By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Oct 15th 2020, 9:53am EDT
"Here we go again." That's something Mixon managers said last weekend. That's fine. If you missed the last buy-low window on Mixon, you have another one. What his managers don't realize is that there's a major fundamental change in this offense through the last two weeks. Over the first three games, Mixon saw just nine targets while Gio Bernard saw 15 of them. Well, over the last two weeks, Mixon has 14 targets while Bernard has just two of them. Mixon is going to be gamescript-proof if this continues and will eliminate any concern we have about starting him on a weekly basis. Now for the bad news... As mentioned in the Burrow notes, the Colts have allowed just 67.1 fantasy points per game to opponents. That's the lowest mark in the NFL while no other team has allowed less than 78.1 points per game. More bad news: Running backs have accounted for just 31.8 percent of those points. Add it all up and you have the No. 3 defense in the league against fantasy running backs. Is it a fluke? No. Under Matt Eberflus, the Colts have allowed exactly one running back to break the 100-yard barrier, and that was Derrick Henry when he was on his rampage last year. No running back - including Kareem Hunt with 20 carries and Dalvin Cook with 14 carries - has topped 72 yards on the ground against them this year. Now, to be fair, there were five running backs who were able to post RB1 numbers against the Colts last year. Two of them were Henry, while the other three were Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Jaylen Samuels, all running backs who caught at least six passes. The 42.6 points the Colts have allowed on the ground is the fourth-fewest in football, but the 1.59 PPR points per target ranks as the 11th-highest mark in the league. If Mixon is involved in the passing game - as we've seen the last two weeks - he'll be fine as a high-end RB2. If he's not, this sets up as a disappointing game on the ground.