Nick Chubb Week 11 Outlook - Eagles at Browns
By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 8:41am EST
The duo was back in full force last week, combining for a massive 41 touches. We figured the Browns might ease Chubb back into action, so it wasn't too shocking to see both him and Hunt finish with 19 carries. Chubb looked as good as ever, ripping off 126 yards and a touchdown against the Texans soft run defense. It should've been 128 yards and two touchdowns, but Chubb did the smart thing and ran out of bounds, which ended the game and ensured the Texans couldn't get the ball back on offense. Based on the 31.6 percent of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact, Chubb has had an expected rate of 3.99 yards per carry according to NFL's NextGenStats. Because he's so darn good, he's averaged 6.07 yards per carry. That 2.08 yards per carry difference is the biggest gap in football. Hunt is averaging 0.65 more yards per carry than expected, but yeah, he's the second best running back on this team. This week's test will be much tougher against an Eagles run defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. No running back has been able to eclipse 81 yards on the ground against them this season, and in fact, the only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against them since the start of last year was Gus Edwards in a meaningless Week 17 game last year. The struggles aren't due to a lack of trying, as the Eagles have faced 23.4 carries per game. There has been just one team of running backs who've totaled more than 103 rushing yards against them this year, and that was the Rams backfield who rushed for 141 yards on 26 carries in Week 2. It's highly unlikely we see two running backs come out of this backfield with top-20 performances. Chubb is fresh and looked great, so he should remain in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the tough matchup. As for Hunt, he's more of a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week who will need to get it done through the air, though there have been just two running backs who've caught more than three passes against the Eagles.
