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James Robinson Week 11 Outlook - Falcons at Saints

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 8:22am EST

Every time I look at the Jaguars backfield split, I'm amazed. Remember when we played Leonard Fournette as an RB1 every week last year because he had such an incredible floor? Getting 87.8 percent of the backfield touches no matter the offense is going to give you top-10 upside. His projected stat line is awfully close (slightly better) to Chris Carson's 2019 where he had 1,230 rushing yards, 266 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. The next issue is the Steelers run defense, which ranks as the best in the NFL. Running backs have averaged 17.4 percent fewer fantasy points than their seasonal average against the Steelers. Running backs have seen just a 14.3 percent target share against the Steelers, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. That's led to them allowing a league-low 27 receptions on the season to running backs. Doing the math, that's just three receptions per game for running backs. All in all, the Steelers have allowed a piddly 17.7 PPR points per game to running backs, which is the lowest number in the league. It really helps that Robinson has totaled 87.8 percent of the touches in this backfield because the Steelers opponents have averaged a league-low 23.4 running back touches per game. The only running back who's finished better than RB14 since the start of the 2019 season (span of 25 games) was Miles Sanders, who broke a long 70-plus yard touchdown run. Robinson needs to remain in lineups as a stable presence who has at least 16 touches in every game this year, but lower expectations into the RB2 range.

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