Rank# 7# 5-
Worst Rank# 27# 29-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total148.8164.2-
Avg Game9.310.9-
Avg Projection141.9149.1-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank1032-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
    
Expert Ranks 
Adam ThielenTyreek HillAdd Player
    
George KurtzG. Kurtz
RotoExperts
6 h
#12#10-
    
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Yahoo! Sports
7 h
#7#16-
    
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Yahoo! Sports
7 h
#13#12-
    
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The Athletic
8 h
#15#13-
    
Kevin RobertsK. Roberts
Breaking Football
12 h
#9#16-
    
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The Football Girl
13 h
#12#17-
    
Kyle AugustK. August
FF Fellas
13 h
#24#12-
    
Michael FlorioM. Florio
RotoExperts
13 h
#12#15-
    
Seth McKinleyS. McKi...
FF Fellas
14 h
#26#19-
    
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The Athletic
14 h
#11#12-
    
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White Wolf Sports
17 h
#15#22-
    
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Fantasy Knuckleheads
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#15#13-
    
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Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
17 h
#11#15-
    
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Estadio Fantasy
18 h
#11#15-
    
Donald GibsonD. Gibson
Fantasy Fusion
19 h
#16#13-
    
Rich PiazzaR. Piazza
Fantasy Shed
20 h
#18#17-
    
Michael BellerM. Beller
Sports Illustrated
20 h
#16#19-
    
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The Quant Edge
21 h
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CBS Sports
22 h
#16#15-
    
Dave RichardD. Richard
CBS Sports
22 h
#15#11-
    
Andrew SeifterA. Seifter
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22 h
#20#11-
    
Jeff BoggisJ. Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
23 h
#10#15-
    
Andy BehrensA. Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
1 d
#11#13-
    
John PaulsenJ. Paulsen
4for4.com
1 d
#12#13-
    
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1 d
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1 d
#12#13-
    
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1 d
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1 d
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1 d
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Patrick ThormanP. Thorman
Pro Football Focus
1 d
#11#17-
    
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2 d
#9#13-
    
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2 d
#15#12-
    
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WalterFootball
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2 d
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Gridiron Experts
2 d
#11#10-
    
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Gridiron Experts
2 d
#14#12-
    
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Yahoo! Sports
2 d
#15#11-
    
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Fantasy Six Pack
2 d
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Davis MattekD. Mattek
Fantasy Insiders
2 d
#12#15-
    
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RTSports
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Ken ZalisK. Zalis
Pressbox
2 d
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FantasyOMatic
2 d
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Win My Fantasy League
2 d
#19#14-
    
Kevin WheelerK. Wheeler
NFL Mock
2 d
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Jason MooreJ. Moore
The Fantasy Footballers
3 d
#9#18-
    
Bobby SylvesterB. Sylv...
FantasyPros
3 d
#20#19-
    
Justin BooneJ. Boone
theScore
3 d
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Chris MeyersC. Meyers
Athlon Sports
3 d
#15#12-
    
Mike AlexanderM. Alex...
Friends With Fantasy Benefits
3 d
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Chris MeaneyC. Meaney
FNTSY Sports Network
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Derek BrownD. Brown
Gridiron Experts
3 d
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Tozzi BrothersT. Brot...
Legion Report
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Dariyan MayburyD. Maybury
Fantasy Football Advice
3 d
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Heath CummingsH. Cumm...
CBS Sports
3 d
#14#10-
    
Sablich BrothersS. Brot...
5th Down Fantasy
3 d
#10#17-
    
Nick MarianoN. Mariano
RotoBaller
3 d
#14#11-
    
Derek LoflandD. Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
4 d
#14#5-
    
Andrew GouldA. Gould
FantasyPros
4 d
#11#19-
    
Dominick PetrilloD. Petr...
Fantasy Hot Read
4 d
#12#15-
    
Matt CampM. Camp
Bleacher Report
4 d
#17#23-
    
Bill EnrightB. Enright
FFChamps
4 d
#11#13-
    
Andy HollowayA. Holl...
The Fantasy Footballers
4 d
#12#26-
    
Jack DelaneyJ. Delaney
Just Fantasy Football
4 d
#10#17-
    
Brandon MurchisonB. Murc...
RotoExperts
4 d
#14#13-
    
Dale DeMottD. DeMott
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
5 d
#10#12-
    
Dan ClasgensD. Clas...
Pro Football Focus
5 d
#11#15-
    
Corey ParsonC. Parson
RotoExperts
5 d
#12#14-
    
Pierre CamusP. Camus
RotoBaller
5 d
#11#10-
    
Jeff JohnsonJ. Johnson
Fantasy Insiders
5 d
#9#12-
    
Rudy GambleR. Gamble
Razzball
5 d
#7#17-
    
Heath CappsH. Capps
Fake Teams
6 d
#22#18-
    
Matthew HillM. Hill
DataForce Fantasy Football
6 d
#17#16-
    
Christian BritoC. Brito
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
6 d
#15#18-
    
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FFToday
7 d
#17#12-
    
Jason WillanJ. Willan
Gridiron Experts
7 d
#14#24-
    
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1 w
#9#14-
    
Greg SmithG. Smith
TwoQBs
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Kyle KontosK. Kontos
Double K Football
2 w
#13#14-
    
Dave McKayD. McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
2 w
#13#10-
    
Brad RichterB. Richter
Going For 2
2 w
#12#18-
    
Matthew BoweM. Bowe
Razzball
2 w
#11#13-
    
Mike WrightM. Wright
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2 w
#13#19-
    
Scott EngelS. Engel
RotoExperts
2 w
#14#10-
    
Jake ArthurJ. Arthur
Colts.com
2 w
#12#13-
    
Sean KoernerS. Koerner
The Action Network
2 w
#13#11-
    
Kevin HansonK. Hanson
EDSFootball
2 w
#11#10-
    
Dan HarrisD. Harris
FantasyPros
2 w
#10#14-
    
Jason LongfellowJ. Long...
Razzball
2 w
#9#17-
    
Jacob HubmanJ. Hubman
The Fantasy Headliners
2 w
#13#14-
    
Tim McCulloughT. McCu...
FantasyPros
3 w
#10#15-
    
James RapienJ. Rapien
Get Sports Info
3 w
#12#13-
    
David GonosD. Gonos
SoCalledFanEx
3 w
#14#12-
    
Scott SmithS. Smith
RotoViz
3 w
#11#13-
    
Michael TomlinM. Tomlin
SoCalledFanEx
3 w
#10#11-
    
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Pyromaniac
4 w
#12#16-
    
Anthony StaggsA. Staggs
Pyromaniac
4 w
#10#19-
    
SmittyS.
SleeperU
07/09
#18#12-
    
Anthony AmicoA. Amico
RotoViz
07/07
#5#18-
    
Mitchell RenzM. Renz
Gridiron Experts
5 d
#13#11-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
ScoutFantasy
4 w
#12#10-
    
Kelly SmelserK. Smelser
Punch Drunk Wonderland
05/23
#13#11-
    
Nick VertucciN. Vert...
Sundays Are For Football
05/23
#12#11-
    
Scott BarrettS. Barrett
Pro Football Focus
04/05
#13#9-
    
  Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
2018 Schedule 
Week 1 vs. SF at LAC
Week 2 at GB at PIT
Week 3 vs. BUF vs. SF
Week 4 at LAR at DEN
Week 5 at PHI vs. JAC
Week 6 vs. ARI at NE
Week 7 at NYJ vs. CIN
Week 8 vs. NO vs. DEN
Week 9 vs. DET at CLE
Week 10BYE WEEK vs. ARI
Week 11 at CHI at LAR
Week 12 vs. GBBYE WEEK
Week 13 at NE at OAK
Week 14 at SEA vs. BAL
Week 15 vs. MIA vs. LAC
Week 16 at DET at SEA
Week 17 vs. CHI vs. OAK
  Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Receiving
   
Receptions81.875.5
Rec Yards1,100.0989.2
Rec TDs5.66.0
   
Rushing
   
Rush Attempts1.315.5
Rush Yards6.893.5
Rush TDs0.00.9
   
Points
   
Fantasy Points141.9149.1
   
  Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
2017 Points 
Week 115.719.8
Week 22.44.9
Week 39.815.0
Week 43.93.5
Week 54.56.8
Week 69.72.5
Week 74.119.2
Week 815.81.8
Week 913.3
Week 1022.6
Week 1118.38.4
Week 128.95.4
Week 135.130.5
Week 1416.57.5
Week 153.014.8
Week 162.410.8
Week 176.1
  Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
2017 Targets 
Week 1108
Week 266
Week 388
Week 486
Week 586
Week 6137
Week 7128
Week 8106
Week 94
Week 1012
Week 1197
Week 121111
Week 1359
Week 14136
Week 1556
Week 1667
Week 177
  Adam Thielen
WR - MIN
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Expert 
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
Most don't realize how much of an effect that Pat Shurmur had on Thielen's career, as he catapulted him into a household fantasy name. He was 26 years old when he broke out, something that doesn't happen all that often. The move to John DiFilippo will change some things, as will the move to Kirk Cousins, who has taken more chances down the field than game-manager Case Keenum did. That would play more into Stefon Diggs' skill-set rather than Thielen's. I do expect him to be a reliable fantasy producer, but he's not going to finish with 143 targets again. While doing research for Boom, Bust, and Everything in Between, Thielen finished as a WR3 or better just 56.3 percent of the time despite all those targets. Even if he scores more touchdowns, his lost targets are going to hurt. It's clear that Tyreek Hill is among the most efficient wide receivers in the game, as his 11.3 yards per target in 2017 ranked first in the league among those with 70 or more targets. Not just that, but the closest player to him was Marvin Jones at 10.3 YPT (a whopping 9 percent difference). That number came up quite a bit from his 2016 total that was at 7.1 yards per target, so you might want to dial back those large expectations. The addition of Sammy Watkins isn't going to help him gain a higher target share, either, as they paid Watkins a generous $50 million. As high as you might be on Pat Mahomes, it's going to be incredibly hard for him to top Alex Smith's MVP-caliber 2017 season. There's regression coming for Hill, but his price does not reflect that. If you can snag him in the fourth-round, that's when you should feel okay with the risk.
Staff Rankings
QB List
"White Lightning" breaks into the top 10 this year as he managed to outpace Stefon Diggs in what was one of the best wide receiver duos in fantasy last year. Thielen's target share, great hands, and crisp routes made him the go-to receiver last year in a Minnesota offense that managed to get along just fine even without its star running back Dalvin Cook. Add in that extra Cook (certainly not too many here), the same stud defense, and Kirk Cousins under center, and you have the recipe for another stellar fantasy season from the breakout receiver.The fastest man in fantasy, Tyreek Hill paid handsomely those who drafted him, recording nearly 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns while adding in a punt return touchdown and some rushing yards from trick plays. Why then is Hill stuck at #14 on the rankings you ask? Two reasons: there's a new sheriff in Kansas City named Patrick Mahomes, and Brett Veach (the Chiefs GM, and yes I had to look it up) is coocoo for Cocoa Puffs. To go alongside the speedy Hill, Veach spent $48 million for three years of the perennially overrated Sammy Watkins. So not only does Hill now have to worry about forming a report with the rookie Mahomes, but he'll have Watkins and Chris Conley chomping at his heels for the targets that resident mad-man Travis Kelce doesn't get. Know the upside is real, but draft accordingly.
Chet Gresham
WalterFootball
The addition of Kirk Cousins can only help Thielen, who already had a strong season with Case Keenum under center.Hill had plenty of doubters coming into last season, but he proved that he could take on the role of a No. 1 receiver and thrive. He'll have Pat Mahomes as his quarterback this season, so there will be some more doubt cast on this upcoming season, but even if there are some major learning curves, Mahomes looks good enough to keep Hill as a strong fantasy receiver.
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
Volume takes precedent over efficiency in fantasy. Just look at Thielen, who enjoyed a breakout campaign (91 catches for 1,276 yards) by receiving 50 more targets than 2016. He averaged an identical 14.0 yards per reception and saw his catch % drop from 75 to 64.1, but a starting role propelled him to stardom. A slow finish (20 catches, 217 yards over final five games including the playoffs) causes some concern, and his WR11 ADP requires investors to pay for his ceiling following a WR12 campaign.Hill handled more volume than anticipated with 75 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven TDs. Yet each score stretched at least 30 yards, as he vanished inside the red zone with two touches. Patrick Mahomes has the arm to make more deep magic, but he won't match Alex Smith's precision. Sammy Watkins will also threaten Hill's pedestrian 19.3 % target share, so don't touch the 5'10" playmaker at his bloated No. 29 overall ADP.
Kevin Wheeler
NFL Mock
 Last year, Tyreek Hill (WR8) became the ONLY receiver since 2000 to finish as a fantasy WR1 (top-12) while seeing fewer than 20% of team targets and fewer than 10% of red-zone targets in his WR1 single-season. @GrahamBarfield He's very good, but he also had as many red zone targets as Virgil Green last year. All of his touchdowns were 30+ yards. Incredibly hard to sustain what he did last year, let alone with another able pass-catcher in the offense now. @LateRoundQB Small, but fast as lightening in an offensive scheme that fits his athleticism. He benefits greatly from the addition of Watkins pulling away any shut-down corners. At 24 years old he should be able to hold value for many years.
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Diggs could cut into his role a bit and he has to build chemistry with Cousins but he's clearly a studHill can take any touch to the house but Watkins being added and a big QB change could complicate matters
Seth McKinley
FF Fellas
 High risk, high reward
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
With Pat Shurmur out of Minnesota, Thielen could see a major drop in targets. Granted, the quarterback situation has improved, but Dalvin Cook is back and should cut into those targets as well. At Thielen's current ADP, you might want to cool off of him.Last season, Tyreek broke out for 1,183 yards and 7 TDs, but he didn't catch a single red-zone TD. That can't last. Add in Sammy Watkins and downgrade from QB and we are looking at a major drop off in production from season to season.
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Should still put up WR2 numbers in a more agressive offenseWatkins will undoubtedly eat up some of his target share but the Chiefs promise to be much more explosive in 2018
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
Thielen averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game and was one of the most reliable possession receivers in the NFL. He could have even bigger numbers playing with QB Kirk Cousins.Hill had a breakout year in his second season averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. He could be even better if the Chiefs go with QB Patrick Mahomes II. While Mahomes II has little experience, he has a much stronger arm than QB Alex Smith and that could help Hill be an even better deep threat.