Ronald Jones II Week 11 Outlook -

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 9:33am EST

Did you need a reminder to never fully trust any Bucs running back? It seemed like Jones would be on the bench for the remainder of the game after fumbling on their first drive, but Bruce Arians went back to him after watching Fournette drop an easy pass in the flats. Jones proceeded to rip off a big run that led to a career day on the ground, racking up 198 total yards and a touchdown. Here's a fun stat: Based on the number of eight-man defensive fronts and yards before contact a running back has, they have an expected yards per carry. Based on that number from NFL's NextGenStats, Jones is averaging 1.41 more yards per carry than the average running back would, which ranks fourth to only Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert, and Dalvin Cook. The Rams are dominant against the pass, but they've also been pretty good against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to them. As far as carries go, teams are averaging 19.4 carries per game against them (fourth-fewest), which is detrimental to Jones' role as the primary two-down back, as he still concedes about 40-45 percent of the carries to Fournette over the last month. They allow just 4.03 per carry, so it's not like efficiency has been great. The Rams have allowed near the league average in yards per target (5.62) to running backs, which bodes well for Fournette, who sees nearly twice the targets that Jones does. But all-in-all, the Rams rank as the fourth-toughest opponent based on weighted opportunity. This isn't a game to expect a repeat performance out of Jones, who should be viewed as a high-end RB3 who comes with risk of touching the ball less than 15 times. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Fournette has a bigger game based on the strengths and weaknesses of the matchup, so he remains in the RB3 territory.