Todd Gurley II Week 11 Outlook -

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 8:20am EST

He's averaging just 3.67 yards per carry and has caught just 15 balls for 79 yards though nine weeks but went into his bye week as the No. 6 running back. That's because he ranked second in the NFL with nine rushing touchdowns. Running backs have averaged 5.4 fewer fantasy points against the Saints than they do versus their season average, which is the biggest gap in the league. When you look at the fantasy points the Saints have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the running backs have only accounted for 26.1 percent of that production, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. So, when you see they've allowed just 18.5 PPR points per game to running backs, it makes sense. That's the second-lowest number in the league, behind only the Steelers. They've allowed just three rushing touchdowns on the season, or one every 59.3 carries, which is the highest number in the league. The 8.37 points per game they allow on the ground ranks as the second-lowest mark in the NFL behind only the Falcons. That's big because Gurley has caught more than two passes just twice all season and hasn't topped 29 receiving yards. Even when you factor in the weighted expectation of fantasy points from targets, the Saints are the No. 1 run defense in the league from a points per opportunity standpoint. Gurley is looking like a touchdown-or-bust option in a matchup that has only generated a touchdown in 33 percent of the Saints games, including none in their last five games. He's a high-variance RB2 this week with a low ceiling who shouldn't be considered in cash games.