Matt Ryan Week 12 Outlook -

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Wed, Nov 25th 2020, 7:44pm EST

With Julio Jones in and out of the game for big chunks of the game, Ryan struggled as he has all season when Jones has been out. It's pretty ugly. In the four games that Jones has missed all or significant time in, here are Ryan's passing totals: 238/1/1, 285/0/0, 226/0/1, and 232/0/2. If Jones were to be held out for this game, you have to downgrade Ryan. The Saints generated a lot of pressure (rank fifth in the NFL with an 8.29 percent sack rate), which led to Ryan getting happy feet. It should help to know the Raiders generate a sack on just 2.80 percent of dropbacks, which is the second-lowest number in the league. They've faced plenty of pass attempts (38.1 per game), but despite that lack of pressure, they've held quarterbacks to a pedestrian 7.33 yards per attempt and a 4.20 percent touchdown-rate. Adding in everything, they've allowed just 0.440 fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which ranks as the 12th-lowest mark in football. Still, volume has carried six quarterbacks to top-15 performances against the Raiders, though it's worth noting that two of those performances were Patrick Mahomes, one was Justin Herbert, one was Josh Allen, and one was Tom Brady. None of them averaged over 8.47 yards per attempt, and just one of them threw for more than two touchdowns, so it's tough to see the ceiling that oddsmakers do, as the Falcons are projected for 26.3 points in this game. If Jones plays, Ryan would enter the low-end QB1 conversation, but if Jones sits this one out, I'd downgrade Ryan into the QB14-16 range.