Jordan Wilkins Week 11 Outlook -

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 9:23am EST

I can't tell you how many followers have asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it's tough to say that my guess is any better than theirs. Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, outside of the fact that Taylor has been slowly declining. Hines looked extremely good on Thursday night, but he's looked good before and hasn't received a lot of touches. Wilkins will likely lose touches after alligator-arming his goal-line target that easily could've gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don't have a clear play here, as the Packers are a team to target with running backs. Running backs have averaged 0.21 more fantasy points per play against the Packers than they do on average. That's the highest mark in the NFL, though their opponents have struggled to rack up plays. When you look at the production they've allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the most in the NFL. By comparison, running backs account for just 24.9 percent of the production the Falcons give up goes to running backs. When comparing production allowed to running backs and wide receivers, the Packers have allowed just 2.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams allow about 12.0 more PPR points per game to wide receivers than running backs. It's not just on the ground, either, as running backs have seen a massive 22.9 percent target share against them (4th in NFL). Despite the Packers facing just 28.0 touches per game to running backs (right around the league average), they've allowed the second-most PPR points per game to them. That's because they're allowing a rushing touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is more often than any other team in the league. They've also allowed a league-high 7.40 yards per target and 1.94 PPR points per target through the air to running backs. All in all, the Packers have allowed more fantasy points per opportunity to running backs than any team in the league. The problem is that we don't know who to trust in this backfield. If Taylor doesn't get it done here, he's droppable. I'm willing to take the risk and play him as an upside RB3. Hines falls into a similar space, whose floor should be higher than Taylor's, though as referenced in the chart above, he's hardly a guarantee for more than five touches. Wilkins should lose more touches and fall into RB4 territory.