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Alvin Kamara Week 14 Outlook - 49ers at Saints

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Dec 5th 2019, 1:07pm EST

It's been a rough season for Kamara, who's found the end zone just twice, and both of those came in the same game way back in Week 3. Since returning from his ankle sprain, Kamara has totaled 39 carries and 37 targets, which amounts to 19.0 opportunities per game. Volume is not an issue for him. On the other hand, Murray needs a positive gamescript, as he's averaged just 7.8 opportunities per game during that time. The 49ers have shown weakness against the run as of late, so the running backs should be busy in this game. Of the production allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the 49ers have allowed 52.3 percent of that to go to running backs, which ranks the 10th-highest mark in football. The 4.26 yards per carry they've allowed is slightly above average, but the lack of touchdowns has crushed running back production overall, as the 0.66 PPR points per opportunity is the best in the league. They've been getting slightly worse as the weeks go on, though. After not allowing a running back to finish better than RB30 over their first six games, the 49ers have allowed a top-18 running back in five of their last six games, including Kenyan Drake twice, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, and Jamaal Williams. The only team who didn't have one was the Ravens last week, as Lamar Jackson steals production from Ingram and the running backs. The production comes on the ground, though, as the 1.21 PPR points per target is the lowest in the NFL. They've allowed just 79.7 PPR points through the air to running backs, by far the lowest mark in the league. Kamara should be played as a low-end RB1 who can explode at any moment, making him a good tournament play, though he's not a cash-game recommendation.

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