Nick Chubb Week 12 Outlook - Browns at Jaguars
By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Wed, Nov 25th 2020, 7:26pm EST
Chubb has now played in six games this year. He's totaled 100-plus rushing yards in four of them. He's averaging a league-high 6.0 yards per carry, and it's not just the offense. According to NFL's NextGenStats, Chubb should be averaging just 4.4 yards per carry based on the number of defenders he's seen in the box and the yards before contact he's been given. The 1.61-yard difference is the most in the NFL, as no other running back has a gap larger than 1.32 yards. Now he gets to go against the Jaguars? It seems unfair. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game overall to their opponents, and we know the Browns run-game makes up for most of the production. Where do all the fantasy points they've allowed come from? Well, they've allowed a massive 29.8 points per game to their opponents and the Browns team-implied total sits at 27.5 points, so we're likely to see multiple touchdowns out of the Browns backfield this week. The issue is this... Chubb has seen 34.2 percent of the Browns' carries this year, but has seen just 22.6 percent of their carries inside the red zone, so it's clear they trust Kareem Hunt quite a bit in that area of the field. Chubb has also seen just five targets on the season, which essentially means he's touchdown or bust. When I say bust, it's a relative term, as he's viewed as an RB1 in fantasy leagues. Knowing both Joe Mixon and D'Andre Swift were able to rack up 115-plus rushing yards and two touchdowns apiece against them, Chubb is going to be okay. Start him as a low-end RB1 who should score at least once. As for Hunt, he's still received 37 opportunities in the last two games with Chubb back, and though they were certainly aided by the weather, this game should be aided by the lack of competition. Running backs have faced an average of 29.7 running back touches per game, while the Browns running backs have averaged 30.9 running back touches per game. That's more than enough for both of these running backs to be viable, so feel free to start Hunt as a mid-tier RB2 this week.
