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Aaron Jones Week 11 Outlook - Packers at Colts

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 9:22am EST

Just as we suspected, the Packers went to more of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones finished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn't ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football. The downside is that they're going from a matchup with the league's third-best matchup for running backs to the one that's the second-toughest for running backs. On average, running backs score 5.3 fewer fantasy points than their league average against the Colts. The only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against Matt Eberflus' defense in his two and a half years there is Derrick Henry. We're talking a 41-game sample size, so this run defense is no joke. If you look at fantasy points allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed 59.9 PPR points per game to all of them combined, which is the lowest number in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks have allowed 57.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers alone. There have been just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 188.8 PPR points to the running back position, and the Colts are one of them, as they've allowed just 174.1 PPR points through their nine games (19.6 per game). This is not great for a timeshare. If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that they've allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is more of an unappealing RB4 for this game who has a limited ceiling against a team who's faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, which might leave him 7-10 touches in a tough matchup.

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