Joshua Kelley Week 4 Outlook - Chargers at Buccaneers
By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Oct 1st 2020, 9:26am EDT
It's clear that this is a timeshare, but you need a positive gamescript in order to trust someone in Kelley's role as anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB3. If we can't trust them to be in a positive gamescript against the league's worst run defense (Panthers), how can we trust him against the league's best run defense (Bucs) who are coming off wins of 14 and 18 points? The Bucs have been the best run defense in the league since the start of last year, allowing just 1,057 rushing yards on 357 carries over a span of 19 games. That amounts to just 2.96 yards per carry and 55.6 rushing yards per game. Whew. Here's the list of running backs who've finished as top-12 options over their last 19 games: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, and Leonard Fournette. If there's any hope for Ekeler, it's through the air, as the Bucs have had some trouble slowing pass catchers out of the backfield. They've actually allowed 51.1 PPR points through the air alone, which ranks as the fourth-most in football. If the Chargers want to slow the Bucs pass rush, they'll need to involve Ekeler in the screen game. Knowing Herbert has targeted him 15 times over the last two weeks, that's a step in the right direction. Ekeler should be in lineups as a mid-to-high-end RB2 this week even though it is a tough matchup. Kelley is going to have a much tougher time in this matchup, as he's not heavily involved in the passing game (four targets through three games). The Bucs have allowed just 13 running backs finish as top-30 options against them since the start of 2019, which is now a span of 19 games. The odds of two running backs getting there when their team-implied total is just 19 points is highly unlikely. Kelley has still totaled six carries inside the 10-yard-line compared to just one for Ekeler, so we can't write off the possibility that he scores a touchdown. But even if he does, you're looking at what might be RB3 numbers. He's just a mediocre RB4 this week in what's projected to be a negative gamescript.
