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David Montgomery Week 3 Outlook - Bears at Falcons

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Sep 24th 2020, 10:02am EDT

The touch count for the Bears through two weeks is: Montgomery 33, Cohen 15, and Cordarrelle Patterson 14 (yes, I'm counting him as a running back). The way to see that is that Montgomery is the leader in essentially a 55/45 timeshare. That's not great considering the Bears are 2-0 and the gamescript fit his role perfectly in Week 2. He's run extremely well, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and made a few shifty moves in the open field last week that led to a 28-yard receiving touchdown, but will those positive gamescripts continue? They are three-point underdogs in this game, and the Falcons have stopped the run extremely well considering their competition. Despite playing against Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Carson, they've allowed just 3.45 yards per carry through two weeks. There seem to be a variety of ways to score, though, as Carson caught two touchdowns, Elliott rushed for one, while Dak Prescott rushed for three. Montgomery is going to get the goal-line, which is the positive here, as the Bears are implied for 22 points. Where the Falcons struggle is to limit running backs through the air, as they've allowed 15-of-16 passes to be completed for 85 yards and two touchdowns. Since Dan Quinn became the Falcons coach, they've allowed an average of 6.4 receptions per game to running backs. Montgomery can have his role diminish in a highly negative gamescript, though oddsmakers have this as a close game. Plug him in as a low-end RB2 this week. Cohen is officially someone I'm worried about with just three targets through two games. Montgomery has six targets. Heck, Javon Wims has four targets. Cohen is not an early-down back who's going to grind out a high yards per carry. If he's not getting the targets, you can't use him in fantasy. The Falcons matchup suits him well, especially indoors, but he must be classified as a risky RB4/flex with some upside should Matt Nagy actually use him in the passing game.

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