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Todd Gurley II Week 4 Outlook -

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Oct 1st 2020, 9:47am EDT

If you've watched the Falcons this year, you can tell Gurley isn't going to turn a corner any time soon. You can watch guys like Joe Mixon and think, "He looks good, just hasn't quite hit yet." You cannot say that about Gurley. He's essentially a running back who's getting what's blocked, and fortunately for him, the Falcons offensive line ranks eighth in terms of yards created before contact for their running backs. Against the Packers, we might see another competent fantasy performance out of Gurley, though. They've allowed a massive 5.38 yards per carry through three games, including a rushing touchdown every 18.7 carries. That's where Gurley has to make his mark because if he doesn't score, he's not offering much. Fantasy managers found that out when he totaled just 6.1 PPR points in a game against the Cowboys. The worst part for Gurley is that this team has had a big lead each of the last two weeks, and it's led to 35 carries for 141 yards and one touchdown. The projected gamescript and pace of this game favors pass-catching backs, and Gurley has just two targets over the last two weeks, and that's with Julio Jones out of the lineup last week. In terms of pass routes run, it's been Gurley 47, Hill 35, and Ito Smith 29, so it's split three ways with a quarterback who's not checking down very much. Knowing no running back has totaled more than 12 carries against the Packers, combined with Gurley's limitations in the passing game, he's a bust-risk this week, though touchdowns might save him, as he's gotten 75 percent of the Falcons touches inside the 10-yard-line. He's a RB2/RB3 who's more touchdown dependent than most in that range. Hill is someone who should be rostered with the way Gurley has looked, though you can't start him just yet with just 22 opportunities through three weeks. Whoever gets the most usage in the passing game will likely be the most valuable this week, but there's no clear-cut answer among them.

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