Josh Jacobs Week 12 Outlook - Bears at Packers

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Wed, Nov 25th 2020, 7:44pm EST

After failing to score in 5-of-6 games from Week 2 through Week 8, Jacobs has bounced back and scored four touchdowns over the last three weeks. He's received at least 14 carries in 9-of-10 games this year, which is great news, though the matchup in Week 12 might cause some issues. We all know Jacobs isn't heavily involved in the passing game by now, right? He's seen just seven targets over the last four games combined. Well, this is a problem because the Falcons have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs. If you remove all the receiving totals against them, running backs have averaged just 9.1 fantasy points per game, which is behind only the Saints. Of the fantasy production the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for just 25.7 percent of it. Again, the only team who's allowed a lower percentage is the Saints, a team we try to avoid with running backs. It doesn't help that running backs have combined to touch the ball just 23.9 times per game against the Falcons, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league. They've allowed just 3.63 yards per carry and a touchdown every 46.0 carries, which means it'll be tough for Jacobs to smash on the ground, though his 29.3-point team implied total is golden. Through the air, the Falcons have allowed 5.5 receptions and 40.6 yards per game to running backs, so we must hope the Raiders get him involved there, though it's concerning they haven't targeted him more than four times since way back in Week 1. He also hasn't topped 25 receiving yards since Week 1. You're going to start him as a high-end RB2 in this game because of the scoring potential but understand the Falcons have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.